Here we are, stuck inside the middle of Chris Paul trade rumors with the Rajon Rondo blues again. Reports all over the basketball world have the Celtics once again making a concerted push to land Paul in a package that would obviously include Rondo and some combination of players not named Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett.
The competition for Paul is said to include the Clippers, Warriors and possibly the Lakers and the time for resolution is quickly approaching. The Celtics still need a third team to help make the trade magic happen and on the surface it’s hard to see how they would have the best deal.
And yet … The Clippers are said to be reluctant to include Eric Gordon or DeAndre Jordan without assurances that Paul would sign on for the long-term. The Warriors may be unwilling to include guard Steph Curry, who would be the centerpiece to their offer, for the same reasons. It may turn out that the Celtics willingness to trade for Paul without that guarantee is one of their biggest assets.
Their reasoning is as follows: Paul would represent an upgrade on Rondo, especially on the offensive end where the Celtics fell off last season. (SI’s Zach Lowe spells it out here). Even if Paul doesn’t stay long-term, he could help supply an antidote to their offensive weaknesses and help Pierce, Garnett and Allen try to win one more title.
There’s also the thought that Paul will grow to love Boston and playing for coach Doc Rivers and then help bring Dwight Howard to town in the summer of 2012 when the center can become an unrestricted free agent and the Celtics cap books will be fairly clean. For team president Danny Ainge, that would be the equivalent of pulling an inside straight with all his chips on the table. It also may be necessary in a world where the Heat, Bulls and Thunder are lined up for long runs and everyone else is trying to devise scenarios that would land a combination of Paul/Deron Williams and Howard.
“There’s only a certain amount of superstars born,” Ainge said before last summer’s draft and while he was talking about college prospects, the same holds true for free agents. There are only so many of them in existence and in that regard, the Celtics timing is both perfect and tenuous. The Clippers and Warriors could both trump their bids. The Lakers shouldn’t be forgotten in this either.
What happens if this falls apart?
There’s the obvious conclusion that Ainge will have a wounded Rondo with four years left on his contract. How that plays out is anyone’s guess and attempting to read Rondo’s mind is as much wishful thinking as it’s always been. However, if he ever needed any extra motivation to reach his full potential, the last few weeks have given him ample fuel.
Beyond that, Ainge would be facing the very real dilemma of attempting to rebuild around a talented player who doesn’t really fit in conventional basketball dynamics. There’s not much in the free agent pool after Paul, Williams and Howard in 2012, assuming players like Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love and Gordon don’t see restricted free agency.
The first place to look is Rondo himself. Two seasons ago he shot 51 percent from the field and 64 percent from the free throw line. Last year he was down to 48 and 57 percent, respectively and attempted fewer shots. Rondo’s work as a creative passer is sublime, but without the threat to score he makes the Celtics’ offense much easier to defend.
No doubt injuries paid a large part in his decline last season. He was off to a good start in 2010 before severely spraining his ankle against the Knicks. From there he dealt with arthritis, a back injury and finished the season playing with one arm.
If he can return to his 2009 levels, the Celtics have a legitimate star point guard. If he can improve, they have a cornerstone. If you’re looking for a historical comparison, you could do worse that Gary Payton who improved his shooting percentages and offensive efficiency at around the same age. Rondo may never become a 3-point threat, but if he could raise his free throw percentage to at least 70 percent, he’d be on the right track.
But the Celtics will need a complete makeover once this era ends and Rondo would only be a part of it. That’s the real issue here because the future holds so many unknowns. Perhaps pairing him with athletic finishers like say, Gerald Wallace (player option in 2012) or Atlanta’s Josh Smith who can be a free agent in 2013, would be the way to go. If a player like Love decides he’s had enough of Minnesota, the Celtics could have the cap space to pounce.
This isn’t necessarily a doomsday scenario for Ainge. The Celtics are in a better position than a number of franchises in terms of cap space, a respected coach and financial resources. But there’s no obvious Plan B either and that's why Ainge is going all out now.
PAUL FLANNERY
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