Here are 10 matchups worth keeping an eye on when the Patriots meet the Bills in Buffalo on Sunday afternoon:
The Patriots no-huddle against the Bills defense: The Patriots have certainly shown an affinity for stepping on the gas through the first two games of the 2011 season, operating out of the no-huddle for 42 of their 138 plays from scrimmage this year (30 percent). Quarterback Tom Brady have set a quick tempo -- so fast that new faces like offensive lineman Brian Waters have been caught off-guard -- and teams have had problems catching up (New England has utilized the no-huddle in seven of the eight quarters this year -- the only quarter they didn’t use it was the only quarter they didn’t score this season.) While Brady has been quick to remind people that there’s a difference between operating out of the no-huddle and playing “out of control,” expect the Patriots to flash at least some of the uptempo against the Bills on Sunday.
Jerod Mayo against Fred Jackson: While they won’t be lined up directly across the field from one another, this will be one of the marquee individual matchups of the afternoon. Jackson leads the NFL with 229 yards rushing, and is the first Bills player since Thurman Thomas in 1991 to open the season with consecutive 100-yard games. Mayo is a tackling machine who does an excellent job against the run, especially when it comes to lateral sideline-to-sideline pursuit. With the Patriots utilizing more four-man fronts this season, the Patriots linebacker has been freed up to make more plays on the second level. If Jackson is able to break through the line or bounce to the outside, New England expects Mayo to be there. (Check out more on Jackson here from our own Mike Petraglia.)
Scott Chandler against the New England secondary: The idea of a tight end giving the Patriots fits certainly wouldn’t fit the narrative for the 2011 season to this point (it’s been the other way around through the first two games), but it wouldn’t be unexpected, given the state of the Patriots’ safety position and the production in the first two games from Buffalo’s Scott Chandler. New England is hurting at safety -- even if he doesn’t play because of a hand injury, Patrick Chung is certainly not at 100 percent -- and Chandler has put up very impressive numbers over the first two games of the season. At 6-foot-7 and 263 pounds, Chandler is certainly Gronkowski-esque in his game, right down to his red-zone abilities (seven catches for 79 yards and three touchdowns.) If Chandler is matched up in single coverage, look for Josh Barrett (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) to draw the assignment because of his size.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis against the Buffalo run-defense: Through two games, the Bills are in the middle of the pack when it comes to stopping the run, yielding an average of 119.5 yards per game (12th in the league). Not great, but not bad, either. However, in his three career games against Buffalo, Green-Ellis has averaged 102.3 rushing yards per game, including performances of 98 and 104 yards last season. In the wake of Brady’s performance over the first two games, it’s easy to forget the role of Green-Ellis, who leads the team in touches over the first two weeks with 25, but he’ll almost certainly have a sizable role in the offensive game plan this week.
Devin McCourty against Stevie Johnson: McCourty has had a real interesting year -- the second-year defensive back has been thrown on a lot while facing Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson in (mostly) single coverage through the first two games. If the Patriots try and do the same thing on Sunday against the Bills (the focus will likely be on holding Fred Jackson in check, and it’s important to remember that the Patriots have played more man this season than they have in years past), McCourty could be in for another afternoon of single coverage, this time on Stevie Johnson, probably the Bills best and most consistent receiver, who has 12 catches for 162 yards and two touchdowns on the season.
New England’s third-down offense against its third-down defense: The Patriots’ offense has had great success converting on third down this season, picking up 62.5 percent of its chances (second-best in the league). It’s allowed them to put together a series of truly impressive drives, including six of them going for 78 yards or more: two 99-yard drives, a 92-yard drive, an 80-yarder and two 78-yard drives. On the other side of the ball, not so much: after a strong start against the Dolphins (Miami was 2-for-14 on third down), the Chargers lit them up, going 10-for-12 on third down. This week, if those two numbers are somewhere in the middle (at least below 50 percent), it should be enough for New England to keep the Bills’ offense in check.
Brad Smith against the Patriots ... everything: The multifaceted Smith has been a wide receiver, returned kicks, punts and even lined up as a wildcat quarterback over his six-year career (the first five of which were spent with the Jets), but has gotten off to a slow start with his new team in Buffalo -- six carries for 20 yards, one incomplete pass and only one kick return. The Patriots have done an excellent job containing Smith over the course of his career -- in his 10 career games against New England, Smith has never caught a pass, and he’s averaged 17.3 yards per kick return. Wherever he lines up Sunday, they’ll need to keep him in check. “They’re going to try to get the ball into his hands anyway they can,” said Patriots defensive lineman Shaun Ellis, who was a teammate of Smith with the Jets for five years. “He’s an excellent football player with great instincts and ability. He can hurt you. Definitely we need to key in on him.”
Chad Ochocinco against the statistical vacuum created by the absence of Aaron Hernandez: Don’t mean to sound so existential here, but work with me on this one: The Patriots will be missing one of their more impressive downfield threats in Hernandez, who has been targeted 14 times this season by Brady (second-most on the team), and enter the game with only one healthy tight end (as of this point, anyway). While Wes Welker and Deion Branch will continue to get their chances in the passing game, if that confidence level in the new receiver continues to build -- like I believe it is -- no Hernandez could yield more chances for Ochocinco.
Dan Connolly against Kyle Williams: With center Dan Koppen going on injured reserve this week, it certainly appears that the job will belong to Connolly going forward, and after going up against talented San Diego’s defensive line last week, he gets another stern test this week against Williams, one of the better young nose tackles in the league. The 6-foot-1, 301-pounder, who Belichick called “a real good player” on Friday, was considered by our friends over at Pro Football Focus to be the top-rated defensive tackle/nose tackle in 2010, having graded out with a +44.9 rating. PFF also went back and rewatched the Patriots-Bills game last season, and said Williams got some “special attention” from Patriots blocking schemes. It will be interesting to see what sort of attention he draws on Sunday -- chances are good it will include some sort of combination of Connolly and guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters.
The Bills against history: This is a slam-dunk -- the Patriots have won 15 straight against Buffalo dating back to the 2003 season opener. (Overall since 2001, the Patriots are 17-1 against Buffalo, with the average margin of those wins being 30-12.) The 15 straight wins are the NFL’s longest active streak in any series, and while each player will tell you they haven’t been a part of most of those games, a “here we go again” feeling will hang heavy in the air in Buffalo if the Patriots are able to get up early on the Bills.
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