For the second time in five seasons, the Patriots and Giants will meet in the Super Bowl, and instead of just getting one scout to weigh in on the matchup, we enlisted two -- one from the AFC and another from the NFC -- to help break things down for us.
In the first part of a two-part series, we’ll examine some of the points of emphasis for the Patriots heading into the game if they want to beat the Giants. (Tomorrow, we’ll flip it and take a look at what the Giants need to do to beat the Patriots.)
When you are talking about these two teams, it’s important to remember that the coaches have distinct team-building styles, but both still hold fast to some of the elements of the style they learned while working as assistants for Bill Parcells.
“Both teams are scheme-oriented, but with a different approach,” said an NFC scout who has examined both New England and New York. “The Giants find players that fit into their offensive and defensive schemes. They are almost prototype-driven, meaning finding players like players they have had before, with the same measurables and temperament for the position, and keep the scheme similar -- players like Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Steve Smith and Victor Cruz. Meanwhile, the Patriots have evolved into a team that devises a scheme around the players that they have on the team.
“The interesting thing is that both coaches have Bill Parcells influences, and Parcells was a prototype player-for-position guy. Both Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick have perfected that aspect in their own unique way.”
With that in mind, here are the points of emphasis from both scouts when it comes to New England’s game plan against New York. (As per usual, the scouts' statements are in italics, with our notes underneath.)
NFC scout: “The Patriots will have to be disciplined in the pass rush, not because Eli Manning is a scrambler, but because he’s very good at sliding to buy time and giving wide receivers time to create and escape coverage for big plays. The Patriots' inside rushers can push the pocket, while the ends have to be disciplined to not give Eli space.”
AFC scout: “What stands out to me about the Patriots off last week’s game against Baltimore was their ability to get around and harass the quarterback with just their front lineman, they got push in the middle of the pocket and were able to condense to get middle pressure. That is key vs. Eli Manning.”
The interior is a winnable matchup for New England, as the Patriots’ defensive linemen have been able to get good pressure on quarterbacks over the course of the season through gap discipline and by maintaining their rushing lanes. While they haven’t always been able to bring down the quarterback, Vince Wilfork (who routinely occupied two and three blockers in the AFC championship game) and others have frequently collapsed the pocket and created opportunities for edge rushers like Mark Anderson and Rob Ninkovich. Manning’s ability to keep plays alive is an underrated aspect of his game, though perhaps not in New England. After all, that skill played a huge part in the outcome of Super Bowl XLII, when Manning escaped a number of Patriots pass rushers to connect with David Tyree for a stunning completion.
NFC scout: “Look for the Patriots to apply some of the principles used by the 49ers to slow down Giant attack. I would look for Patriot pressure players (rushers) to move around to create the right mismatch and to hide coverage weaknesses. Patriots defensive backs and linebackers will have to take advantage of Eli’s mistakes. The 49ers didn’t capitalize when they had a chance on two or three picks.”
One player who has been invaluable over the second half of the regular season and into the postseason has been Ninkovich, as he has moved from the left side to the right side and has worked as both a defensive end and outside linebacker depending on the matchup. He will almost certainly be shuffled around in the Super Bowl as New England looks for favorable matchups. The Patriots were good at forcing turnovers over the course of the regular season (best in the AFC at +17), but can’t miss out on the sort of turnover opportunities that the Niners failed to convert in the NFC championship game.
NFC scout: “I expect the Patriots to take advantage of the Giants' strength by using the running game when they get in personnel groupings that makes the Giants use their four defensive end package and make the pass rushers play the run.”
As we mentioned in this past week’s edition of “Ten Things,” the Patriots offense forced the Ravens hand by using the spread. Baltimore responded with nickel and dime packages in hopes of slowing down the pass, and New England was able to take advantage of those situations with a consistent running attack. BenJarvus Green-Ellis had his best game in two months, rushing 15 times for 68 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots would love to have a variation on that same theme in Indy: When the Giants utilize a defensive front that features their four pass-rushing defensive ends, force New York to try and defend the run with a healthy dose of Green-Ellis, rookie Stevan Ridley or third-down backs Danny Woodhead or Kevin Faulk.
AFC scout: “The tight ends should pose a matchup problem for the Giants’ slot corners, safeties and linebackers, but they do every week. Who New York decides to match up on those guys will be critical. It could be safety Antrel Rolle, linebacker Jacquian Williams, linebacker Michael Boley or safety Deon Grant. Whoever New York chooses to focus on, it will leave options for the other.”
As has been the case all season long, New England has a winnable matchup when it comes to its tight end combination of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Teams have tried getting physical with man coverage, some have tried zone, but no one has been able to consistently shut down both tight ends over the course of a full game. (This story from Football Outsiders suggests that Dallas had the right idea for the best way to slow down the duo: zone coverages, allow the stuff underneath at the expense of getting beat deep or down the seam, be careful to avoid mismatches and rely on the pass rush to force Brady into some errant throws.)
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