FOXBORO -- While many have already reduced this week’s AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Ravens to a rematch of their 2009 playoff showdown, the truth is that these two teams are far different than the ones that met that afternoon three years ago at Gillette Stadium.
Only 19 players of the 53-man roster on both sides are still around. When it comes to the Patriots’ starters, things couldn’t be more different: only three of the players who started on offense for New England in that 2009 playoff game will likely get the call to start Sunday (Tom Brady, Matt Light and Logan Mankins). The same is true on defense, as just two starters from that game (Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo) will likely start Sunday against the Ravens.
With that in mind, we head into this week’s edition of “Scout’s Take,” where one NFC scout who has broken down film on both the Patriots and the Ravens takes a look at some of the points of emphasis for both teams heading into this weekend’s AFC Championship. (Per usual, we have the scout’s statements in italics, with our notes underneath.)
The Ravens really don’t have an effective counterpoint to New England’s tight ends. How the Patriots decide to use them will ultimately be the key for the New England offense.
The Rob Gronkowski/Aaron Hernandez combo has been a matchup nightmare all season long for opponents, who have frequently decided to choose between one or the other when it came to slowing down the New England passing game. Gronkowski is the bigger and more physical presence, too fast to be contained by a linebacker and too big to be covered by a defensive back, while Hernandez is the multidimensional chess piece that can play any one of the wide receiver spots in addition to working as a traditional tight end. Hernandez showed up at the running back spot for several snaps on Saturday, which adds another wrinkle when it comes to game-planning to try and stop the duo. It’s debatable as to how the Ravens will go about trying to slow them down (zone has worked against the duo on occasion this year), but if Baltimore is in man coverage, linebacker Ray Lewis will likely be involved in some capacity, as well as safety Bernard Pollard.
When Baltimore is on offense, their wide receivers will present a challenge for the New England secondary if Baltimore is able to run the ball on them consistently with Ray Rice.
In much the same way that the Gronkowski/Hernandez/Wes Welker trio makes the New England offense go, for the Ravens’ offense, Rice is really the x-factor. If he is able to get started early, the Baltimore offense will be able to stay on the field consistently, control the clock and play keep away from Brady and the Patriots -- something the Broncos were not able to do. A revved-up Rice would also start to loosen things up for Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco in the passing game, allowing receivers access in single coverage, something that would give them an advantage in the passing game. Rice is also the key in the passing game, as he leads the team with 76 catches and is third in total receiving yards with 704.
These are two well-coached teams that are more technical than scheme. In the end, this is a game that will come down to turnovers.
The Patriots are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to takeaways, having led the AFC over the course of the regular season with a +17. Baltimore does almost as well as New England when it comes to forcing turnovers -- the Ravens just turn the ball over more often. (The Patriots have 34 takeaways -- 23 interceptions, 11 fumbles -- but only 17 giveaways, while the Ravens are at +2 with 26 takeaways and 24 giveaways.) Both sides continue to preach ball security, but one stat really stands out: The Patriots have lost just five fumbles this season (tied with several teams for the best total in the league), while the Ravens coughed it up 12 times (Ray Rice, Ricky Williams and Joe Flacco have each fumbled twice.)
The quarterback position is the one position of vast difference between the two teams: Tom Brady over Joe Flacco is no contest.
Brady was flat-out surgical in the divisional playoff round, carving up the Broncos by going 26-for-34 for 363 yards with six touchdowns and one pick. Against Houston, Flacco was far more pedestrian, finishing 14-for-27 for 176 yards and two touchdowns. The book on the two quarterbacks is well-established at this point in their respective careers: Brady is the sort of guy who can lift an entire team on his shoulders, while Flacco is more of the type of quarterback who needs support from his skill position players (namely, Rice) if the Ravens are going to succeed offensively.
Ed Reed vs. Brady in the deep passing game is a great matchup. However, it may not be as big of a factor this time around because of the more horizontal than vertical passing game of New England.
The New England offense has evolved greatly over the last few seasons, but nowhere has that been more true than in the passing game, where the Patriots have gone from a team that is more dependent on their receivers to a tight end-heavy set that’s reliant on Gronkowski and Hernandez. New England’s reverence for Reed is well-known, and the Patriots have always gone out their way to avoid the perennial All-Pro safety. (In four career games against New England -- three in the regular season and one in the playoffs -- he has three picks and four passes defensed.) Look for more of that this week, as New England’s passing game is more horizontal than vertical. It depends on where Reed is focused, but whichever of New England’s three primary options in the passing game isn’t in his general vicinity will likely be targeted frequently by Brady.
If the Patriots do decide to take shots in the passing game to one of their receivers, one guy to look out for is cornerback Ladarius Webb. In his first full year as a starter for the Ravens, leads the team in interceptions with five, and came away with two in the divisional playoff win over the Texans. A 5-foot-10, 182-pounder out of Nicholls State, the 26-year-old Webb grades out as Baltimore’s best defender in pass coverage according to Pro Football Focus. He is one of two starting cornerbacks in the league not to have allowed a touchdown reception this season.
Special teams play will be a big key in this one. Neither one of them are great, but both sides have enough talent to make a difference, particularly New England’s punter, who has really helped the Patriots with their slow starts.
The Patriots’ offense had some slow starts over the second half of the season, but New England still managed to avoid bad situations for the defense because of some of the work of punter Zoltan Mesko. Mesko was able to keep the field tilted in favor of the Patriots with some great work until the offense got unstuck. As alert Tweeter @CStrable reminded us, Mesko’s work in overtime of the 2010 game between the Patriots and Ravens played a big part in New England’s dramatic victory, as he delivered a 40-yarder and a 65-yarder in overtime that won the battle of field position against Baltimore and helped set the stage for kicker Stephen Gostkowski to deliver a 35-yard game winner for the Patriots.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
Pete joined the show to discuss Tebow's signing with the Patriots. He said that Tim Tebow cant play and that he has trouble learning NFL playbooks.
On this episode of the It Is What It Is Cast, Chris Price talks with the Boston Herald's Jeff P Howe about the Patriots offseason, Rob Gronkowski's back surgery, Danny Amendola replacing Wes Welker, and how this seasons team will stack up against last seasons.
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Grande and Max take more calls on the Celtics and discuss what lies ahead for Doc Rivers with Steve Bulpett.
John Farrell postgame press conference
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Jeff joined the show to discuss the rumors of Doc heading to the Clippers. Jeff said that he will not discuss his future but that his brother would be a great candidate anywhere.
The guys opened the show discussing the Bruins' dominating Game 3 win over the Blackhawks. Gerry thinks the series is over.
Pierre McGuire joins Mut and Merloni after a Bruins win and discusses the play of Rask and the defense, the Hossa injury, and Jagr.
Tony Amonte calls out Marian Hossa for missing Game 3 and recaps the Bruins win.
Andy Brickley joins Mut and Merloni in studio to take phone calls from the listeners and to preview Game 3 of the Stanley Cup.
We talk all Bruins, all the time with the man himself, Jack Edwards from NESN gets us ready for game three and beyond.
Four guys, four topics we haven't yet touched upon today. TO visits Ocho, Bob Costas has enough smarm for us all, stupid beauty pageant contestants and more.
We talk about the Bruins big showdown with the Blackhawks tonight at the Garden with the lovely and knowledgeable Kathryn Tappen of the NHL Network.
Mikey gets a surprise call from Bernie Carbo, they talk about old time baseball and Bernie's new book.
Mikey talks with Tom and Luke about their new movie, Plimpton! and finds out what it was like to try to encapsulate everything Plimpton accomplished during his life.
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