After suffering a surprising 24-23 loss to the Seahawks in Seattle, the Patriots return to Foxboro this week to face their divisional rivals from New York. While this matchup doesn’t boast the marquee showdown of last week’s game against the Seahawks -- when the Patriots brought the top offense into the contest against Seattle’s No. 1 defense -- this is a game with no shortage of storylines. In this edition of “Scout’s Take,” one NFL scout who has watched both the Patriots and the Jets takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for New England heading into Sunday’s game. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)
“The Jets will not want to put the ball in Mark Sanchez’s hands too much, regardless of New England’s recent struggles in the secondary. Instead, New York will try to establish the run and try to get big chunks with the play-action pass. The Jets don’t seem to trust Sanchez or their offensive line enough to drop back and pass 40 times a game, particularly against a defensive line that includes Chandler Jones. Also, Sanchez is most effective when you don’t put it all on his shoulders, and the Jets also lack weapons in the passing game.”
With the Patriots’ recent struggles in pass defense, it would seem to be a good opportunity for the Jets to try to throw, using options in the passing game like speedy young receivers Stephen Hill (eight catches, 103 yards, a team-leading three receiving touchdowns) or Jeremy Kerley (18 catches, 315 yards, two touchdowns). However, it remains to be seen how much the Jets trust Sanchez to open things up. Instead, look for them to cautiously try to mix things up, even against a New England run defense that has been very stout to this point in the season. (The New England run defense is sixth in the league, giving up an average of 82.7 yards per game.) Expect New York to look for opportunities in the passing game out of play action.
“When it comes to defending Tim Tebow, the Patriots have faced Tony Sparano and the wildcat before. The only difference is now he will have a guy that can pass the ball. They also had that in Miami with Pat White, but for the Patriots, it shouldn’t be a problem. Remember that Bill Belichick was the guy that solved the wildcat puzzle when it was used in Miami.”
The Jets have utilized Tebow in several different ways, including working as a part-time wildcat quarterback. When Tebow works in relief of Sanchez, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the New England front seven rely on the same formula it used last season when it came to slowing down Tebow: Focus on maintaining gap discipline and making sure you don’t overrun the play. Defensive end Chandler Jones and outside linebacker/defensive end Rob Ninkovich must work to contain the quarterback from getting outside -- force him back into running lanes between the tackles, where linebackers like Brandon Spikes and Jerod Mayo can meet him in those gaps.
“Ultimately, the Patriots will exploit the Jets defense by using matchups and the Jets' tendencies against them. New York has a number of defensive holes, and Belichick is the master of game-planning to exploit weaknesses of schemes or particular players. Brady and the offense will have to execute without giving the ball away.”
The Patriots certainly have the advantage when it comes to several key matchups in this one, including the passing game, where the season-ending injury to cornerback Darrelle Revis has forced the Jets to make some defensive adjustments. (After the loss of one of the best defenders in the league, it’s a credit to the Jets that they are still fifth in the league against the pass, yielding an average of 209.3 yards per game.) However, while cornerback Antonio Cromartie certainly has stepped his game up in the absence of Revis, it appears that New York doesn’t have the depth at defensive back and safety to match New England’s options in the passing game, particularly the combination of wide receivers Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. It’s also worth noting that even in the wake of the struggles in the running game last week against the Seahawks, look for New England to try to run the ball against the Jets, who are 28th in the league against the run, allowing 150.5 yards per game.
“To close out games, the Patriots must be able to control the clock with some form of running game, and defensive playmakers need to make plays at those moments in the game when they need to. And frankly, you also can’t turn the ball over as many times as they did late against Seattle. Those extra possessions give the opponent the opportunities to capitalize on defensive weaknesses. In the end, I think games like that are also learning experiences for a young defense. It’s important to remember that the Patriots have always done a good job of getting better as the season goes along. They had the same issues last year but played well enough in the end to get to the Super Bowl.”
Closing out games remains an issue for the Patriots, who have three losses by a combined four points, with all three of those losses the result of fourth-quarter errors. In the wake of late defeats to the Ravens and Seahawks in which they lost late leads, New England has to have a stronger finishing kick. On offense, that means a more sustained running game in the fourth quarter to try to control the clock via their four-minute offense. On defense, that means an ability to get off the field on third down. In addition, Seattle was able to take advantage of two fourth-quarter interceptions of Brady, something you can’t do against a good young team. But as the scout mentioned, the 2011 Patriots had many of the same problems, and they came within one missed connection between Brady and Welker of winning another Super Bowl. Last year’s team improved as the season went on in several of the same areas that are currently bedeviling this season’s team. It will be interesting to see if the 2012 squad can show the same kind of improvement as the season goes on.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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