So much talk the last few weeks about a potential first-round playoff collapse by the Black and Gold, and whether the Bruins are actually as good as they appeared during the first half of the year.
The quick-and-dirty answers to each of the question is no.
It’s true the Bruins have been treading water for some time now, and that the Devils crept up on the hibernating B’s during a deep late winter sleep. It’s also true teams close to the bottom like Pittsburgh and New York Rangers are significantly better than they were in the first half, and could pose problems for Claude Julien and Co. during a postseason standoff.
In fact, if I were heading into the playoffs, I’d be looking to avoid Sean “Sloppy Seconds” Avery, Chris Drury and Henrik Lundqvist at all costs, and instead take my chances with the Hurricanes, Panthers, the fading Sabres or even the dreaded Habs.
Just imagine if the hockey world takes a 180-degree flip and the Bruins are the top seed against No. 8 Montreal when the ice chips settle at the end of the NHL regular season. That might be just the kind of emotional depth charge the B’s needs to exorcise all the complacency demons that seeped into their game during the last few months.
Granted, the Bruins shouldn’t need any kind of emotional or psychological jolt once the playoffs begin, but a series against the Hated Habs would certainly light the dynamite and set off the Black and Gold. It’s exactly the kind of emotional prompt that the Bruins need to play their best brand of hockey, and it’s something that Mike Komisarek, Alex Kovalev and the Flying Kostitsyns will provide the Black and Gold if the first round ends up at the Bell Centre.
It’s exactly the kind of challenge that brought out Boston’s best on Sunday afternoon when New Jersey stormed into the Garden looking to overtake the Bruins in the East — and lo and behold, the mighty B’s finally rediscovered their snarl.
Plus, Montreal is a pretty good time in April for your favorite hockey writer. Something about the beautiful architecture in Old Montreal in the springtime, I guess.
There are also a few good stiff jabs at noted hockey guru Michael Felger sprinkled throughout the Hagg Bag, so stay tuned for all that and more in another epic turn of the Bag.
One more quick note: a slap on the wrist to Mike from Attleboro for not sending in a his normally gut-busting e-mail this week. You’re slipping down the depth chart Mike, and you’re going to be a healthy scratch for the Tecmo Bowl tourney if this continues. Then, somebody else will run the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs offense with the Nigerian Nightmare. Who is going to compare our favorite Boston sports media personality to Nien Numb if you won’t do it, Mike from A?
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Hey Joe,
Enjoyed the great debate, nice work.
Having watched about 60-65 games this season, albeit on TV, my top impression was the one you also opened with:
They pounded on the lowly Atlanta Thrashers four times and spread the pain around multiple times to the weak sister Tampa Bay Lightning, Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers (before they really got their groove going in the second half) in those first few months, and even the veteran Bruins players knew that the goals wouldn’t be coming nearly as easily as they did in the first half.
In my view, the Bruins have dominated, through both physical play and skill, the mediocre to awful teams in the league. But they have been about a .500 team against top teams, I don’t know the actual numbers, but I’d be surprised if they have winning record against New Jersey, Wash or the Flyers. In short, I don’t think the Bruins are the best team in the league, but they are certainly a team that should be able to dispense with a first-round opponent.
I’d think the Devils would be favored against the Bruins (and maybe every other team in the east, if not the entire league at this point) and a series between the Bruins and the Caps, Flyers or even the Pens, would be a toss up. I would probably however ultimately give the nod to the Bruins, assuming they maintain home ice advantage (probably a given) and Tim Thomas does not get hurt.
While Felger seems obsessed with this notion that Thomas is a potential negative in the playoffs, I take the complete opposite view that he is probably the greatest strength the team will have entering the post-season (Thomas, not Felger).
Although the team has several elite talented players, I think Thomas is among the very best at his position in the league. He is probably second only to Marty Brodeur in the east, and he maybe better than anybody in the west, including Luongo and Kiprusoff.
And ultimately, the playoff are not about offense, they are about defense. For all their firepower last season, the Penguins were shocked to find out how difficult it was for them to generate any offense in the first two games against Detroit. The same with Ottawa against the Ducks in 07. The Bruins road to success is more likely to be paved by their elite ability to defend, than their ability to generate offense. If the opposition can’t score, the Bruins will always find ways to create something.
