For the Patriots, it’ll be all about taking advantage of positive man-to-man matchups, while the Broncos must focus on playing good complementary football and staying as physical as possible on defense.
That’s the feeling of one scout who has broken down film on both the Patriots and the Broncos, who will meet Saturday in the AFC divisional playoffs at Gillette Stadium. He was kind enough to open up his notebook and give us some points of emphasis for both sides this weekend. And while he acknowledged many aspects of the game plan for both teams would be similar to when they met in the regular season back on Dec. 18, there are a few new wrinkles to look for. (As per usual, we’ve listed the scout’s notes in italics, with our take underneath.)
The Denver defense needs to win on third down. This will go part and parcel with their offense trying to win time of possession, the complementary element of keeping Tom Brady off the field. The Broncos will need to run the football to a degree that they need to take control of the time of possession, which will play some “keep away” from the Patriots defense.
Do you remember how New England used to try and beat the Colts by keeping Peyton Manning off the field, running the ball and controlling the time of possession? The Broncos are going to try and take a page out of the Patriots’ old game plans and play keep away from Brady by trying to control the pace and the tempo of the game by running the ball with the league’s best running attack, featuring Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee. However, that will only work if Denver plays good complimentary football -- that is, if the Broncos’ defense can limit the New England offense early, force some well-timed three-and-outs and gain an early edge. With the Patriots’ recent run of slow starts, New England could be vulnerable if Denver can control the game early.
The Broncos have to slow down the middle of the field passing game: namely the tight ends and Wes Welker. If Pats are going to beat you, force them to outside the numbers with their perimeter wide receiver group. Look for Denver to try and get their hands on the tight ends and Welker -- free access will only accentuate their ability. To slow them down, they need to reroute and win versus these guys at the line of scrimmage. And you must pressure on the passer. Give Tom Brady time, he’ll find the open wide receiver.
Look for Denver to try and get as physical as possible all over the field. First, when teams have been able to try and get their hands on Welker, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez off the line and try and re-route them, they’ve had some success. (As our scout suggests, if Denver allows free access down the field for Welker and the two tight ends, it will flat-out kill the Broncos.) Look for the Patriots to try and get Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez in situations where it’ll be tough to jam them off the line -- have them in motion, or lined up in the backfield (particularly in the case of the two tight ends). Second, one of the biggest reasons behind New England’s last three playoff losses has been because teams have been successful in getting consistent pressure on Brady with a minimum of rushers. Those teams (New York Giants, Baltimore and the New York Jets) have all gotten very physical with Brady, and hit him steadily. (The Patriots have allowed a total of 19 quarterback hits in those games -- seven against the Jets, three against the Ravens and nine against the Giants.) As we saw in the first game between the Patriots and Broncos on Dec. 18, look for New England to try and counteract some of that pressure by utilizing Gronkowski more as a blocker to try and give some support. If Brady can stay clean and upright on Saturday, it’ll go a long way toward a New England win.
Matchup football is going to be big. The Patriots understand this element as well as anyone in the NFL. Exploit those matchups.
Offensively, New England will look to exploit mismatches, particularly in the passing game, where targets like Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez have been matchup nightmares for opposing defenses all season long. While the Broncos were able to contain Welker in the first matchup and Gronkowski was used more as a blocker, Brady (who went 23-for-34 for 320 yards and two touchdowns) was able to exploit a mismatch on Hernandez to the tune of nine catches for 129 yards and a touchdown. New England was also able to find some positive matchups in the running game, particularly involving rookie Stevan Ridley, who had 11 carries for 65 yards the first time these two teams met during the regular season.
If you’re Denver, you want to force field goals over touchdowns. New England is going to get their yards, but the ability to win in the red zone will be key to keeping it tight. Denver has to eliminate the turnovers: that really tilted the game the last time these two teams played. You can’t do that and expect to beat Tom Brady.
The first time these two teams met back in December, the Patriots won two key battles: they were 4-for-6 in the red zone (three runs and one pass got them four touchdowns), and they won the turnover battle, finishing +3 in the takeaway department. Not all turnovers are created equal, and New England has done a very good job as of late when it comes to forcing well-timed turnovers. On Dec. 18, those three takeaways in the second quarter quickly changed momentum in New England’s favor. The Patriots were +17 over the course of the regular season in takeaways, the best total in the AFC. The Broncos were -12. Something to look for on Saturday night.
The Patriots will aim to score like gangbusters so that the Denver offense will become a one-dimensional pass effort. That’s not what the Broncos want.
In their first meeting this season, New England struggled early against the Broncos, falling behind 16-7. The Patriots quickly mounted a comeback and dominated down the stretch, but slow starts have remained a problem for New England over the second half of the season. The Patriots have shown themselves to be a mentally tough team this season -- they’ve come from behind in nine of their 13 wins during the regular season, overcoming an average deficit of 8.4 points in those victories. But with the narrow margin for error in the postseason, they can’t afford to put themselves in a similar hole this time around. For the Patriots, the ideal scenario would be to get to control the tempo early, gain a double-digit lead and force the Broncos to become a one-dimensional team, not unlike what they were able to do in their first meeting.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Will Middlebrooks hit a 3-run double in the top of the 9th inning to power the Red Sox to a 4-3 victory over the Rays tonight. He joined Joe & Dave after the final call live from the dugout.
Larry joined the program to discuss the teams recent struggles and informed the guys that it is still early in the season. Larry also said that he still has faith that Daniel bard can turn things around.
Stephen Drew helped the Red Sox to a 9-2 victory over the Rays tonight with a grand slam in the 3rd inning. He spoke with Joe Castiglione & Dave O'Brien after the game.
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Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
Pierre McGuire joins Tom Caron and Mut to discuss the Bruins young defensemen, the intensity and energy level in the game, and the Rangers offense.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
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