Something fundamentally changed in the NBA this past week.
From the moment the Heat took Game 3 of the finals from the Mavericks to the time LeBron James finally wandered off the court in a bizarre haze of inactivity, the entire league took one giant collective deep breath. Just like that, the hot air of inevitably that surrounds the Heat was blown away in a cold gust of doubt and Schadenfreude, which turned out to be a much tougher customer than karma.
It is possible, maybe even likely, that this loss will spur the Heat to great heights, just as it was for Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant before them. They need tweaks and roster moves obviously, but it will also require a decent amount of introspection and work on the part of James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and coach Erik Spoelstra.
That last part is the tantalizingly thin bit of hope that so many people cling to regarding this team. The Heat were despised for many reasons, but greatest of all was their casual disregard for any kind of a process. They were built in the blink of an eye and began the celebration before even beginning the journey. All season long they gave off the vibe that the well-worn path that every NBA team has to take was somehow beneath them. They’re on it now and perhaps it is simply beyond them.
At some point, however, this does all become inevitable. When you have arguably the best player in the league you have a very good chance of winning a championship. When you have two of the best five players it becomes expected. Throw in a third All-Star and there’s a reason the Heat are the early-line favorites for next season.
Talent, not pop-sports psychology is what wins in the NBA -- provided, of course, that the talent plays up to its capabilities and doesn’t check out when things get rough. Until that happens, every team that considers itself any kind of a contender has to stop and reevaluate after what Dallas was able to achieve.
The Mavericks won 57 games and were interesting primarily for two reasons: They played more zone than everyone else and Dirk Nowitzki was having a phenomenal season considering he was four years removed from his MVP season and supposedly past his prime. If they were thought of as a contender, it was as a peripheral one.
When the playoffs began they were nobody’s pick to win the championship. In fact, they were a popular upset special, especially when they were locked in a 2-2 battle with the Blazers in the first round. Same old Mavs and all that.
Not many people gave them a chance in hell of beating the Lakers and by the time they had swept past them, the world was falling in love with Oklahoma City. The finals? Come on. It wasn’t until they were up by a dozen points in the fourth quarter of Game 6 when the reality set in that the Mavericks were going to win the whole thing.
It’s essentially impossible to build a copycat version of the Mavs for the simple reason that there aren’t any other 7-footers with range out to 23 feet who have an unblockable shot from everywhere on the court.
Beyond Dirk Nowitzki’s singular skills, Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban assembled a team with former franchise players who gladly played different roles (not smaller, different) than they had in their All-Star days and paired them with a strange menagerie of sawed-off misfits and oddball castoffs. They hit the jackpot when they got Tyson Chandler for basically nothing from Charlotte and Jason Terry made just enough ridiculous shots to put the cherry on top of the sundae.
Tying it all together was a masterful coaching performance from Rick Carlisle, who is very much at the top of his profession right now, and able assistants like Dwane Casey, Terry Stotts and Tim Grgurich.
You’d have a hard time replicating that formula with $30 million in cap space and a handful of trade exceptions. Heck, the Mavs may not be able to repeat that performance, which brings us to the Celtics. All indications are that Danny Ainge planned to give it one more shot with his veteran nucleus before Miami’s demise and that resolve can only be strengthened by what transpired.
The Celtics believe that their 4-1 series loss to Miami was closer than people realize. The list of reasons is long and tortured but it includes Paul Pierce’s ejection, Rajon Rondo’s injury and Glen Davis’ disappearing act. Flip any one of those three things around with a better-executed play at the end of Game 4 and it might have gone seven games. Make it two and this is an entirely different conversation. That may be misguided, but that is their belief.
To Ainge’s credit, he has articulated the problem areas – scoring, particularly off the bench, and a younger supporting cast to take the burden off Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen in the regular season. He will try to address those needs this summer. That will be difficult, particularly if a new collective bargaining agreement takes away some of the salary cap exceptions that Ainge needs to sign players.
In order to get past Miami (and Chicago), Ainge will need a great offseason, the Celtics will have to be fortunate in regards to injuries and Jeff Green will have to be much better than he was after arriving from Oklahoma City. Then there is Rondo, who may have not yet reached his creative and athletic peak. He gives the Celtics a clear advantage at an important position and supplies the added bonus of being completely immune -- if not downright disdainful – of Miami’s whirling sideshow.
That’s a large number of things that have to go just right, but it’s also not impossible and that’s the primary lesson the Mavericks provided. In this league all you want is a chance and in this era, trying to build a super-team from scratch may wind up being a fool’s errand. Until Miami figures it out, the NBA is a year-by-year proposition and the Celtics are the ultimate year-to-year team.
This is also a practical matter. In 2012, Garnett, Allen and Jermaine O’Neal will all come off the books and leave Ainge with a chunk of cap space to rebuild around Rondo. If there is a stop-the-presses move to be made then Ainge will surely swing for the fences, but in the absence of a game-changing dynamic (say, a Dwight Howard) then the Celtics will take their chances.
Like it or not, the Heat are not going away, but they have left just enough of an opening for someone to take them down another notch. It won’t be easy, but the opportunity is there and for that the league can thank the Mavericks.
PAUL FLANNERY
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