Finally, while not to suggest that a first-round loss would not be a disaster, I think the “shame” of last seasons first-round loss is also being over hyped. Only about half the teams in the league make the playoffs. Of those, eight will be gone in the first round.
So more than 2/3 of the league fails to accomplish anything like winning the first-round of the playoffs. The eight that remain, are certainly an elite bunch. I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the Bruins are not among that elite eight this year. There’s a good chance they are among the top four, and if all falls into place, they maybe among the top two.
Last year, the Bruins were certainly not among the top eight teams in the league. As you point out, had they taken out the Canadiens, it would have been a major upset and a perfect example of Thomas overachieving, as he is apt to do.
If an upstart but mediocre NFL team had put together a late season run to grab a wild card spot, and taken a division winner to overtime before losing in the first round of the playoffs, and returned the following season to have the best record in the conference and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, I don’t think Felger would be harping about how that NFL team could be due for a first-round exit.
Anyway, none of this is news to you, just thought I’d offer some other talking points on the subject.
Graig
JH: Thanks Graig. Your offerings from the west coast are always welcome, and you even got marquee first-letter billing this week. Good stuff. I have to agree with most everything that you write here about — in essence — the Bruins perhaps not being quite as good as the team that we witnessed kicking hockey butts and taking French-Canadian names in the first half of the year.
Even during the hottest of scoring streaks, many of the veteran players along with Claude Julien cautioned that things wouldn’t be the same way in the second half of the season — and that’s exactly what has come to pass since the NHL All-Star break.
Here’s the Bruins’ records against each of the other nine teams still in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff hunt:
Flyers: 1-1-1
Devils: 2-1-1
Hurricanes: 4-0-0
Canadiens: 4-0-1
Penguins: 2-1-1
Sabres: 2-2-1
Rangers: 1-1-1
Panthers: 3-1-0
Capitals: 1-2-1
Overall, the Bruins have a 20-9-7 record against playoff-caliber competition in the East and a 4-4-3 overall record against the big three of the Devils, Capitals and Flyers just below them in the standings. Not bad when you cover the entire gamut of playoff hopefuls, and not exactly “avert your eyes” material when you’re just considering Boston’s biggest trio of challengers.
But the records do back up the basic premise: The Bruins did a great job in the first half of the season pounding the lesser teams in the East and waxing many of the Western teams as well. But they’ve run pretty close to even against stronger opponents that they’re most likely to meet in the later rounds.
It’s an idea I’ve had all along. The B’s will avoid the Doomsday scenario of losing to their first-round opponent for one big reason: their defense and the goaltending of Tim Thomas are simply too good for a team like the offensively-challenged Hurricanes or the Panthers to overcome in a first round best-of-seven series.
But things get a lot murkier when you advance to the next two rounds and the opposition has plenty of skill along with postseason experience and — in some cases — pretty solid goaltending.
It’s also critical that the B’s hold on to the top spot in the Eastern Conference and, A) clinch home ice through their entire conference playoff run, and, B) put off any potential matchup against the Devils or the Capitals until the conference finals. Both teams have proven they’re just as good as the B’s throughout the season, and both teams have more playoff experience — in some instances slightly more and much, much more in others — than the entirety of the Spoked B roster.
I’m also somebody that thinks Tim Thomas isn’t even close to a big concern entering the postseason, but I wouldn’t say that I think the B’s are better off without Thomas than, say, Roberto Luongo (I like Thomas as much as the next guy, but c’mon … I take Luongo 10 times out of 10), but goaltending has been a huge strength of this team all season and will continue to be once the postseason begins.
Which Eastern Conference goaltender would I rather have than Thomas come playoff-time?
Jesus Price? Hell no, the desperate Habs have planted his burned-out butt on the bench.
Cam Ward? Not a bad goalie at all, and he showed an ability to get hot and help carry a team when he led his ’Canes to the Cup back in 2005-06, but Yann Danis, Scott Clemmensen and Jonas Hiller all have a higher save percentage than Ward’s .913 mark this season (good for 19th in the NHL).
Marc-Andre Fleury? Not a chance in hell, even though he ditched those butt-ugly yellow goalie pads that reminded me of somebody driving a Corvette with a bright yellow paint job. Seriously, who consciously decides they want their car to be painted yellow and why are they always cruising to Kelly’s for some roast beef with the T-tops down?
Martin Biron and Antero Nittymaki? Definitely a weak link on that Flyers team and a reason that I think they couldn’t/wouldn’t beat the B’s in a playoff series.
