Having had 48 hours to digest the excerpts from the unpublished manuscript of jailed former ref Tim Donaghy that were leaked to Deadspin and the reaction to said leaks, a few patterns have emerged:

1. Nothing in the excerpt is really shocking to people who watch the NBA on a regular basis.

2. Those who already believe the NBA is rigged immediately believed everything Donaghy wrote.

3. People in the first group will continue to watch the late game on TNT. People in the second group probably never have.

So, from a certain perspective nothing much has really changed. (Although, as an aside I did take perverse glee in watching ESPN anchors have to utter the word, “Deadspin” on the air after AJ Delaurio’s unholy broadside against the network last week. Somewhere Will Leitch is laughing. Whatever happened to that guy?)

The problem for the NBA, though, is that it doesn’t matter whether you’re inclined to take everything Donaghy says at face value, or whether you have serious reservations about the narrative of a confessed serial liar. The problem is that no matter how you associate yourself with the Association, Donaghy’s revelations feel like there’s a ring of truth to them.

Much of what was excerpted is essentially walking around knowledge. Stars get preferential treatment, some refs don’t like some players (and vice-versa) and bored officials construct little games within the games to keep themselves interested.

Stars getting preferential treatment isn’t that unusual from other sports. The NFL, for example, has specifically altered the rules to protect their biggest stars; i.e. quarterbacks. Established pitchers may get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches, same as for established hitters. Most of that is basic human nature, which doesn’t make it any less distasteful, but it doesn’t make it all that shocking either.

But it’s the other stuff Donaghy alleged about how the league would subtly, or maybe even not so subtly, influence the outcome of games by assigning specific refs who favor one side or the other, or who carry out the league’s (alleged) orders that’s so problematic.

That’s different than buying into the notion that the NBA is actually some sort of WWE-style infotainment designed from the top down to augment TV ratings and sell officially licensed product. If that was truly the case, how did we get a Magic-Lakers Finals instead of the Kobe-LeBron marketing orgy that everyone without a rooting interest so breathlessly anticipated? Or, how do you explain the run by the Spurs that included less than compelling Finals drama against the Nets and Pistons?

Ultimately, the problem lies in the perception that a game will somehow be an unfair contest before it even begins. It’s hard to counter a widely-held perception, even one advanced by a convicted felon with an axe to grind and a need for income. If fans expect their team to get screwed, they’re going to feel like they got screwed whether they actually did or not, and it doesn’t take much of a rationale to come to that conclusion.

Donaghy highlighted the now infamous 2002 Game 6 between the Lakers and Kings, which was a shrewd choice from a writing perspective. Everyone knows about that game. Even Ralph Nader called for an investigation at one point. No one would argue that it was at the very least a poorly officiated game, or that the Lakers shot 27 free throws in the fourth quarter while the Kings shot nine. It’s the grassy knoll of NBA conspiracy theories as Deadspin’s Tommy Craggs put it.

Of course, Donaghy’s allegations are tied up in hearsay, gossip and second-hand information, but, again, that’s beside the point. The perception existed well before Donaghy put it into words and it will exist long after his book ever sees the light of day, if in fact it ever does.