As they say around Foxboro, the hay is in the barn.
The pre-draft process, which begins during the college football season, stretches through the all-star games, the combine and the private workouts, pro days and official visits, comes to an end this week as the 77th annual NFL draft will roll out over the next three days.
The Patriots have six picks -- two in the first round (No. 27 and 31 overall) and two in the second (48 and 62 overall), as well as one in the third round (93) and one in the fourth (126). The Pats sent their fifth-round pick to Cincinnati last summer for wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, and they dealt their sixth- and seventh-rounders in September 2010 for linebacker Tracy White (Philadelphia) and safety Jarrad Page (Kansas City).
Traditionally, the Patriots have been one of the more active teams when it comes to making moves on draft weekend. Since Bill Belichick became coach of the Patriots in 2000, New England has made 46 draft day trades -- 13 trade downs, 15 trade ups and 18 deals involving players and/or future draft considerations.
Many of those deals, at least recently, have involved moving up to target a specific player that might be snapped up before the Patriots' selection, or down for a lower pick, plus an additional pick in the following draft. That included a remarkable seven deals in 2010, with trades that allowed them to draft several key members of the franchise, including defensive back Devin McCourty, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez and linebacker Brandon Spikes.
“It all depends on what you feel makes the most sense at the time,” Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio said when asked about possibly flipping picks into next year’s draft. “We’ve traded back, we’ve traded up. It comes in many shapes and sizes. You try not to look too far into next year because there’s an air of uncertainty. You don’t really know what that quantity of players is going to look like.
“You may have some idea throughout the course of the fall when you’re going through it, but I’d say for the most part you’re focused on that year, you’re focused on those players and you’re just trying to figure out the value of the player, what his role is going to be for your team relative to where you’re picking.”
And considering the Patriots are a little thin when it comes to the tail end of the draft with no fifth-, sixth- or seventh-round picks, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see New England pull the trigger on at least a few trades this week.
“Historically, there’s been a lot of movement as it relates to our picks,” Caserio said. “I would say that those things kind of evolve as the draft sort of moves along. We’ll see how it goes. If we end up acquiring some of those picks back, great. If we don’t, then we’ll be prepared accordingly. I think we just have to let that play itself out and then see how it goes.”
Caserio said there are two things that stand out about this draft: first, there’s a whopping 65 non-seniors. When it comes to evaluation, Caserio said there are different rules when it comes to deciding whether or not younger players are ready for life in the league.
“I think it’s the most [non-seniors] that have declared and made themselves available -- the [non-seniors] are certainly a big part of the draft,” Caserio said. “You need to delve in a little bit further, especially with [non-seniors], because you could have a player who let’s just say has been out of high school for three years, or let’s say he’s a redshirt sophomore, who only played one year of college football at a productive level or started for one year, so you have to make that determination. Next year, do you think that performance would improve or would it decline?”
Second, the “quantity” of front-seven players. It’s a point that Caserio has been consistent on since the start of the offseason, making the same remark in February at the combine as well as earlier this month in the annual pre-draft press conference.
“I’d say like every year, there are different positions, there are certain positions that are deeper than others,” he said. “[But] I think the quantity of front-seven players I’d say is higher than it’s been in the past.”
Trying to guess what the Patriots will do in the draft is one of the most futile exercises in sports, but it’s reasonable to assume -- especially in the wake of their decisions in free agency -- that the Pats will make a sizable investment on the defensive side of the ball. Whether its a defensive back (namely Mark Barron, Harrison Smith, Trumaine Johnson and George Iloka) or one of those front-seven defenders Caserio has alluded to (Chandler Jones, Nick Perry, Shea McClellin, Whitney Mercilus, Vinny Curry and Bruce Irvin), New England likely will be thinking defense while on the clock.
And while the Patriots seemingly have never utilized the same blueprint from one year to the next, Caserio said the overall philosophy of the annual three-day team-building process remains the same.
“In the end, you’re looking for good players to improve your team regardless of where they come from,” Caserio said. “I think that mindset will always stay the same.”
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