In a battle between one of the league’s best offenses and the league’s toughest defenses, the Patriots will try and stretch their winning streak to three Sunday when they face the Seahawks in Seattle. In this edition of “Scout’s Take,” one NFC scout who has watched both the Patriots and the Seahawks takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for New England heading into Sunday’s game. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)
“The Patriots have to control the line of scrimmage and gang tackle to stop Marshawn Lynch. He is a relentless and physical runner. The Seahawks have to and are going to run the football -- they need to run the football to make the play-action pass and the athletic ability of the quarterback a viable option. They must also cover up the passing windows by getting hands up in throwing lanes to affect his vision when he is in the pocket. When he gets outside the pocket, they must mug up on the wide receivers.”
The philosophy of any Bill Belichick-coached defense starts with taking away the No. 1 offensive option. With the Seahawks, that starts and ends with running back Marshawn Lynch, who has 508 yards on 113 carries this season, a bruising 4.5 yards per carry. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Patriots try and bring as many different defenders down into the box to try and stop the run -- specifically, Lynch -- and make Seattle a one-dimensional offense. (Linebacker Brandon Spikes, who plays with an edge every time he hits the field as one of New England’s No. 1 run stoppers, will face another challenge this week with the physical Lynch.) The 5-foot-11, 206-pound Wilson is a few inches shorter than most quarterbacks, so expect the Patriots to not only try and push the pocket, but do it with their hands up in hopes of knocking down some of Wilson’s passes. (Should be an interesting week for New England’s longest pass rusher, the 6-foot-5 defensive end Chandler Jones.) While the Seahawks are a run-first team, expect the New England defensive backs to at least try and get physical with the Seattle receivers, particularly when Wilson leaves the pocket.
“It will be tougher for the Patriots to run the ball on Seattle than it was against the Broncos and Bills. Seattle’s front four is big and physical inside, and their linebackers can run. However, they can be exploited if you can get blockers on them. New England also must be alert for safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the run game as well. Both show up there often.”
The Seahawks show a real commitment to team defense, as evidenced by the fact that they are at or near the top of the league in most major defensive categories, including total defense (first in the NFL at 258.6 yards per game), points allowed per game (second in the league at 14) and rushing yards allowed per game (third in the league at 66.6 yards per game). By all accounts, they are big, fast and physical, from front to back. Part of whether or not the Patriots lean on the run as much as they did the last two weeks depends on how the Seahawks decide to defend them. If Seattle decides to utilize more nickel and dime packages and try and load up to stop the pass -- like the Broncos and Bills -- expect New England to go run first. But even if Seattle does go with extra defensive backs, don’t expect it to have the problems defending the run like Denver and Buffalo because the Seahawks’ defensive backs are bigger than most.
“Aaron Hernandez’s return could potentially help the production of Welker, depending on how Seattle matches up. They may try to put Brandon Browner on Hernandez when he’s flexed out, which will create favorable matchup for Welker. Welker, Edelman and Lloyd could have success in their individual matchups.”
At this point, it’s unsure as to whether or not Aaron Hernandez will return from an ankle injury he suffered in a Week Two loss to the Cardinals. He was at practice last Friday and again on Wednesday, and so there’s certainly reason to be optimistic about his situation. If he does return, that would create more possibilities for the New England offense to put stress on the Seahawks’ defense. If cornerback Brandon Browner -- rated by Pro Football Focus as Seattle’s second-best defensive back in pass coverage -- is attached to Hernandez, that could potentially create opportunities for Welker.
“The Seahawks have to control the tempo of the game to beat New England. Their strong suit on defense is their physical secondary and big corners that will try to rough up outside wide receivers and affect the timing of passing game. That’s contrary to Patriots attack. They must limit New England offensive possessions and create some turnovers. They are going to need to get two to three extra possessions with turnovers. There is something magical about the 12th man, and the Patriots must not allow Seattle to gain any extra energy from their crowd.”
While New England probably won't be as fast as it has been in recent weeks, controlling the Patriots’ offensive tempo will be the biggest challenge for the bigger Seattle defense, which will likely try and get as physical as possible with the New England pass catchers in hopes of disrupting their timing. Expect lots of jamming right off the line, and the Seahawks defensive backs will likely test the limits of what they can and can’t get away with when it comes to physically bodying up on the Patriots’ skill position players. Seattle doesn’t necessarily do a great job forcing turnovers -- it’s minus-one heading into this week, tied for 17th in the league -- but the Seahawks will likely need to force a couple this week to get Brady and the Patriots’ offense out of their game. And finally, New England must take the crowd out of the game early. Seattle is the loudest place in the league, and when the Seahawks are rolling, they feed off the crowds’ energy.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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