FOXBORO -- The Patriots' regular-season journey through the NFC East comes to an end this Sunday when they travel to face the Redskins.
Thanks in large part to a struggling offense, Washington is simply crossing the days off the calendar between now and the end of the regular season. The Redskins are 4-8, and have lost seven of their last eight games. Adding to their troubles is the news that two offensive starters -- tight end Fred Davis and left tackle Trent Williams -- will likely be suspended for the rest of the season for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.
While New England hasn’t faced Washington since 2007 (the 52-7 curb-stomping was the unquestioned high point of the regular-season for that Patriots’ team), the two coaches have a long history. Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan have faced each other eight times from when Shanahan was head coach of the Broncos, and Shanahan holds a 5-3 edge, including wins in three of the last four games.
But with Shanahan now in charge of the Redskins, this head-to-head matchup has a different feel. To get a sense of how this game might shake out, we talked to a scout who has broken down film on both the Patriots and Redskins for four things that stand out for them about this week’s matchup. Here’s what he gave us (his statements are in italics, and we've added our notes below those):
•What the Redskins do well right now is they play good defense, I’ve been impressed with what defensive coordinator Jim Haslett has done. And that allows them a chance to stay in the game against New England.
Washington is in the top half of the league in most major defensive categories, including points per game (21.3 points per game, 15th in the league), passing yards (208.8 yards per game, ninth in the league) and total yards allowed (3,903, 10th in the league and second-best in the NFC). While they have undergone some growing pains this season -- including last week’s implosion against the Jets -- the Redskins’ defense has had plenty of positive moments this season, and figure to get better if the franchise can somehow keep them together. Of their front seven, only one current starter is older than 27 years old (linebacker London Fletcher).
•They have two good young, developing pressure players in their 3-4 front in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, and two active inside linebackers. Adding Barry Cofield helped to solidify their front. They can get pressure to the quarterback.
The strength of the Washington defense is its ability to generate consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Redskins are tied for first in the NFC and third in the NFL with 33 sacks. Kerrigan has 6 1/2 sacks, while Orakpo has 6 sacks. Washington is only one of three teams that have two linebackers in the Top 25 in sacks. Like the combination of Cole and Babin in Philadelphia and Freeney and Mathis with Indianapolis, it will be another challenging week for the New England tackles.
•An average offense, but they have that zone blocking scheme up front in the run game, but it hasn’t been real good season for them on the ground. And Rex Grossman doesn’t strike fear to a defense.
With the exception of a few standout skill position players like running back Roy Helu (97 carries, 456 yards, 4.7 yards per carry), tight end Fred Davis (59 catches for 796 yards this season, but more on him shortly) and Jabar Gaffney (46 catches, 665 yards, three touchdowns), the Washington offense has been subpar this season. Since their 3-1 start, the Redskins have gotten consistently poor play at the quarterback spot. Last week against the Jets, Rex Grossman finished 19-for-46 for 221 yards, an interception, was sacked twice and lost a fumble. It added up to an abysmal 47.5 passer rating.
•I think they’ll miss Fred Davis, the tight end, who was coming into his own as a pass catching threat. I think left tackle Trent Williams will be missed just as much. Those are big blows to an already average offensive outfit.
As of Monday night, there were no new updates about the status of Davis and Williams, who both have reportedly violated the league’s substance policy. If the two are found guilty, they will likely be suspended four games (the rest of the regular season), which would leave Washington without a pair of offensive starters. Davis is the teams’ best receiver. In addition, he’s third among NFL tight ends with 296 yards after the catch, which leads Redskins receivers and tight ends by a sizable margin (Helu has 315). Meanwhile, Williams, who was taken fourth overall in the 2010 draft, was Shanahan’s first pick when he took over as coach of the Redskins, but he has yet to reach the heights expected for such a lofty pick.
If Davis and Williams are indeed suspended, look for the Redskins to turn to Logan Paulsen (seven catches for 95 yards) at tight end and Sean Locklear, who has spent a lot of time at both tackle spots this season for Washington.
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