There is probably nothing to the Chris Paul for Rajon Rondo talk that's been in the air for the last 24 hours or so. An internet creation that has had some legs. Probably nothing more than that, right?
Well …
There is no question that Danny Ainge covets Paul. He tried to trade Paul Pierce for Paul the night of the 2005 NBA draft, but was not able to get it done.
Chris Paul wants out of New Orleans. He wants to have a chance to win a title, and wants some serious co-stars. An early list of places he wants to go does not include Boston, but it's not difficult to imagine that a hard sell from Ainge/Pierce/Garnett could get him interested in the Celtics.
And if the Hornets decide to move Paul, I can't see them doing better than Rondo. Walking into a deal with zero leverage (everyone knows Paul wants out) and somehow escaping with a 24-year-old All-Star point guard with his best basketball ahead of him AND locked into a reasonable contact for the next five years? Not too shabby.
Again, I get that this is all speculation and it's not going to happen. We agree on that. Chris Paul will be a Trail Blazer or Knick or running a pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard next year, and Rajon Rondo will be in Boston, probably inching even closer to superstardom.
But what if the Hornets called Danny Ainge and asked him the question.
Rondo for Paul.
Does he do it?
I think he'd be crazy not to.
Rajon Rondo is a very good player, a guard unlike any other we've ever seen in Boston. It's absolutely possible that he could average a 16-12-8 in a season while leading the league in steals. Trying to figure out where his ceiling is as a player is almost impossible. But what is not impossible is to see him, if everything works out, as a top-10 player in the league.
Well, Chris Paul is already one of the top five players in the league. LeBron, Wade, Kobe and Durant are the only guys I would take over him. He's better today than Rondo's best-case scenario. Just look at what's he's done in his five years in the league:
Two top-five MVP finishes (second in 2008. Rondo has never received an MVP vote).
All-NBA First Team in 2008 and All-Second Team in 2009 (Rondo has not made a First, Second or Third Team).
The Hornets improved by 20 games in his rookie season, and were a 56-win team by his third year in the league.
You think Rondo is a terrific defender? (OK, he is.) Sure, he led the league in steals last year, but Paul has led the NBA in steals in three of his five seasons in the league.
Chris Paul can do almost everything Rondo does well as well as Rondo (Paul has a higher rebound and steals per game average). He might not be the athlete Rondo is, but Rondo -- though he's getting better -- will never have the pure point guard instinct that in many ways define Paul. The ability to make other players better is something that's hard to prove, but Paul has done that with guys in New Orleans (see: West, David and Stojakovic, Peja). Paul to Boston would be seamless -- Ray Allen, Pierce and Garnett would only benefit from having a natural point guard.
And Rondo's weakness -- shooting -- is another Paul strength.
Career 3-point shooting: Rondo 24.4 percent, Paul 35.3 percent.
Career free-throw shooting: Rondo 63.0 percent, Paul 84.4 percent.
Put it another way: Kobe Bryant isn't playing 10 feet off of Chris Paul in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
So Paul is a better shooter, better passer (Don't believe me? There are three players in NBA history with a career assist per game average of 10.0 or higher. Magic Johnson, John Stockton and Chris Paul.) and (at worst) 95 percent the defender Rondo is. While we cross our fingers and hope that it all works out and Rondo becomes an MVP-type of player Paul is already there. He's a no-doubt future Hall of Famer at age 25. He's Isiah Thomas with a better jump shot. He's the kind of player that a franchise could build around for the next decade without a worry.
Oh, and Paul and Rondo are basically the same age (Paul is 10 months older). Why is it that Rondo is the only one that will definitely improve?
So what's the catch? Why would anyone want to keep Rondo and let Paul get away?
Well, money for one. Paul is owed about $34 million over the next two seasons, and you'd have to assume that a long-term max deal is going to be a must if he's going to come to your city. Rondo is (in today's NBA) a steal at $11 mil a year over the next five seasons. If he had waited until after the season to sign you'd have to think he would be a max guy.
(We all understand that a straight swap doesn't work in the salary cap world. Bill Simmons floated out a Rondo/Rasheed Wallace's contract/Kendrick Perkins for Paul and Emeka Okafor. The salaries work in that deal, but since Rondo is a base-year compensation player a third team would have to enter to make the trade work.)
Also you have to be a little worried that Paul -- again all of 25 -- is already bitching his way out of town. The "Let me go because I need to play for a winner" card should be reserved for those in Act III of their careers, with KG in 2008 as the perfect example. Chris Paul -- entering his prime and just a couple of seasons removed from 56 wins and a two seed in a ultra-competitive Western Conference -- doesn't qualify. He should keep his head down and work to get the Hornets back to where they were. But he sees what's going on in Miami and he feels like he wants in on the fun. If this mythical trade to Boston did happen what would happen once the Big Three left? Think Paul would look around at Big Baby and Avery Bradley and think it might be time to demand another trade?
And don't forget the knee. Paul had surgery on his left knee in February (he tore the meniscus). All reports indicate that this isn't the kind of injury that will linger, but it at least warrants mentioning (as does the fact that Rondo has missed just 12 games in his career).
All that is fair. But I still make the deal in a flash if I'm Danny and I'm given the chance. The opportunity to add an MVP kind of player at age 25-- someone who can average a 24-12 with three steals a game-- never happens. If that shows up on the table you have to grab it. This is kind of deal that the 1987 Celtics never got to make.
And let's also be fair about Rondo. We think he might be fine as a solo act, we suspect that he'll still be Rondo after the Big Three exit, but we don't actually know. Down deep isn't there a fear that KG/PP/Ray are masking some weaknesses in Rondo's game? That he needs them, or at least needs top players around him? That he isn't a true option one guy? Well, that isn't a worry with Paul. Winning 56 games with David West as the next best player removes any doubt that you can compete for a title with Chris Paul as the alpha dog.
It comes down to this: Do you want the game-changing point guard with one significant weakness in his game or the once in a generation point guard with no weakness in his game?
Not a tough call.
And that's why I'd say "yes" if I was Danny and the phone rang.
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