Each week going forward, we’re going to look at some of the commonly held misconceptions regarding the upcoming Patriots game. This week, we take a look at the five myths surrounding New England’s Sunday afternoon date with the Dolphins in Miami.
•The Patriots will run to set up the pass.
Conventional wisdom says that you need to establish the run to open things up and pass the ball. For what it’s worth, New England has done an excellent job when it comes to running the ball consistently, particularly over the last month. Stevan Ridley has evolved into one of the best young running backs in the league, and is on pace to do something that no other Patriots running back has accomplished since Corey Dillon in 2004 -- finish with 300 or more carries and average 4.0 yards per carry.
However, the Miami run defense is one of the stoutest in the league -- the Dolphins yield an average of 96.7 rushing yards pr game, seventh-best in the NFL. While the Patriots will take their chances on the ground in hopes of softening up the defense -- and likely work in more rushes in the second half if they’re up by two scores and trying to kill the clock -- the real gains for the Patriots offense will be made through the air against a Miami pass defense that has shown an inability to stop anyone.
The Dolphins have yielded six 300-yard passers this year, and give up 262 yards per game (26th in the league). They’ve also allowed 43 passes of 20-plus plays this year, fifth-most in the NFL. As for the Patriots, they’re the fourth-best passing offense in the league (292.1 yards per game), and quarterback Tom Brady has 821 passing yards and five touchdowns in his last two games against Miami. Throw the ball early and often against a Dolphins’ defense that was signing street free agents this week in hopes of provided depth at defensive back.
•This is a trap game.
The idea of a trap game involving the Dolphins disappeared long ago, thanks in large part to Tom Brady. With the exception of the 2009 Patriots (perhaps the most mentally weak team of the Bill Belichick era) New England no longer lets its guard down when it goes down to South Beach.
There have been fluky losses, to be sure, including a miserable Monday Night defeat to the Dolphins in 2004. But Brady, who once considered Miami his personal house of horrors, has dominated as of late. In his last four games in Miami, Brady is 91-for-126 (a remarkable 72 percent completion percentage) with 1,376 yards passing, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. There is no way that this quarterback -- who is at the helm of one of the most prolific offenses in history through 11 games -- will allow the New England offense to fall into a trap.
•The heat will play a role.
In the early stages of the 21st century, the heat was in the Patriots’ heads -- several former players recalled situations where New England tried just about everything possible to try and beat the high temps of South Florida, including flying down to Florida early in hopes of getting acclimated to things and taping over air conditioners in the locker room with trash bags. That’s not the case anymore -- if New England was truly worried about the temps this time of year in Miami, they would have done more than practice outside in 30-degree conditions all week in Foxboro. As long as players stay hydrated throughout, the heat shouldn’t be a problem.
•Ryan Tannehill is a chump, and an easy mark for Belichick and the New England defense.
We detailed Belichick’s recent track record against rookie quarterbacks here, but it’s worth mentioning that the last six rookie signal-callers who have gone against Belichick for the first time have gone 4-2. (New England is 1-1 against first-year quarterbacks this year, losing to Seattle’s Russell Wilson but delivering a beatdown to Indy’s Andrew Luck.)
Physically, Tannehill is closer to Wilson than he is to Luck (Tannehill ran a 4.58 40-yard dash, which was faster than Luck’s 4.67 combine mark), which should be a cause for concern for the Patriots, who had issues with containment when it came to Wilson. It’s not like he’s going to keep plays alive with his feet, but if a play breaks down, he’s shown an ability to make things happen outside the pocket. He’s also on a bit of a roll. The Dolphins entered the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Seahawks trailing, 14-7, but 17 fourth-quarter points (led by two 80-yard touchdown drives from Tannehill) allowed the Dolphins to finish with the win.
Ultimately, he’s raw and prone to turnovers (he has seven touchdown passes and 12 picks), but the Dolphins win when he doesn’t turn it over -- he has one interception and zero lost fumbles in the Miami’s five wins.
•We won’t know any more about the Patriots after this game.
It’s been suggested that this game won’t be a true litmus test for the Patriots, particularly because the powerful 49ers and Texans loom later in the month. Nonsense. Even though Miami’s 5-6 record isn’t at the same lofty levels as San Francisco (8-2-1) and Houston (10-1), there are some statistical comparisons that can be extracted from this game and used going forward.
