Andrew Luck has history on his side.
On Sunday, the 2012 first overall pick will become the 10th rookie quarterback to make a start against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. That hasn’t exactly been too daunting a task in recent years, as the last five rookie signal-callers to start against the Patriots for the first time have gone 4-1 in those contests. Prior to that stretch, which began with Ben Roethlisberger beating the Pats in 2004, all four rookie quarterbacks that Belichick had faced had fallen to the Patriots.
Now, Luck, who has helped folks in Indianapolis forget about Peyton Manning by leading the Colts to a 6-3 record in his first season as a pro, will have his chance to join the likes of Russell Wilson, Colt McCoy, Mark Sanchez and Roethlisberger as rookie quarterbacks to defeat the Pats.
It's worth noting that Bill Belichick has never faced a No. 1 overall pick quarterback as a rookie since coming to New England. For what it's worth, rookie first-round quarterbacks are 2-4 against Belichick's Patriots, with Sanchez the most recent to pull out a victory.
Here’s a rundown of how rookie quarterbacks have done against Belichick since he’s been in New England (non-starters in italics):

Looking at the list -- other than the fact that all of the Patriots' losses to rookies QBs in this stretch occurred away from home -- there are some things that jump out at you, particularly as they relate to Luck:
On Wednesday, it was interesting to hear Bill Belichick talk about the Colts offense having many similarities to what the Steelers have done for many years because of Indy offensive coordinator and interim head coach Bruce Arians. One of the rookie quarterbacks to beat Belichick and the Patriots was Roethlisberger in 2004. (Arians was wide receivers coach that season, but the offensive schemes remained fundamentally the same for the duration of Arians' time in Pittsburgh, where he was the receivers coach from 2004 through 2006 and the offensive coordinator from 2007 through 2011.)
According to Arians, Luck has bought into the system “hook, line and sinker.”
“There are certain aspects of the game that he likes better than what Ben liked, and then I’ll try to [say], ‘Hey, this works pretty good,’ and pull some tape out and show him the stuff that we like against different teams,” Arians said of Luck. “It is fun. It’s fun because he’s a very talented, very humble guy and the sky’s the limit how good this guy is going to be. I hope and pray he can do the things that Ben did and win as many games and Super Bowls that he did.”
If Luck wants to duplicate Roethlisberger’s rookie effort against New England, he certainly can lean on Arians. On that afternoon in 2004, Roethlisberger wasn’t particularly overwhelming -- he went 18-for-24 for 196 yards, with two touchdowns and zero interceptions -- but he didn’t make many mistakes and was smart with the football against a Super Bowl-winning defense. Every rookie quarterback who has beaten the Patriots under Bill Belichick has been smart with the football -- they have not thrown a single pick in any of their games against New England.
They also usually understand that they can’t win the game on their own. In 2004, after guiding the Steelers to a 31-10 second-half lead, Roethlisbeger was canny enough to put the game in the hands of Duce Staley (25 carries, 125 yards) and Jerome Bettis (15 carries, 65 yards, one touchdown). While Wilson didn’t get a particularly effective performance out of his running game last month, he got an excellent effort out of his receivers -- across the board, Sidney Rice (three catches, 81 yards), Doug Baldwin (two catches, 74 yards) and Golden Tate (three catches, 47 yards) helped make things easier for Wilson.
While there are a lot of similarities between the performances of Roethlisberger and Wilson -- smart, effective and mobile -- the one that jumps off the page is Colt McCoy. Rewatching that 2010 game, McCoy wasn’t particularly mobile, but he was amazingly efficient, finishing with a 74 percent completion rate. He and the Browns were able to capitalize on New England’s mistakes. And like Roethlisberger in 2004, he was able to guide his team to an early lead and then rely on the running game to help shut the door. In that game, Peyton Hillis ran for a ridiculous 184 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries.
(The one exception to the rule appears to be Jets QB Mark Sanchez, who defeated the Patriots in his first start against New England in 2009. In that one, he stayed away from turnovers but wasn’t particularly outstanding, at least not from a numbers perspective. The one thing he did have in common with the rest of the rookies who knocked off the Patriots was that he was able to rely on his teammates -- Leon Washington and Thomas Jones both rushed for more than 50 yards, and New England stalled out in the red zone three times in the game.)
One other thing to look for: mobility. Most of the rookie quarterbacks who have had the most success against Bill Belichick and the Patriots have been mobile guys. Roethlisberger isn’t the fastest quarterback in the world, but he does well when he’s on the move, and he’s hard to bring down.
In 2006, Vince Young was able to keep plays alive with his feet, but he ultimately was overwhelmed by the New England defense, which sacked him six times. Against the Seahawks earlier this season, Wilson was very good at not only making plays with his legs, but making defenders miss. He finished that game 16-for-27 for 293 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, leading Seattle to a 24-23 win.
On Wednesday, Belichick lauded Luck’s mobility and said the Colts are trying to allow him to extend plays with his feet -- not unlike what Arians and the Steelers have done in the past with Roethlisberger.
“He’s a terrific athlete. This guy can really run, he’s fast. There’s no question about his athletic ability and running skill,” Belichick said. “He’s probably as fast as anybody we’ve played. We’ve played a couple of guys that can run, but I’d put him right up there with them. He can cover a lot of ground, he’s very athletic.”
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
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Sauce Man stylings!
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