Here are the 10 premiere matchups for Sunday’s contest between the Patriots and Jets.
Wide receiver Wes Welker against cornerback Antonio Cromartie. In the past, the Jets have utilized Darrelle Revis against Welker, but with Revis on the shelf because of a season-ending knee injury he suffered a few weeks ago, look for the Jets to try and counter Welker with their second-best corner in Cromartie. Cromartie may occasionally slip into self-parody, but he has certainly stepped up his game in the wake of Revis’ injury. Always a good cover corner, Cromartie has seven passes defensed and three picks on the season. (For more on what the Patriots think of Cromartie, click through to Mike Petraglia's story here.) Welker’s role in the passing game may continue to evolve as Aaron Hernandez keeps working his way back to full health, but he will almost certainly play a sizable role Sunday against New York.
Running back Stevan Ridley against defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson. Ridley has had an up-and-down season -- whether it’s been because of game-plan decisions or his own performance, his game log chart is all over the place. Remarkably, he’s had three games where he’s gone over 100 yards on the ground, but also two performances where he’s had less than 40. (Predictably, in games where he’s topped the century mark, the Patriots are 3-0.) Wilkerson has been one of New York’s most impressive run defenders on the season -- according to Pro Football Focus, he’s the second-best defensive end in the league against the run at +14.3, trailing only the freakish J.J. Watt (+14.5). When New England runs, expect the Patriots to run away from Wilkerson, who usually lines up at the left defensive end in their 3-4 base. (If the Patriots do run to Wilkerson's side, expect Rob Gronkowski to offer support.)
Linebacker Brandon Spikes against quarterback/running back Tim Tebow. No one is sure just how much the Jets are going to use Tebow on Sunday -- Ryan has even hinted that he’ll get some snaps at running back -- but Spikes will inevitably be involved in slowing his former Florida teammate. The key to containing Tebow for the Patriots is gap discipline -- make sure that Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich keep containment and force him back inside, where linebackers Spikes and Jerod Mayo will be waiting. For what it’s worth, the same theory applies to the rest of the Jets’ running game (including Shonn Greene). Spikes continues to be New England’s best and most consistent run stopper, and is a large reason why the Patriots’ run defense is fifth-best in the league. (The Patriots allow 82.7 rushing yards per game.)
Tight end Rob Gronkowski against safety LaRon Landry. We detailed the reasons behind New York’s acquisition of Landry -- fundamentally, to try and stop Gronkowski -- and as a result, this should be one of the best individual matchups of the afternoon. Landry, at 6-feet and 213 pounds, will likely get some help from fellow safety Yeremiah Bell, another safety the Jets imported to try and stop New England’s tight ends. The two aren’t the best pass defenders on the New York roster, but their bulk and speed should help the Jets when it comes to trying to corral the big fella. (Basically, New York wants to do anything to avoid last year’s nightmare, where Gronkowski had eight catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns in a November matchup between the Patriots and Jets. If they can somehow hold Gronk under that, it’ll be a win for New York.)
Defensive end Chandler Jones against left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Through six games, Jones has been the best rookie on the New England roster, and one of the best in the league. He leads the team in quarterback hits (eight) and sacks (five), and has been able to generate consistent pressure off the edge. Meanwhile, Ferguson has been the Jets’ pass blocker, grading out at +4.1 over the course of the first six games and not allowing a single sack (per Pro Football Focus). Who wins the Jones/Ferguson battle will determine how successful New York is when it comes to throwing the football. If Jones can successfully beat Ferguson off the edge, it’ll force Sanchez to get rid of the ball fast, creating more opportunities for the New England pass defense.
Left tackle Nate Solder against outside linebacker Calvin Pace or defensive end Mike Devito. Not sure how much of a correlation there might be between the two, but without Revis, the Jets have struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jets have just nine sacks over the first six games of the season, and very little of that pressure has come from the right side of the line -- Pace and Devito have done little to strike fear in opposing offensive linemen, as they have a combined one sack and two quarterback hits on their side. Expect the Jets to try and shake things up with some blitz packages to generate some pressure on Tom Brady.
Defensive lineman Vince Wilfork against center Nick Mangold. It won’t be the marquee battle we’ll see on the edge, but these two old warriors will meet again in the trenches, and the winner of this individual matchup will decide if the Jets’ ground-and-pound approach pays off against the Patriots, or if New England’s run defense will again rise to the challenge. There’s been plenty of artificial hype around the New England/New York rivalry over the last couple of seasons, but when it comes to the Wilfork/Mangold matchup, there’s genuine respect on both sides -- Wilfork said this week that Mangold was one of the best in the game, while Mangold said, “He’s easily the best defensive tackle in the game.” One of the best matchups of the afternoon.
Cornerback Devin McCourty against wide receiver Stephen Hill. The Patriots' best and most consistent defensive back meets the rookie out of Georgia Tech who has emerged as a deep threat in his first season with the Jets. Hill hasn’t been used all that much, so expect McCourty also to see time against some of the other young receivers like Jeremy Kerley. McCourty and the rest of the New England secondary need a pick-me-up, and can get one this week against a New York passing game that has thrown for 1,106 passing yards (30th in the league), averages 184 yards per game (30th in the league) and a 50 percent completion percentage (32nd in the league).
Defensive end/linebacker Rob Ninkovich against quarterback Mark Sanchez. Ninkovich, one of New England's most versatile -- and invaluable -- defenders has been moved around over the course of the first six games, playing both left and right defensive end, as well as dropping back into his old familiar role of linebacker. Wherever he’s been, he’s been a nuisance for opposing offenses -- he has three forced fumbles and claimed a pair of sacks this season. (That’s coming off a year where he was only one of two players in the league with at least six sacks and two picks.) The last time these two teams met, Ninkovich came away with a pair of interceptions against Sanchez.
The Patriots special teamers against the Jets punt team. The Jets have run three fake punts in six games, and so New England has to be aware of the possibility that New York will run a fake. Through six games, the Patriots have not had to deal with a fake punt.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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