On Sunday night in Charlotte, Rajon Rondo scored 20 points and handed out 16 assists in a 94-82 Celtics victory over the Bobcats. Rondo’s line didn’t even seem that unusual -- he’s handed out double-digit assists in 22 straight games, the longest run since John Stockton’s 29 in 1992 -- but it was the circumstances that gave it added weight.
Rondo was playing without Ray Allen, Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett, and instead found himself in the starting lineup with four players who were slotted for bench duty when the season began. Only one -- Brandon Bass -- was even in the rotation back on Christmas Day. True, it came against the woeful Bobcats, but Rondo was matched up with D.J. Augustin, a fourth-year guard who has been a solid, if unspectacular, player since he arrived in the league.
Rondo’s play was critical for a team that is still fighting for playoff positioning. They had fallen behind Atlanta in the race for homecourt advantage in the first round, and another loss would have been damaging. If the Celtics were going to win the game, Rondo would have to be engaged and dynamic. He was. Rondo was not just looking for teammates as a facilitator, he was aggressively looking to score, something coach Doc Rivers has wanted him to do all season.
It was some validation that Rondo is not just a creation of The Big Three, a fortunate guard who found himself in a perfect situation to rack up assists. Of course, it can also be argued that Rondo’s skill-set blends perfectly with his veteran teammates because of his pass-first mentality and their ability to make jump shots.
All of that is important because context is crucial when talking about NBA players and their performances. That’s true of both our observations and the statistics we use to quantify how well, or not, someone is playing. In particular, Rondo is not an easy player to quantify. He has been amassing huge numbers and in typical Rondo style, he’s done them in over the top fashion.
He’s recorded 303 assists in the last 22 games, which has vaulted him ahead of Steve Nash for the highest per-game average. His impressive streak aside, Rondo isn’t a consistent machine like Nash. Rather his specialty is make-your-jaw-drop performances that leaving you scrambling for historic comparisons. Case in point: He has six triple doubles this season. Nine other players are tied for second with one.
And yet, by other measures, Rondo grades out as a good, but not elite point guard. Among point guards who play more than 30 minutes a night, Rondo ranks 14th in John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) behind players like Jarrett Jack, Ty Lawson and Brandon Jennings.
For some that’s proof that advanced numbers are meaningless. For others, it’s an invitation to find out why Rondo ranks so low and the answer is fairly obvious: He’s not a very good shooter. His true shooting percentage (which accounts for two’s, three’s and free throws) is just over 48 percent, ranking him next to last among point guards who play more than 30 minutes a night. He also turns it over at a higher rate than any other comparable point guard in the league after Nash.
(Fun aside: Are turnovers overrated? Answer: sometimes).
Hollinger’s PER is a total derived from a formula that calculates numbers found in the box score. It’s a tool, not the end-all and be-all of statistical basketball analysis. Given Rondo’s less-than-stellar shooting numbers and his high amount of turnovers, it’s no surprise that he doesn’t grade out among the league’s best in that particular statistic.
But he has to be doing something right. We know that simply by A) watching him play and B) the team’s 21-8 record since the All-Star break. His numbers don’t tend to him do justice, even when they enter sublime territory, like his assist streak.
“Well, that’s phenomenal,” Rivers said last week after the streak reached 19 games. “Honestly, I don’t even know what that means. I know it means that he’s playing vey well, but I don’t need the numbers to tell me that is what I’m trying to say.”
Rivers often says that he never looks at Rondo’s numbers because if the team plays well, that’s usually a reflection of his point guard. The same holds true if it doesn’t. For his part, Rondo has no use for numbers. “It means guys are putting the ball in the hole,” he said nonchalantly when asked about his assists recently.
But advanced metrics aren’t just about counting up numbers found in the box score. We also have more-developed plus-minus data that can help tell us a player’s impact when he’s on -- and just as importantly -- when he’s off the court.
The Celtics score 102.8 points per 100 possessions when Rondo’s in the game, a figure that would move them move from awful -- where they are now -- to merely mediocre. But when Rondo leaves the game, their offensive production tumbles all the way down to 95 points per 100 possessions, which is catastrophically bad. It’s worse than the Bobcats, for example.
The Celtics are 7.74 points better on offense when Rondo is in the game than when he’s out, a number that ranks seventh among point guards who have played more than 1,000 minutes behind players like Sacramento rookie Isaiah Thomas and Portland’s maligned Ray Felton.
