Over the last two months, few teams have changed as much as the Patriots.
The first time they met the Jets this season, Danny Woodhead had yet to play a game for New England, while youngsters like Devin McCourty and Pat Chung hadn’t really asserted themselves in the secondary. In addition, Brandon Tate had yet to evolve into one of the leading return men in the AFC, and the Patriots best offensive lineman — Logan Mankins — was on his couch, engaged in a contract dispute. But the real changes for the Patriots have come at wide receiver. In September, Wes Welker was still working his way back to full strength after a season-ending knee surgery at the conclusion of the 2009 season, while Deion Branch was still in Seattle and Tom Brady had Randy Moss as his No. 1 option in the passing game.
Of course, back in September, New York looked a lot different as well. The Jets had just endured a memorable week where they were humiliated in the season opener by the Ravens, and then were the subject on an investigation by the NFL for their treatment of a female reporter. New York was also missing wide receiver Santonio Holmes, who was sitting out four games for a violation of the league's substance abuse policy. Quarterback Mark Sanchez was still a work in progress and trying to incorporate new faces like LaDainian Tomlinson into the offense. Meanwhile cornerback Darrelle Revis was still working himself back into shape after an offseason holdout.
That's why, when it comes to breaking down how this meeting between the Patriots and the Jets is going to play out at Gillette Stadium a week from Monday, you can look at tendencies and schemes to give you some idea as to how teams match up at this stage of the season, but when it comes to personnel, this game will likely have very little in common with what happened in September, a 28-14 New York win.
Since mid-September, Woodhead, McCourty and Chung have all become key pieces for the Patriots. Tate has struggled as of late, but remains at or near the top of most of the key return categories. Mankins is back in the fold, having signed his tender last month. And instead of Moss, the combination of Welker and Branch has added a dynamic look to the New England passing game.
Despite the changes, the September win — and the events of the last two-plus months — has given the Jets the edge in the AFC playoff picture. While both teams are tied at 9-2, New York holds the tiebreaker in the postseason chase because they upended the Patriots in New Jersey two months ago. A win for either team would go a long way toward creating some late-season separation in the AFC playoff chase, as the division leader would have the inside track on home field and (likely) the No. 1 seed in the conference, while the second place team in the division could end up with a potential five-seed in the conference and go on the road to open the postseason.
That September victory is an important chip, and Jets coach Rex Ryan didn't let the media forget about it when he spoke with reporters on a conference call Friday morning.
“We have the same record and we beat them once. I don’t know if we’re looked at in that light, but that’s OK because the great thing is we get to prove it on Monday Night Football in their place,” Ryan said. “We’ll see. I know I feel confident in this football team, I know everybody in our locker room believes we’ll win.”
In that September loss to the Jets, the Patriots took a 14-10 halftime lead, but then watched it all go up in smoke when the Jets had 18 second-half points, thanks in large part to three touchdown passes from Sanchez. New England was held scoreless in the second half, and a large part of that was due to Brady, who was 7-for-16 for 69 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions in the second half.
“We just sucked,” Brady said after that game.
Since then, Brady has put together an impressive run that has some people talking about him as a possible MVP candidate. He hasn’t thrown an interception since late October, and in his last three games, he’s 70-for-95 (74 percent) for 877 yards, nine touchdowns and zero picks. In his last game, he posted just the second perfect quarterback rating of his career.
In addition to Brady, the Patriots have also found success with ex-Jet Woodhead, who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry for the Patriots this season and has caught the eye of his old coach.
“I’ve got a ton of respect for Danny Woodhead. I’ve always thought that he was a terrific player, but I think the main guy you have to game plan is Tom Brady. That’s the guy,” said Ryan. “Danny’s doing a great job. Brady’s smart, he’ll throw it to open receivers, and we have to do a great job of stopping all of their weapons. Woodhead is clearly doing a great job and the other kid with all the names [BenJarvus Green-Ellis] is running the ball pretty well also.”
Patriots coach Bill Belichick, who gave his team three days off in the wake of the win over the Lions on Thursday, said his team — which just played three games in 11 days — will take advantage of the weekend before getting “ready to roll” against the Jets.
“I really appreciate what these guys have done so far this year,’’ Belichick said after Thursday’s win. “To be where we’re at has taken a lot of hard work. It hasn’t always been perfect. It hasn’t even been good, but it is what it is. We’ve got a good opportunity here ahead of us, so we’re going to relax here — kick back for a couple days, try to take this opportunity to rest and spend a little time with our families, and be ready to roll here next week with the Jets.’’
The Jets are also cresting at the right time. Sanchez has played clutch football as of late, particularly in a stirring late win over the Texans. The defense is yielding an average of 17 points per game, and arguably played its’ best game of the season in a Thanksgiving night shellacking of the Bengals.
Small wonder Ryan sounded confident about his team’s chances next Monday.
“I understand New England is moving the ball up and down the field against everybody,” Ryan said. “But I have confidence that that won't be the case (next) week.”
In the end, it’ll be a game that could go a long way in determining who will end up representing the AFC in Dallas in February.
“It’s the marquee game of the year. Both teams are 9-2. It’s not going to get much bigger than that, and the fact that it’s a divisional game,” said Ryan. “I guess the only way it could be better is if it was the last game of the regular season, but this is pretty good right here. Obviously the team that wins is going to have to play fantastic, and we’re just hoping it’s us.”
CHRISTOPHER PRICE
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