Henrik Lundqvist? Once again, a big-name goaltender, but the numbers don’t blow me away — particularly when the Rangers have been a team relying more on goaltending and defense than offense this year and his numbers should be incredible. Besides, after watching Lundqvist’s act at the NHL All-Star weekend this year, I came away thinking one thing: the guy is too pretty to be a great goaltender.
He had the Brooks Brothers wardrobe and an unnaturally polished A-Rod sheen to his face, and was pretty much the polar opposite of blue collar Tim Thomas while sharing a podium with Thomas at the All-Star event. That means my vote goes to Timmy.
Jose Theodore? No … not even close. He’s the reason the Capitals won’t get to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Tomas Vokoun? You might have an argument there. The Florida Panthers goalie is second in the NHL behind Thomas in save percentage, and he’s got two more shutouts than Thomas on his ledger for this season. I’ll put Vokoun down as a maybe because he’s one reason the Bruins would just as soon skip past the Panthers in the first round. He’s the kind of flaming hot goaltender that could potentially steal a game or two and create an upset.
Martin Brodeur? He looked a bit rusty in Sunday’s game, but let’s not kid ourselves. He’s still the man and he’s got a good hockey team skating in front of him. There’s a reason he’s the only guy to cute the nets away from the post.
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Haggs,
I’ve been thinking more and more about the Kessel or Krejci option for next season. Since it’s a slow week I figured I’d toss it out there. Ideally, I’d like to keep both but realize it could be tough to do with the cap. Everyone seems to think it’s a no-brainer to keep Krejci and try to move Kessel. I’m on the other side of the fence.
Considering the Bruins depth up the middle on the roster and in the minors and the unique skill set Kessel possesses, couldn’t you make the argument that Kessel is more valuable?
Who else in the system possesses his speed and scoring ability? Could guys like Hamill and Colborne develop into good all-around players like Krejci, making him the more expendable of the two?
Considering what he’s gone through early on in his career, cancer and mono, and the game-breaking talent he possesses, I think it would be a huge mistake to let him go. Even when he “disappears” I still see him getting chances, but not burying them and using his speed to create space.
During the teams recent slump he seems to be one of the few constant threats to score in the lineup. I think Kessel is harder to replace and you’d miss him more in the long run.
What do you think? If you are doing a mailbag soon you can answer this question there if you want.
Dave
JH: This is the Hagg Bag, Dave, so here comes your answer.
Yes, it’s true that the Bruins have some pretty impressive organizational depth up the middle at the center position, but — if I’m in a gun to my head-type situation — I’d choose Krejci over Kessel if I could only have one.
Ideally, the Bruins can lock both guys up to 2-3 year deals that make sense given the unknown economic footing that exists next year and beyond. GMs are working under the assumption that the salary cap will be dropping as much as $2 million next season, but they have zero idea what’s going to happen beyond that in a fiscal landscape where people are losing jobs left, right and center. While attendance is up in most NHL cities, they’ll be far from immune to it.
One positive byproduct of the slumps that affected both Kessel and Krejci this season is that it will save the Bruins some money when it comes to the bottom line. Kessel isn’t going to be a 50-goal scorer this season, and won’t be paid like one. Krejci would have commanded much more money if he were in the 90-100 point range that he seemed destined for midway through the season.
Both would seem to command something in the $3-5 million range per season if the standards were the same in the marketplace as they’ve been over the last two seasons, but we know that’s not going to be the case. So, it should be an interesting summer of market corrections — but let’s not put the cart before the hockey horse here.
It’s true that goal-scorers don’t grow on trees, and Kessel has the chance to be the next great Black and Gold sniper. But there’s also the human element at play here. Kessel, on several occasions in his short career, has needed prodding and reminders to play a harder, more competitive, two-way game. Part of it is clearly the maturation of a 21-year-old player that concerned himself with scoring goals and not much else as he climbed up the hockey development chain, but there’s also got to be some trepidation at giving a big money guaranteed contract — and a bit of a hammer — to a winger that still needs to feel the coach’s whip every once in a while.
Krejci obviously has the passing skills to be a top six center once he figures it all out and stops being so hard on himself, and there’s a chance in time he can be the same kind of playmaker that Marc Savard is now. Plus, there hasn’t ever been a question about the nightly effort that Krejci is giving the Bruins, or his willingness to help the Bruins in areas like the PK. If anything, he’s too hard on himself as a 22-year-old and that’s the only thing holding him back from another offensive explosion at this point in the season.
