FOXBORO -- There are two ways you can look at the improved statistics for the Patriots’ defense.
One, since the ugly loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Oct. 30, the group has started to come together as a collective unit. Since that defeat, the numbers have improved in several defensive areas, and continue to trend in a positive direction.
Or two, their success is simply the byproduct of a favorable schedule, and are facing a run of quarterbacks as bad as any NFL defense has faced this season.
Let’s start with No. 1. To their credit, many of New England’s high-value defensive numbers have improved since the end of October. Dating back four games -- contests against the Giants, Jets, Chiefs and Eagles -- the Patriots have seen a slight uptick across the board in most major defensive categories:
• After the loss to the Steelers, New England was allowing an average of 424.1 total yards per game. Now, the Patriots are allowing 409.8 yards per game. The same is true for average passing yards, which are down 323 to 308 per game, as well as defensive scoring average, which has dropped from 22.9 points per game to 20.3 points per game. (New England has allowed 16 points a game in its last four games.)
• At the end of October, New England was tied for 16th in the league in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns at a rate of 51.7 percent. Now, the Patriots are tied for 13th in the league in red-zone defense with a 50 percent rate.
• At the end of October, New England was +2 in takeaways, tied for 12th in the league. Now, the Patriots are +6 in takeaways, tied for fifth-best in the league.
• At the end of October, the Patriots were allowing third downs to be converted at a rate of 46 percent. Now, the Patriots are 26th in the league when it comes to third-down defense with a rate of 42 percent.
• Through the first seven games, the Patriots had 15 sacks, an average of 2.1 per game. Over the last four games, New England has notched 10 sacks (a rate of 2.5 sacks per game), which has improved its overall sack per game ratio slightly to 2.23 per game.
The numbers certainly won’t make anyone forget the 2000 Ravens or 1985 Bears, but there is some reason for cautious optimism here. Granted, the opponents aren’t the most powerful (of the four teams, only two -- the Giants and Jets -- have a real shot at the postseason), but the numbers are trending in the right direction.
Then, there’s theory No. 2: The Patriots are just fattening up on cupcakes. The New England defense is in the midst of a stretch where it will face three straight non-starter/backup quarterbacks, including Kansas City’s Tyler Palko and Philadelphia’s Vince Young. This week, Indianapolis has decided to go with Dan Orlovsky instead of Curtis Painter, the third quarterback to start a game this season for the Colts.
On Wednesday, Patriots coach Bill Belichick took exception to the idea that an 0-11 Indianapolis team might not serve as a suitable gauge to find out just how well his own team is doing, pointing to the individual talent on the Colts roster as proof.
“You don’t think you can gauge a team based on how a player blocks Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis? Who else would you gauge it against? Are you kidding me?” said a clearly agitated Belichick.
“Covering Reggie Wayne and [Austin] Collie and [Pierre] Garcon -- you don’t think you can gauge your coverage based on those players? I don’t care what their record is. You think there are better receivers around than them? Better pass rushers than Freeney and Mathis?”
Regardless of what sort of test the Colts will pose to the New England defense, beyond this weekend when the Patriots do head into the final month of the regular season, it seems unlikely that we’ll find out if the Patriots have the sort of defense capable of playing deep in January, as they have a remarkably easy schedule the rest of the way. Over the last five games of the regular season, New England’s opponents have a combined record of 18-37, a winning percentage of .327. (Only one team, Denver, has a record better than .500, and they’re 6-5.) That’s the cushiest stretch between now and the end of the season for any AFC playoff contender.
In the end, all the New England defense can do is stay focused on handling its own business.
“Every week is always a progression,” said defensive end Andre Carter, who is tied for second in the AFC with nine sacks. “You take it one day at a time. You’re never content. You’re always trying to say, ‘How can we get better, whether it’s stopping the run or rushing the passer?’ From then on, you say ‘This is the level we need to play on. Let’s get a little bit better.’”
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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