FORT MYERS, Fla. – It might be for a week into the season, two weeks, or longer. But we do now have a pretty good idea that the Red Sox will be without the player they knew they needed -- David Ortiz – when April 1 rolls around.
When healthy, Ortiz is a difference-maker. At the time of his Achilles injury last July, he was third in the majors in OPS, and after the July 16 incident the Red Sox went 23-49.
So – whether it’s for the short-term, long-term or somewhere down the road – who among the Red Sox can pick up the slack? Who can be a power-hitting centerpiece?
Three candidates – Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks, and Jacoby Ellsbury – all present intriguing possibilities when it comes to uncovering what can be one of baseball’s most elusive entities.
HIS BIG CHANCE
It’s hard to imagine that Napoli hasn’t found himself a team’s primary power threat. This is a guy, after all, that is fifth among active players (with a minimum of 2,000 plate appearances) in home runs per plate appearance (18.2). Better than Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, Mark Teixeira, Josh Hamilton and Ortiz.
But, unless you count the minor leagues, he hasn’t been that player.
“Not really,” Napoli said when asked if he had ever been the focal point of a teams power production. “I’ve always been in the five- or six-hole. But I’m not going to change anything I do. I’m going to go up there and see a lot of pitches. I know when to be aggressive. I’ve always wanted to be THE guy in a lineup. I’m looking forward to it.
“If you’re a player who doesn’t want that, you probably shouldn’t be playing. I’m always up for it. I thrive on wanting to do well and helping my team win in whatever way I can.”
Somewhat surprisingly, Napoli has only hit cleanup – the spot he figures to occupy with the Red Sox – in 20 of his 727 major league regular season games. He also has just two plate appearances hitting third.
The 31-year-old’s most occupied lineup position has been eighth (256 games), followed by seventh (167) and sixth (150). He has hit fifth in 56 contests.
For what it’s worth, no No. 8 hitter, since 2006, has hit more home runs than the 52 Napoli has put up.
Now, however, he has found himself in the middle of the action, especially without the services of Ortiz.
“I think everyone together has to pick up the slack,” Napoli said. “You can’t have just one guy going out there and be like, ‘I’m going to be the guy, and I’m going to take care of everything.’ If you get guys to come in, pick up the slack. …. To me, it’s playing team baseball. Getting guys over when you have to. Getting guys in from third when you have to. Not having him in the lineup, you’re losing a lot of power, a great hitter, a clutch hitter. So everyone together has to pick up the slack and do it together.”
LOOKING FOR THE NEXT LEVEL
If you look at the minor league totals as a whole, the fact Middlebrooks hit one home run per 32.8 plate appearances won’t blow you away. But this is a what have you done for me lately business, and the Red Sox third baseman has left quite an impression over the past 12 months.
He hit nine home runs in 100 plate appearances at Triple-A Pawtucket last season before being called up to Boston, where the then-rookie launched 15 in 286 plate appearances.
The point is, the third baseman has the rarest kind of potential – the ability to reside in the middle of a batting order.
“Absolutely,” said Middlebrooks when asked if relished the chance to be a central figure in the Red Sox’ power production. “I’m not going up there trying to hit home runs. But I feel if I hit a ball hard, it’s got a chance to leave.
“I’m sticking with what I do. I like to say I’m a power guy. With me, when I stay disciplined and within my approach, I’m fine and I’m swinging what I want to swing at. When I’m locked in, I don’t miss it. It’s just a matter of feeling disciplined for me.”
Middlebrooks’ power stroke has started to re-emerge of late, launching a ball to the right field warning track that was knocked down by a fierce JetBlue Field wind late last week, before clearing the Roger Dean Stadium left field fence Monday. He now has two spring training homers, having also hit one in the Red Sox’ exhibition game against Puerto Rico.
The power progression won’t be a piece of cake, which Middlebrooks is well aware of. Pitchers promise to approach him differently this time around. And Fenway Park’s dimensions aren’t exactly tailored for the righty hitter’s left-center and right-center power stroke.
“I think I’m a step ahead of where I was last year,” he said. “I feel like I’ve learned a lot. I feel more comfortable with the pitchers’ sequences to me. And I know a lot of the guys now, what they’ve got, movement and those things.
“We have a lot of guys, we’ll be fine. And I’m pretty confident David is going to be there. If he’s not there for Opening Day, I don’t think it will be long after.”
THE WILD CARD
Since 2000, only two Red Sox players besides Manny Ramirez and Ortiz – Jason Bay and Carl Everett – have hit as many homers the 32 totaled by Jacoby Ellsbury in 2011.
Yet, while Ellsbury managed to hit a home run in every 20.6 plate appearances in ’11, the rest of his career has totaled one homer for every 153 times to the plate.
So, which is it? That’s what the Red Sox are dying to find out.
“We’re trying to get in his mind thinking that he’s more of a power-hitter, Being aggressive. And that’s something we’ve been trying to stress with him, and he’s been stressing it to himself,” said Red Sox hitting coach Greg Colbrunn. “That drive-the-ball mentality instead of just getting on base.
“You watch him in BP and the way the ball come off his bat, the explosiveness off his bat, and you’re like, ‘Wow!’ He’s something special. A few years ago it came out, and hopefully we can get back to that.”
Ellsbury has yet to hit a home run this spring, going 5-for-25 (.200) with one double and four walks. It should be noted that it was two springs ago that Ellsbury truly started to suggestion there were some more home runs in his bat, hitting three in the ’11 spring training.
It’s a power stroke that the Red Sox aren’t about to discourage just because Ellsbury is in the leadoff spot. Not with the team’s need for punch, and the player’s potential to supply it.
“I think as long as he’s feeling 100 percent healthy, like he is now, the sky is the limit with his type of ability,” Colbrunn explained. “He knows how to do it, obviously. He has to trust that type of mentality. There’s an electricity coming off his bat. He would hit those line-drives, and they just kept on going.”
ROB BRADFORD
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