1) The Dolphins, 49ers and Texans are all in the Top 7 when it comes to run defense, and if the Patriots will be able to run the ball consistently against Miami when they get the chance, they will likely approach the San Francisco (fourth in the league with an average of 91.1 rushing yards allowed) and Houston (second in the league at 87.5) games with a reasonable idea of what their running game can do against a group of elite run-stuffers.
2) Likewise, it’ll be an opportunity to go against a young mobile quarterback -- while Tannehill (he spent time at wide receiver in college) doesn’t have the wheels that Colin Kaepernick does, it will present a reasonable facsimile (in a game situation) of what the Patriots might face in a few weeks against the Niners when it comes to chasing down and containing a rookie quarterback who hasn’t been phased by much to this point in his first season.
3) And finally, it will be another opportunity for New England’s secondary to gain snaps as a group and learn more about their tendencies. The last two games, defensive backs have fallen into a pretty familiar rotation, with Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard at corner and Devin McCourty and Steve Gregory at safety. (When the Patriots go to nickel and dime coverage, look for safety Pat Chung and corner Kyle Arrington to provide depth.) The increased reps together as a group will only make things better. They’ll get more snaps alongside each other against the Dolphins.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
Matt joined the program to discuss his first ever cornhole contest and to break down the Patriots offseason. He told the guys that he was upset that the Pats were unable to bring Wes Welker back to the team.
Tom Brady joined the program to discuss his upcoming charitable event supporting Best Buddies and his off-season. Tom said that he has learned not to worry about free agency decisions since he cant control any of them. Lastly he defended his over the top celebration at the Kentucky Derby.
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Jackie MacMullan joins Mut and Merloni to discuss the latest rumors surrounding Celtics head coach Doc Rivers and whether he'll be back next season with the team.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Pedro Ciriaco joined Joe & Dave after the 3rd game of the Indians series. The Sox utilityman had three hits in the Sox' come-from-behind win.
Dave talked to the Sox skipper before the 3rd game of the Indians series. John said that the starting rotation is shaping into form.
John Ryder talked to Rob from WEEI.com before the game. Rob said that John Lackey isn't having command problems, unlike many Tommy John patients.
Shawn Thornton talks about what went wrong in Game 4 for the Bruins.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss his reaction to game 4 of the Bruins-Rangers series, and how he sees the rest of the series playing out
Barry joined the program to discuss the Bruins disappointing loss last night at MSG. He said that he was impressed with how Rask responded to questions after the game.
Barry joined the program to discuss the Bruins disappointing loss last night at MSG. He said that he was impressed with how Rask responded to questions after the game.
Dave Maloney returned to the show to discuss his Rangers unlikely win in game 4. He said that in all his years playing and calling hockey games he had not seen a softer goal than the one Rask allowed.
Andy from Dartmouth called in to talk Bruins but the discussion quickly got off track when he mentioned his nine bee hives.
McGuire joins the show to discuss the sub-par performance from Tuukka Rask, the Bruins young defensemen, and the potential for the Rangers to get back in the series.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss his reaction to game 4 of the Bruins-Rangers series, and how he sees the rest of the series playing out
Kevin Millar joins the show to discuss the slumps of Jacoby Ellsbury and Will Middlebrooks, Tito's return to Fenway, and his reaction Dan Shaunghnessy's controversial column.
Shawn Thornton calls in to talk about the Bruins losing in Game 4.
Tom Brady appeared with D and C this morning and talked about the team's OTA's, the comings and goings, and most importantly what went down when Wes Welker left town, and how does he feel about it?
Four guys, four topics we haven't mentioned today. Mark Sanchez, the Pacers blow it and more.
The Bruins look to take a 3-0 series lead, Jon Lester gets his first loss, Dwight Howard has options in free agency.
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins have a 2-0 lead over the New york Rangers, the Red Sox are back on the winning sde of things, and the noteable birthdays of the day.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Callers bitch about the Bruins loss, and we answer how long it takes to get over a relationship.
Kirk's still a jerk, but we want a SWEEP!
The Jerks are joined by another, Jerk Minihane.
Tom Brady joined the program to discuss his upcoming charitable event supporting Best Buddies and his off-season. Tom said that he has learned not to worry about free agency decisions since he cant control any of them. Lastly he defended his over the top celebration at the Kentucky Derby.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showA fiery Bobby Valentine joined Glenn Ordway and Michael Holley and fired back about rumors of him being late to the ballpark, the perception that he's given up on the year, and more on the 2012 Red Sox debacle.
More from this showCallers bitch about the Bruins loss, and we answer how long it takes to get over a relationship.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this show