That doesn’t mean that Rondo isn’t as good as those players, obviously. It’s a number that is completely dependent on team context, and on the Celtics the only player who has a greater impact on points per possession is Kevin Garnett. (Garnett’s total on/off differential including defense is 11.58 points per 100 possessions, which ranks ninth in the NBA for players with more than 1,000 minutes played. That’s one of the reasons he’s a more viable MVP candidate than Rondo whose 5.78 point-differential ranks a distant second).
Still, all this data explains some -- but not all -- of Rondo’s importance to the Celtics. During his streak, Rondo has 303 assists, an average of almost 14 a game. The Celtics have made 837 shots during the stretch, so Rondo has assisted on more than a third of their made shots during this run. Adding further context, Rondo has had a hand in over 50 percent of the team’s assists while he was on the floor this season.
That’s important because no team relies on assists more than the Celtics when it comes to making shots. Over 67 percent of their made field goals come via an assist and Rondo is the player who is most responsible for delivering the ball. Of his 11.6 assists per game, more than four per game lead to baskets at the rim, which ranks second behind Nash and 3.8 lead to jump shots from between 16 and 23 feet, the most in the league.
Some people tend to discount the number of Rondo passes that lead to long jumpers, but that’s the way the Celtics play. In Garnett and Bass, they have two of the best long-range shooting big men in the league, not to mention Pierce and Allen. Can you have one without the other? Rondo’s offensive differential when he’s out of the game suggests that they can’t.
Would Rondo’s huge assist numbers take a plunge without the Big Three? Maybe, but it’s worth pointing out that against the Bobcats, six of his assists led to shots at the rim and six led to long jump shots. Rondo didn’t change, even if the personnel on the floor did.
It’s pure speculation how he’d do without the three future Hall of Famers because he’s never had to do it before. While Rondo may complement them perfectly, having players who could run the court with him remains an intriguing open-ended possibility for the future.
Even with all that, there’s no advanced metrics for Rondo’s uncanny ability to thread passes where only his target can catch them. There’s no degree of difficulty meter for the layups that he kisses high off the glass like a hustler running a pool table. All we’re left with is some context for a player who lies just far enough outside the long each of advanced stats to occupy a unique place in the game.
PAUL FLANNERY
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Joe Castiglione talked with John Lackey after he picked up the W against the Twins. Lackey threw seven innings, and retired the 1st twelve batters of the game.
Dave O'Brien talked to John Farrell before the end of the Twins series. The Sox skipper said that Big Papi's success is no surprise given his work ethic.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Dale and DJ roll on with their puck talk and chat some more about the goalie matchup in this series, as well as the lack of a quality power play for both of these teams. In fact, DJ says the Rangers are even worse on the PP than the B’s! The guys also get into the resurgence of Milan Lucic and his deceptive speed and grit. Dale and DJ talk about the similar styles of play for these teams and look forward to Game 2.
Dale and DJ get into the two coaches and their polar opposite styles and demeanor. Both teams play a similar style, but the coaches certainly convey their messages in a different way. Dale isn't buying the Tortorella hype and thinks he's a little overrated. DJ thinks he's a good coach, but isn't a fan of anti-media stance. The guys also talk about Jagr and how he has not lived up to the hype. They weren't expecting him to light it up or be the savior, but DJ says he wasn't prepared for just how slow the aging veteran is. Another big topic for B's fans this season is the play of Tyler Seguin and why he has yet to become the superstar everyone anticipates he will be. This leads to Claude Julien's style and if he does actually have something against the younger players. That Iginla trade shows its ugly head again as well.
WEEI.com's DJ Bean joins Dale in studio for Sports Sunday to discuss the Bruins playoff run. Game 2 is later today and the guys discuss the results of the first game of the series. They get into the construction of the lines for the B's and if they would make any changes. DJ has a few ideas for the lines today. The boys also discuss the two goalies - Tuukka vs Henrik Lundqvist and wonder why people automatically think the Rangers have the edge at goalie. Finally, they get into the legacy and the decisions of Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Buster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showLinda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showJeff Bauman, a victim of the Boston Marathon bombing, joined the show to give the guys an update of his condition and a first-hand account of that terrible day. Jeff told the guys how he wrote the description of the bomber as soon as he could. Mr. Bauman added that he is aided every day with the knowledge that he is alive and the terrorist that detonated the bomb is dead.
More from this showBoomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this show