Here are 10 matchups we’ll be looking for in Monday night’s Patriots-Chiefs game at Gillette Stadium:
WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL
Matt Light against Tamba Hali: The premiere matchup of the day, at least up front. As we found out here, Hali is the Chiefs only real threat when it comes to getting after the quarterback -- according to Pro Football Focus, he leads the Chiefs in sacks with six (tied for fourth in the league), quarterback pressures with 17 (ninth in the league) and quarterback hits with seven (fifth in the league). The Chiefs will likely line up him on Brady’s blind side, which means it’ll be Light’s responsibility to hold him in check. Look for Light to get some help in the form of an extra tight end, as well as some assistance from whatever running back is in the game. (Maybe more reps for veteran Kevin Faulk?)
The Patriots’ no-huddle against the Chiefs defense: We wrote about it earlier in the week, but it certainly bears repeating -- this year’s New England offense leans heavily on the no-huddle, utilizing it 22 percent of the time through nine games. Of the other side of the ball, this Kansas City defense has virtually no experience when it comes to defending a no-huddle offense, having seen it on only 11 of the 566 defensive snaps this season. If the opportunity is there for the Patriots on Monday night, look for them to keep their foot on the gas.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis against Derrick Johnson: It remains to be seen how much of the recent drop in New England’s run game is due to scheme and how much is because of the fact that Green-Ellis has had a toe injury over the last couple of weeks. If Green-Ellis is healthy, he’ll likely get his chances against a Kansas City run defense that is statistically one of the worst in the league (134 yards a game, 26th in the league). The primary run defender is Johnson, one of the Chiefs two inside linebackers in their 3-4 scheme. He leads the team with tackles (55 solo), and according to PFF, is their best defender against the run with a grade of +14.5.
Wes Welker/Rob Gronkowski against the Chiefs pass defense: As we wrote last week, it’s hard not to notice that the New England passing game has boiled down to two targets recently. As the great Evan Silva noted, since the Patriots’ Week 7 bye, Tom Brady’s target distribution has been skewed heavily in favor of the Gronkowski/Welker duo: In the last three weeks, Gronkowski has been targeted 35 times and Welker 26. Only one other receiver has been targeted more than 20 times (Branch, 20). Expect defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel and the Chiefs to try and take out Nos. 87 and 83 and hope Brady struggles to locate the rest of his options in the passing game.
WHEN THE CHIEFS HAVE THE BALL
The Patriots’ pass defense against Tyler Palko: Palko is a wild card in more ways than one -- the 28-year-old veteran who had a strong college career at Pitt will be making his first NFL start Monday against the Patriots. There’s no regular season film on him. The last time New England faced a veteran making his first NFL start, Matt Flynn of the Packers went 24-for-37 for 251 yards and three touchdowns against New England last December. (The quality of the skill position players around Flynn was superior to the ones Palko will have at his disposal, but the point remains -- the unknown element is still very much in play when it comes to talking about the Pitt product.) When they’ve faced new quarterbacks in the past, they’ve tried to disguise coverages as much as possible in hopes of creating confusion in the passing game.
The Patriots’ run defense against Jackie Battle: This season, the Chiefs have run the ball better than they have thrown in, and after Jamaal Charles went down with a knee injury, they’ve leaned on Battle. He leads Kansas City with 403 yards on 87 carries this season. Since he became the starter, he’s been a bit of a trick-or-treat runner -- he’s had one 100-plus game (when he reached 119 against Indy), but there have also been weeks where he’s had a problem reaching 40. Last week against the Broncos, he had one 34-yard run, and the rest of his afternoon was spent struggling for eight carries on 27 yards. New England’s run defense has been pretty consistent this season -- the Patriots have been in the Top 10 against the run, and now stand ninth in the league, allowing an average of 103.1 yards per game. A good matchup for New England, especially when you consider the fact that the Chiefs have struggled to throw the ball this season.
The Patriots’ secondary against Dwayne Bowe and Jonathan Baldwin: The Chiefs have their offensive problems, but according to one AFC scout, Kansas City has a pair of good perimeter options in Bowe and Baldwin. Bowe averages 16.2 yards per catch, while Baldwin is at 15.4 yards per catch. New England has been vulnerable to the big play this season: Overall, the Patriots have allowed a league-high 48 pass plays of 20 yards or more and allowed 8.0 yards per pass play, tied for third-lowest in the league. With Cassel sidelined, it remains to be seen if Palko can get them the ball consistently (especially in the wake of a resurgent New England pass rush), but this was a huge point of emphasis for the Patriots’ defense this week.
Andre Carter against Branden Albert: The Patriots were able to get their pass rush jump-started last week against the Jets, as Carter finished with a season-high four sacks in the win over New York. Carter will look to keep that going Monday night against the Chiefs, and will go against left tackle Albert, who has yielded four sacks and nine quarterback pressures (including seven in the last three weeks) over the course of the season. Like Light against Hali, look for Albert to get some help against Carter, with fullback Le’Ron McClain and possibly tight end Leonard Pope getting a hit on Carter before they go into their routes.
The Patriots’ early energy against the Chiefs’ sense of optimism: On Monday night, New England doesn’t want Kansas City to hang around and start to feel good about its chances. The Patriots especially want to make sure that Palko feels uncomfortable early. Two or three three-and-outs for the Chiefs would go a long way toward establishing a sense of dominance and control for New England. Through the first nine games of the season, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 51-27 in the first quarter this season, while the Chiefs have been outscored 49-33 in the same span. If New England knocks Kansas City back with a big first quarter, it will go a long way toward setting the tone for the rest of the game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Patriots’ kick coverage unit against Dexter McCluster: McCluster will be the best return man in the building on Monday night, and while he’s not explosive, he’s a consistent presence for the Chiefs. He averages 23.8 yards per return, 15th in the league. The Patriots did a commendable job of stopping the occasionally dangerous Joe McKnight Sunday against the Jets, and need to keep that momentum going forward when it comes to containing McCluster.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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