A series WEEI.com has been running all year long comes to a conclusion this week, as we enlist the services of a pair of scouts -- one from the AFC and another from the NFC -- to help break down the matchups in Super Bowl XLVI. In the second of a two-part series, (we had our look at how to beat the Giants yesterday), we examine some of the points of emphasis for New York heading into the game if they want to beat the Patriots.
“Given two weeks to prepare, it will be an interesting chess match to see how they attack each other,” said one NFC scout who has studied both teams. “Bill Belichick and the Patriots are great devising counter plans to opponents, like running the ball early and often against Baltimore. Tom Coughlin and Giants are great at staying the course and doing what they do. They both coach players well and teach them how to do what they do against what you do as opposed to a lot of changes in mode of attack.”
With that in mind, here are the points of emphasis from both scouts when it comes to the Giants game plan against the Patriots. (As per usual, the scouts’ statements are in italics, with our notes underneath.)
NFC scout: “The Patriots will have issues with Giants front four as they did in the last Super Bowl matchup. The Giants will cause problems because they can drop seven in coverage and disrupt timing of the New England offense and cover up holes in zones.”
The biggest factor in this game will be whether or not the New England offensive line will be able to contain the Giants' pass rush. The Patriots, who have played most of the season with backups at center (Dan Connolly, Ryan Wendell and Nick McDonald) and right tackle (rookie Nate Solder) will face a New York pass rush that is one of the best in the game. If the Giants can get consistent pressure with their front four and drop seven into coverage, it will cause problems for the New England pass game. However, in stark contrast to the three consecutive postseason losses heading into the divisional playoff game against Denver (a three-game stretch where Brady was hit 19 times), the Patriots have been able to neutralize a pair of better-than-average pass rushing teams over their first two playoff games: Against the Broncos, Brady wasn’t sacked, and hit twice, and against the Ravens, he was hit three times and sacked once. (Brady was hit three times in a November loss to the Giants.)
AFC scout: “The key will be if the Giant secondary can play disciplined for four quarters if it is a close game. The Patriots offense will test the discipline of the New York secondary.”
New York wants to provide as much support as possible for an occasionally suspect secondary, and can cover over some of those deficiencies with a steady pass rush. If the New York front four can rush Brady into some bad throws, the chances for bad passes – and interceptions – increase. Given the overall strength of the Giants’ pass rush, they also think they can be one of a few teams that can get pressure with four and drop seven into coverage, which should also help limit some of New England’s opportunities in the passing game. (Two counterpoints to remember, both of which we mentioned here: the Patriots running game is more consistent than it was in either Super Bowl XLII or when the two teams met in November, and that few teams have been able to slow down the New England passing game.)
AFC scout: “The Giants have an improved running attack that creates balance for an offense, but what’s emerged even more is their three-man passing game in Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham, and their ability to win in the middle of the field with those wide receivers as much as they can on the perimeter and down the field. They have developed good balance in their passing attack short to mid and deep, and will present some real challenges to the New England pass defense.”
In many ways, this is not the same passing game that New England faced in November, because when the Patriots met the Giants in that game, Nicks was on the shelf with a hamstring injury. In Nicks and Cruz, New York has a pair of 1,000-yard receivers that will test the Patriots secondary, and force the Patriots to make some hard choices when it comes to coverage schemes. (It’s likely that New England will allow some of the underneath and shorter routes, with an emphasis on not getting beat deep by Nicks and Cruz, who have a combined 35 catches for 579 yards in the playoffs, an average of 16.5 yards per catch.) In addition, New York is capable of putting together some extended drives by using their short and intermediate passing game in the same way that some teams utilize their running game. (The Giants held at least a nine-minute edge in time of possession in two of their three playoff games this year.)
NFC scout: “What the Patriots do on offense greatly benefits their defense. If you can slow down their offense, you can put their defense in bad situations.”
The Patriots are at their best when they play complementary football, particularly when it comes to making sure the offense does not put the defense in bad spots. That means not turning the ball over in their own end and getting positive results on special teams from kick and punt coverage units. New England was able to dodge a bullet against the Ravens when Danny Woodhead fumbled away a second-half kickoff deep in Patriots’ territory, but New England was able to hold Baltimore to three points. If the Giants are able to force turnovers in the Patriots' end, they must be able to cash in with touchdowns instead of field goals.
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