FOXBORO -- While many have already reduced this week’s AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Ravens to a rematch of their 2009 playoff showdown, the truth is that these two teams are far different than the ones that met that afternoon three years ago at Gillette Stadium.
Only 19 players of the 53-man roster on both sides are still around. When it comes to the Patriots’ starters, things couldn’t be more different: only three of the players who started on offense for New England in that 2009 playoff game will likely get the call to start Sunday (Tom Brady, Matt Light and Logan Mankins). The same is true on defense, as just two starters from that game (Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo) will likely start Sunday against the Ravens.
With that in mind, we head into this week’s edition of “Scout’s Take,” where one NFC scout who has broken down film on both the Patriots and the Ravens takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for both teams heading into this weekend’s AFC Championship. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)
The Ravens really don’t have an effective counterpoint to New England’s tight ends. How the Patriots decide to use them will ultimately be the key for the New England offense.
The Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combo has been a matchup nightmare all season long for opponents, who have frequently decided to choose between one or the other when it came to slowing down the New England passing game. Gronkowski is the bigger and more physical presence, too fast to be contained by a linebacker and too big to be covered by a defensive back, while Hernandez is the multidimensional chess piece that can play any one of the wide receiver spots in addition to working as a traditional tight end. Hernandez showed up at the running back spot for several snaps on Saturday, which adds another wrinkle when it comes to game-planning to try and stop the duo. It’s debatable as to how the Ravens will go about trying to slow them down (zone has worked against the duo on occasion this year), but if Baltimore is in man coverage, linebacker Ray Lewis will likely be involved in some capacity, as well as safety Bernard Pollard.
When Baltimore is on offense, their wide receivers will present a challenge for the New England secondary if Baltimore is able to run the ball on them consistently with Ray Rice.
In much the same way that the Gronkowski/Hernandez/Wes Welker trio makes the New England offense go, for the Ravens’ offense, Rice is really the x-factor. If he is able to get started early, the Baltimore offense will be able to stay on the field consistently, control the clock and play keep away from Brady and the Patriots -- something the Broncos were not able to do. A revved-up Rice would also start to loosen things up for Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco in the passing game, allowing receivers access in single coverage, something that would give them an advantage in the passing game. Rice is also the key in the passing game, as he leads the team with 76 catches and is third in total receiving yards with 704.
These are two well-coached teams that are more technical than scheme. In the end, this is a game that will come down to turnovers.
The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to takeaways, having led the AFC over the course of the regular season with a +17. Baltimore does almost as well as New England when it comes to forcing turnovers -- the Ravens just turn the ball over more often. (The Patriots have 34 takeaways -- 23 interceptions, 11 fumbles -- but only 17 giveaways, while the Ravens are at +2 with 26 takeaways and 24 giveaways.) Both sides continue to preach ball security, but one stat really stands out: The Patriots have lost just five fumbles this season (tied with several teams for the best total in the league), while the Ravens coughed it up 12 times (Ray Rice, Ricky Williams and Joe Flacco have each fumbled twice.)
The quarterback position is the one position of vast difference between the two teams: Tom Brady over Joe Flacco is no contest.
Brady was flat-out surgical in the divisional playoff round, carving up the Broncos by going 26-for-34 for 363 yards with six touchdowns and one pick. Against Houston, Flacco was far more pedestrian, finishing 14-for-27 for 176 yards and two touchdowns. The book on the two quarterbacks is well-established at this point in their respective careers: Brady is the sort of guy who can lift an entire team on his shoulders, while Flacco is more of the type of quarterback who needs support from his skill position players (namely, Rice) if the Ravens are going to succeed offensively.
Ed Reed vs. Brady in the deep passing game is a great matchup. However, it may not be as big of a factor this time around because of the more horizontal than vertical passing game of New England.
The New England offense has evolved greatly over the last few seasons, but nowhere has that been more true than in the passing game, where the Patriots have gone from a team that is more dependent on their receivers to a tight end-heavy set that’s reliant on Gronkowski and Hernandez. New England’s reverence for Reed is well-known, and the Patriots have always gone out their way to avoid the perennial All-Pro safety. (In four career games against New England -- three in the regular season and one in the playoffs -- he has three picks and four passes defensed.) Look for more of that this week, as New England’s passing game is more horizontal than vertical. It depends on where Reed is focused, but whichever of New England’s three primary options in the passing game isn’t in his general vicinity will likely be targeted frequently by Brady.
If the Patriots do decide to take shots in the passing game to one of their receivers, one guy to look out for is cornerback Ladarius Webb. In his first full year as a starter for the Ravens, leads the team in interceptions with five, and came away with two in the divisional playoff win over the Texans. A 5-foot-10, 182-pounder out of Nicholls State, the 26-year-old Webb grades out as Baltimore’s best defender in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus. He is one of two starting cornerbacks in the league not to have allowed a touchdown reception this season.
Special teams play will be a big key in this one. Neither one of them are great, but both sides have enough talent to make a difference, particularly New England’s punter, who has really helped the Patriots with their slow starts.
The Patriots’ offense had some slow starts over the second half of the season, but New England still managed to avoid bad situations for the defense because of some of the work of punter Zoltan Mesko. Mesko was able to keep the field tilted in favor of the Patriots with some great work until the offense got unstuck. As alert Tweeter @CStrable reminded us, Mesko’s work in overtime of the 2010 game between the Patriots and Ravens played a big part in New England’s dramatic victory, as he delivered a 40-yarder and a 65-yarder in overtime that won the battle of field position against Baltimore and helped set the stage for kicker Stephen Gostkowski to deliver a 35-yard game winner for the Patriots.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Joe Castiglione and Dave O'Brien talked to David Ortiz after the Red Sox beat the Twins 12-5. Big Papi said that team chemistry is great, that the new guys see the Sox way of doing things.
Joe Castiglione talked to John Farrell before the second game against the Twins. The manager said that the Sox can win with small-ball or with big-ball.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
Pierre McGuire joins Tom Caron and Mut to discuss the Bruins young defensemen, the intensity and energy level in the game, and the Rangers offense.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
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More from this showIn the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
More from this showBoomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
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