While the AFC East is no longer in doubt, the Patriots will look to solidify their playoff position this weekend when they meet Miami at Gillette Stadium.
The Dolphins their first seven games but they have come on strong down the stretch, winning five of the next seven. In this week’s edition of "Scout’s Take," one NFC scout who has studied both the Patriots and the Dolphins says that while there’s a lot to like about New England, this isn’t likely to be the typical late-season walkover you see when a team headed for the postseason meets a team playing out the string. Here are his five keys to the game (in italics), complete with our notes below.
•It’s a tough matchup for New England this week. The Miami defense will present problems. Defensive coordinator Mike Nolan does a good job using personnel and devising schemes to stop what you do best. The Dolphins have a solid front seven, but they’re inconsistent in the back end. New England can take advantage of Miami’s cornerbacks with route combinations, but outside players aren’t the Patriots’ strongest group.
The Patriots will face a Miami defense that below average in terms of stopping the pass (3,466 yards allowed and 248 yards per game, both 25th in the league), but is one of the best in the league when it comes to stopping the run (fourth in the league with 1,282 yards; third in the league in both yards per game with an average of 91.6 and yards per carry at 3.6). With that understanding -- and the fact that the Miami secondary is suspect at best -- expect the Patriots to try and air things out on Sunday against the Dolphins.
•Kevin Burnett and Karlos Dansby are a pair of linebackers who can physically contend with New England’s tight ends in coverage. Defensive end Jared Odrick makes Miami’s defense better in passing situations because he can overpower tackles and an athletic mismatch inside. He’ll be matched against Matt Light and Logan Mankins and has the skill to cause both of them some problems one-on-one. The Patriots have to present some form of running attack, or Brady will get hit a lot in this game.
At first glance, there are some winnable battles for the Dolphins’ pass defense, as Burnett and Dansby appear to be positive matchups against Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. (Dansby is rated by Pro Football Focus as one of the best linebackers in the league when it comes to pass coverage, and would appear to have a good combination of size -- he’s 6-foot-4 and 250 pounds -- to match up with Gronkowski.) However, from a matchup perspective, this could be a big week for New England’s receivers like Wes Welker and Deion Branch, both of whom came up huge in the first meeting between the two teams (they combined for 15 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns in the season opener.) Light will face another stern test this week with Odrick, his fifth straight game against a premier pass rusher, not to mention whoever will face Cameron Wake on the other side. The New England offense would get a sizable boost from its running game, but between the recent performance of BenJarvus Green-Ellis (32 yards per game in his last seven games) and what happened in the opener (Danny Woodhead ran for a game-high 69 yards), it could be a bigger week for Woodhead than Green-Ellis.
•Miami quarterback Matt Moore is good enough to match up with the New England secondary with the weapons the Dolphins have. Moore does have enough ability to change them out of plays at the line of scrimmage if he sees a favorable matchup in zone, and he does a good job of throwing the deep ball. Moore can move around in the pocket to buy time and put stress on the New England secondary after initial play breaks down, and they have to stay on their man assignments.
The problems of the Patriots pass-defense are well documented, and if Moore does indeed have the ability to throw the ball deep, he’ll do so against a pass defense that has allowed an astounding 72 pass plays of at least 20 yards or more, the worst figure in the league. Moore is certainly not a spectacular quarterback, but he is consistent, and does not make many mistakes -- he has only six interceptions in 283 pass attempts this season, a ratio of one every 47 pass attempts. (By way of comparison, Brady is averaging one in every 48 pass attempts.)
•Brandon Marshall is a tough matchup for New England secondary and Anthony Fasano and Charles Clay have been options used to threaten the seam. Reggie Bush has developed some consistency as a full-time runner, and the threat of him as a running back will make New England have to pick its poison in normal situations. Davone Bess will be key in the slot on third downs for the New England defense as well as matchups on Bush as a wide receiver.
Marshall has always been a beast against the Patriots -- he had seven catches for 139 yards in the season opener against New England. Fasano and Clay will be interesting matchups. Meanwhile, Bess was the focus of the New England pass defense in the opener -- he had five catches for 92 yards in the game, but he was held to two catches for 37 yards through three quarters. Holding him in check in the slot was Leigh Bodden, but with no more Bodden, it’ll be interesting to see how the Patriots handle Bess this time around. As for Bush, the Patriots have struggled with multidimensional backs this season (Roy Helu, Fred Jackson), and while has really emerged as a solid ground presence (100 yards or more in his last three games, including 203 last Sunday against Buffalo), he can still beat you in the passing game (41 catches this season).
•New England has to be alert for trick/gimmick plays from Miami offense.
There have been a few gimmick plays that have been run against the Patriots’ defense the last few weeks. On Sunday against the Broncos, Denver wide receiver Demaryius Thomas tried a pass play for running back Lance Ball that would have been completed if it were thrown better. Last week against the Redskins, Washington was able to connect on a 49-yard pass play from wide receiver Brandon Banks to Santana Moss on an end-around that ended up going for a touchdown. Look for the Dolphins and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (a former Patriots’ assistant) to try and take their shot with something out of the ordinary at least once on Sunday.
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