FOXBORO -- Forget Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan. The real showdown this weekend is going to be between Wes Welker and Darrelle Revis.
Entering Sunday’s game at Gillette, the Patriots’ receiver and the Jets’ cornerback are at the peak of their powers. Through four games, Welker is on pace to have the finest season for a wide receiver in NFL history. He leads the league with 40 receptions for 616 yards, a pace that would allow him to shatter both single-season records, and the best start (yardage-wise) for any receiver in the history of the game.
Meanwhile, Revis is having his usual stellar start -- according to Pro Football Focus, he has allowed just three receptions on 11 targets, while quarterbacks have a microscopic 3.6 passer rating when throwing in his direction. PFF also adds that no pass in Revis’ direction has been completed over the past three weeks.
It certainly appears now that Ryan is going to give the people what they want -- he said Thursday that he’s “sure” Revis would get the opportunity to face Welker.
“Welker only has 40 catches. Not like he’s done anything yet,” Ryan said with a laugh. “I’m sure Darrelle will have an opportunity to cover him.”
The two have been locked up in single coverage before. Revis matched up with Moss in Week Two of last season, but in the two other meetings between the Patriots and Jets in 2010, Revis was moved around a bit. (When Revis was on Welker in those games, Brady would frequently target Deion Branch.)
PFF has run the numbers, and in the last four meetings, when Welker and Revis have been in man coverage, Welker has been targeted five times and caught three passes for 64 yards, with 36 yards after the catch. Overall, in three meetings last season -- including the Jets’ 28-21 playoff victory -- Welker totaled 20 catches for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
On Thursday, Ryan was asked why he wouldn’t put Revis on Welker and leave him there all afternoon. He seemed to hint that there would be a mix.
“You do a lot of things schematically, so sometimes you will take that approach, put him on the best,” Ryan said of Revis. “Sometimes we’ll play him on the right, on the left. Sometimes we’ll put [Antonio Cromartie] on a certain receiver. We look at all those types of matchups.
“But we don’t play just one coverage. If we were playing straight man coverage or something like that, then maybe we would.”
“I think you definitely need to know where [Revis] is,” Belichick said. “Certainly, you have to know what you have with Revis, know what you have with [Antonio] Cromartie, Kyle Wilson, Eric Smith, you know, all the matchups, [David] Harris, whoever they have. A good quarterback and a well prepared team, they know who all those matchups are and when they change and what opportunities those present or maybe limit.”
The Welker-Revis showdown is just one part of what looms as an epic chess match between Belichick and Ryan between the New England passing game and the New York pass defense. How will Ryan try and defend the Patriots’ offense, which leads the league in most major categories? Where will the Patriots look for mismatches? And can the Jets rely on the rest of the defensive backs beyond Revis to provide support?
While there will be some Welker-Revis action in single coverage, it’s also a safe bet that New York will spend some of the afternoon in zone -- that worked in last January’s playoff game, when the Jets flooded the middle of the field with defensive backs and took away much of the area where Welker thrives.
However, the Patriots are better at running the football now than they were last January -- New England averages 5.8 yards per carry, fifth-best in the league, and is also in the Top 10 in rushing yards and rushing yards per game -- and so the idea of using nickel or dime packages against New England could be giving the Patriots an opportunity to lean on BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead and Stevan Ridley to gash the Jets on the ground.
“That’s a great point. If all we do is play the little guys, I think that’s what you’re going to get,” Ryan said when asked if that sort of offense leaves the Jets vulnerable to the run. “But there’s things you can do. Little guys are out there; you can scheme, run blitzes and all that stuff. So it is a chess match, there’s no doubt. But I agree with you, that certainly the smaller you get, the more vulnerable you are to the run.”
In addition, it’s important to note that Revis makes his money working on the outside, and not against slot receivers. If the Jets would go with Revis in single coverage against Welker in the slot, that would presumably open up other opportunities for other New England pass catchers who would be outside, including Branch and potentially Chad Ochocinco.
But the real wild card in all of this for the Patriots is likely at tight end, where youngsters Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have been matchup nightmares in the past. Depending on how the two tight ends are deployed, that could also be a nightmare for the Jets. It’s important to remember that Hernandez only played 25 of the 80 snaps in last January’s playoff loss to New York, as he was hobbled by injury.
Hernandez, more of a wide receiver than a tight end, could also draw Revis for part of the afternoon. According to the Newark Star-Ledger, the Jets corner sounds like he’d welcome that matchup.
“Um, I can cover him, I know that,” Revis said. “Is it going to be me [on Hernandez]? I don’t know.”
Hernandez, who is coming off a left knee injury, returned to practice on Thursday (albeit in a limited role), and said Thursday he would welcome the chance to go head-to-head with Revis.
“I think it would be a good matchup,” said Hernandez, who has nine catches for 152 yards and a touchdown in two career games against the Jets.
But in the end, Sunday figures to come down to The Slot Machine against Revis Island, with the winner giving his team an early advantage in this year’s edition of the AFC’s best rivalry.
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Joe Castiglione talked with John Lackey after he picked up the W against the Twins. Lackey threw seven innings, and retired the 1st twelve batters of the game.
Dave O'Brien talked to John Farrell before the end of the Twins series. The Sox skipper said that Big Papi's success is no surprise given his work ethic.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Dale and DJ roll on with their puck talk and chat some more about the goalie matchup in this series, as well as the lack of a quality power play for both of these teams. In fact, DJ says the Rangers are even worse on the PP than the B’s! The guys also get into the resurgence of Milan Lucic and his deceptive speed and grit. Dale and DJ talk about the similar styles of play for these teams and look forward to Game 2.
Dale and DJ get into the two coaches and their polar opposite styles and demeanor. Both teams play a similar style, but the coaches certainly convey their messages in a different way. Dale isn't buying the Tortorella hype and thinks he's a little overrated. DJ thinks he's a good coach, but isn't a fan of anti-media stance. The guys also talk about Jagr and how he has not lived up to the hype. They weren't expecting him to light it up or be the savior, but DJ says he wasn't prepared for just how slow the aging veteran is. Another big topic for B's fans this season is the play of Tyler Seguin and why he has yet to become the superstar everyone anticipates he will be. This leads to Claude Julien's style and if he does actually have something against the younger players. That Iginla trade shows its ugly head again as well.
WEEI.com's DJ Bean joins Dale in studio for Sports Sunday to discuss the Bruins playoff run. Game 2 is later today and the guys discuss the results of the first game of the series. They get into the construction of the lines for the B's and if they would make any changes. DJ has a few ideas for the lines today. The boys also discuss the two goalies - Tuukka vs Henrik Lundqvist and wonder why people automatically think the Rangers have the edge at goalie. Finally, they get into the legacy and the decisions of Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Linda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
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