If I were a GM, I’d think long and hard about this one, but I’d probably commit to Krejci before Kessel — and I’d still try to sign both if I could. Other contracts may be moved in the offseason in order to make retaining Kessel, Krejci, Matt Hunwick and Tim Thomas more of a possibility, so stay tuned.
One final thing to think about: 40-goal scorers are just as rare as cornerstone defenseman and franchise goaltenders, and Kessel’s speed makes him a rare commodity.
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Joe,
Just read your head to head with Felger regarding the Bruins playoff chances. Someone might advise Felger to stick with something he has a clue about. When he posts a comment regarding Kessel and his “history” of disappearing, one wonders what history that might be since he’s only played two years prior in the league. The only history one might refer to here is the one in which Felger, time and again, makes a total fool of himself.
Peter
JH: I think making a fool of himself has never been much of a deterrent to Felger as you can tell by the way it took him less than 24 hours to poo-poo the Bruins’ rousing Sunday afternoon win over the Devils.
I thought the same thing when I read Felger’s attempt to make some assertions about Kessel’s “history.” The only observation we can derive from Kessel’s past three years is that he can skate like the wind, he’s got a trigger snap-shot when he gets himself into the open areas in front of the net and he’s only going to get better. In the negative column, he’s shown that he also needs some incentive from time-to-time to really plunge in and full invest himself at full Kessel speed. (I could make a cheap Kessel Run joke here, but I’ll refrain from my “Star Wars” geekery for a bit.)
It’s hoped that he’ll grow out of that as he gets older and will simply play with heightened intensity and urgency all the time, but it’s really an unknown heading into some pretty serious contractual negotiations this summer.
The only certainty is that Felger will once again opine about anything and everything, whether he’s full of clues or bereft of them.
Funny story from the Bruins locker room: several players have approached me through the year and commented/critiqued on seeing me talking about the Bruins on Comcast SportsNet’s “Mohegan Sun Sports Tonight,” and in every instance the conversation has gone pretty close to the same way.
The last two players to do it were Aaron Ward and Shawn Thornton, and both — in their own unique ways — seemed to indicate to me that they were at least mildly entertained by what they saw. I’ll really stress the “mild” part of that statement. But then they both said the same exact thing to me. They asked me who the host of the show was, and then followed by saying, “He doesn’t really know that much about hockey, does he?”
The host on both of those occasions: yup, you guessed it. It was hockey insider Mike Felger.
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Haggs,
With the exception of sitting (Blake) Wheeler, what has Claude really done to wake this team up? Someone needs to have a seat because they do have guys like Johnny Boychuk and Jeremy Reich that will come up and NOT go through the motions. They keep saying the right thing, but the message clearly isn’t getting through.
Fitzy
JH: This letter was sent prior to Sunday’s win over the Devils, so Fitzy has softened in several e-mails sent since this point. But his take about Providence is an interesting one. Boychuk isn’t a guy that is really much of a factor to come up and help at this point given the depth that the B’s have on defense with both Shane Hnidy and Steve Montador serving as the healthy scratches.
Interesting side note: no NHL team could absorb a player like Reich on their own team with entry waivers if the Bruins did call him up to Boston, but they could claim the player as a punitive measure. In that case, Reich wouldn’t play for the rival NHL team that claimed him but he also couldn’t play for the Bruins. A maneuver that a team perhaps destined to play the B’s in the playoffs might think long and hard about.
The energy boost that Fitzy was looking for, however, was actually filled by Matt Hunwick on Sunday, who could be a real fire-starting spark for the Black and Gold going forward. Hunwick might be a bit of a scary proposition for Julien and his defensive style because he’s a risk-taker and he will sometimes make some rookie-type mistakes out on the ice, but the young blueliner does something vitally important: he makes things happen every time he’s on the ice.
He’s one of the fastest skaters on the frozen sheet every time he laces them up, he does some pretty creative things while attempting to move the puck on the breakout and he’s shown some real potential while playing the point on the power play — and, most important of all, he’s proven that he belongs in this Bruins lineup down the stretch and into the playoffs.
I still remember a simple D-to-D pass behind the net on Sunday against the Devils when he drew a New Jersey forechecker in close to him and then made a slick behind the back pass to Mark Stuart that prompted a clean breakout into the offensive zone. The B’s could use more creativity and speed out of their blueliners, and Hunwick is providing it with some pretty bright moments right now.
