The funny thing about this Hawks-Celtics series is that for a hard-fought, defensive struggle, no one is giving Atlanta much of a chance. Four games have been decided by a total of three points, including an overtime contest in the Garden when the Hawks were missing their top three frontcourt players. If not for Paul Pierce’s heroics in the second game of the series, things would be looking at a lot different heading into Thursday night’s Game 6. Not only are people not giving the Hawks a chance, they keep expecting Atlanta to fold like it’s 2008.

This is a different time. The Hawks are older and tougher, if not wiser on the offensive end where they’re still prone to jacking up contested isolated jump shots. They are also getting healthier and a team with Al Horford playing 40 minutes instead of Jason Collins and Ivan Johnson is a much different bird.

And yet, the expectation is that on Thursday the Celtics will wrap things up and begin the next step toward their manifest destiny, i.e. a blood-and-guts showdown with the Heat in the conference finals where LeBron James will be forced to confront his evil leprechaun nightmare yet again.

For that to happen, the Celtics need the man who came to his postgame press conference dressed in a zebra-print jacked that called to mind the great Morris Day and the Time. They need Rajon Rondo.

As is his custom, Rondo has been alternately brilliant and maddening. He was the best Boston player on the floor in Game 1 before getting himself suspended for Game 2. He recorded a triple double in Game 3 with a never-before-seen stat line of 17-14-12 and four steals despite having a mediocre game and then was even better in Game 4 with 20 points, 16 assists and one turnover.

In a brief stretch of Game 5, Rondo was the best player on the planet, scoring six points in under a minute and in the words of coach Doc Rivers, willing the tired Celtics back into the game. In most of the other 42 minutes he played, Rondo was decidedly average at best and a non-factor at worst. (Passing up on an uncontested layup to make a tough bounce pass that led to a turnover was one of many questionable decisions).

Finally, his steal at the end of regulation could have been entered into the Havlicek-Bird pantheon, but instead he dribbled into a trap and couldn’t get off a final shot. So it goes with Rondo. The playoffs are waiting for him to emerge as its signature player and Game 6 is his chance to begin to claim it for himself and begin to put a period and exclamation point on his part in the Big 3 era.

What they lose without Avery Bradley

All series long, the Celtics have been waiting for Joe Johnson to move to the guard position and it finally happened in Game 5. As expected, the 6-foot-7 Johnson went right at 6-foot-2 Avery Bradley and as expected, Rivers went to his bench.

Bradley played just 18 minutes in Game 5, while Ray Allen did most of the work, scoring 15 points on 10 shots in the other thirty. Allen was terrific – save for a pair of missed free throws – but Bradley is a dynamic game-changer who has played a central role in the Celtics’ rise from old-man dangerous to dangerous, period.

As colleague Ben Rohrbach pointed out:

In 18 minutes, Bradley and Pierce respectively held Johnson and Williams to six points on 2-for-14 shooting (0-5 3P) and forced them into four turnovers. In the remaining 30 minutes — largely with Pierce on Johnson and Allen on Williams — that Hawks duo scored 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting (4-6 3P) and committed just two turnovers.

Johnson had a typical Johnson game: He shot 6-for-17 and made a handful of tough shots that made people remember how dangerous he can be. He also missed a bunch of contested ones that made people remember how much he gets paid. It wasn’t about Johnson, however.

Where Bradley was really missed was on Jeff Teague, who was a creative pest all night for the Hawks. Teague scored 16 points to go with five assists and remains the one Atlanta player capable of breaking his man down off the dribble and causing havoc in the paint.

Without Bradley, the task of guarding Teague fell to Rondo and that presents a problem. Rondo has recorded 16 steals in his four games, mostly by playing off Kirk Hinrich. Rondo can’t gamble as much when he’s guarding the ball, but Rivers can’t afford to take him off the floor and that leaves Bradley on the sidelines watching.

Can the Celtics get Kevin Garnett involved?

The only player in the series with more than 100 minutes played shooting 50 percent or better is Kevin Garnett. He’s second on the team in points and attempts behind Paul Pierce, but he’s still not getting enough good looks.

Garnett was 7-for-12 in Game 5, but he had zero attempts at the rim and only three from inside the paint. This has been a series-long concern for the Celtics and it’s something they haven’t been able to correct.

For the millionth time, Garnett isn’t a true post-up player and the Celtics don’t want him to be – his outside shooting is crucial to their long-held spacing issues. Still, they need to establish him in the flow of the offense and in Game 5 the flow was more like a slow trickle.

“I thought when you look at the last couple of games, we had great motion and movement, offensively,” Rivers said. “I didn’t think we had any of that tonight. I thought we were a stagnant basketball team.”

That has a major effect on Garnett who relies on ball movement for his jumper. Part of the issue in Game 5 was getting defensive stops more importantly, allowing 13 offensive rebounds. It was played at a slow pace – just 87 possessions – and when the Celtics did try to break out in transition, once again it was Rondo who was way out in front of the pack. If Pierce continues to be affected by his knee injury and the Hawks’ big lineup makes Bradley a non-factor, the onus is on Garnett and Rondo to deliver big games.

How good has Garnett been in this series? Per Basketball Value, the Celtics are more than 52 points better when he's on the court than when he's off per 100 possessions. That's the best mark in the NBA. (Some of that is inflated by the Celtics' blowout win in Game 4, but that doesn't diminish how important he's been.)

Without Garnett, the Celtics are giving up almost 107 points per 100 possessions. That's a big reason why Ryan Hollins has been getting more time than Greg Stiemsma. With Hollins on the floor, the C's are giving up 80 points per 100 possessions, while the Hawks are scoring over 100 points per 100 possessions with Stiemsma on the court.