He’s gone from a sixth-round pick trying to distinguish himself to a skilled defenseman that could be with the Bruins for a good, long time in one short hockey season.
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Haggs,
I'd like to see Lucic check some bodies around, even if that means Lucic has to drop the gloves with one of the tough guys. It would be good to see him bring that type of intensity come playoff time.
Chris
JH: Lucic has picked up his hitting in recent weeks, and actually told me several weeks back his hitting had slackened because he didn’t have anything to be angry about for a stretch of time. In that case, I say it’s time to get Felger into the locker room and let him give some of his “ideas” to the Incredible Looch.
Getting angry won’t be a problem once it gets to be playoff time and you’re going up against the same opponent night in and night out for seven games — particularly if it’s a Montreal team that’s got plenty of past history with Lucic.
It isn’t always necessary for Looch to drop the gloves in order to stay effective, though. He needs to simply be a physical force that makes defensemen think twice about retrieving the puck in the corners. That’s why Aaron Ward nicknamed him “Moses” earlier in the season, and it’s a unique element that he’ll bring to the lineup in the playoffs.
Lucic was one of Boston’s best players during last year’s playoff series against the Canadiens, and time and again he’s enjoyed big games when the stakes were the highest: this season against the Canadiens during the game when Georges Laraque was chasing him around the ice, two goals against the San Jose Sharks, a big deflected backhand against the Devils on Sunday afternoon.
The examples are many.
In a short time, he’s become a player that can be relied upon to thrive when the pressure begins to affect others in adverse ways. He’s also capable of beating the proverbial snot out of just anybody in a brawl, so that makes him a pretty valuable piece.
Talking about Lucic also brings a story to mind with all of the recent chatter about banning fighting from the NHL. I’m one of those hockey people who thinks that fighting is engrained within the very fabric of the game and it would be a colossal blunder to outlaw good, old-fashioned throwdowns. The example I always use is this: I was watching a Bruins game earlier this season at a bar in Cambridge, and people were casually glancing at the TV to check the score. But this was the People’s Republic after all, so there were others discussing Kierkegaard and the National exports of Uzbekestan rather than obsessively following a B’s game against the Penguins.
Then Lucic dropped the gloves and started trading haymakers with a Pittsburgh tough guy, and all eyes rapidly fixed on the TV with audible hoots and hollers in chorus from around the bar. It was the one moment when everybody was watching what was happening in the game.
The NHL wants to get rid of this?
Fighting is something that makes the NHL unique among the big four pro sports, and that’s something Gary Bettman and Co. should be celebrating and trumpeting rather than sweeping under the rug like something to be ashamed of.
It may seem to be a bit of a Roman coliseum feel to the outsider — or to the dreadful P.C. Canadian talking heads that want to see fighting banished — but hockey fighting comes with its own rules and etiquette that make it something that needn’t be strangled out of the game.
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Haggs,
Starting to feel like the B's are going to be this years Ottawa. Can't beat the good teams, can't beat the bad teams, backup goalies blow a game, refs blow a game (phantom highstick on Chara, no call on charge into Thomas). Starting to feel like Charlie Brown when Lucy pulls the football out from underneath him again.
Mike
JH: Spoken like a true member of Bruins Nation that’s been shamed, insulted and beaten down into believing in the Charlie Brown/Murphy’s Law syndrome that anything that can go wrong with your hockey team will go wrong, and go wrong big. (That would be much different than Charlie Murphy syndrome, which is what happens when Dave Chappelle leaves you without a full-time gig.)
I can’t help but think that a lot of Bruins fans out there are in the same pre-2004 mode of Red Sox fans that are simply waited for the other shoe to drop and for their team — in this case a squad filled with promise that really excited so many in the first half — to eventually disappoint in the playoffs.
It’s a tailspin that can really pull you off the B’s bandwagon if you let it, Mike. I say just go the Stuart Smalley route. This Bruins team is good enough, they’re smart enough and dog gone it, people like them. Now go kick the hell out of that football Lucy is holding, and then sit down for a Bruins playoff run that I think gets them to at least the Eastern Conference finals. You’ve really got to do something about that squiggly line hair-do of yours, though, you blockhead.
Joe Haggerty covers the Bruins for WEEI.com.
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