In the myriad Red Sox press conferences this offseason, the question has been thrown Ben Cherington's way on almost every occasion.
"Can you contend for a playoff spot in 2013?"
The answer at the general managers meetings revolved around the notion that the Sox have to stop talking and start doing. It has been three straight seasons, after all, that the team has failed to reach the postseason.
Wednesday's answer -- after announcing Ryan Dempster, one of eight free agents who has agreed to terms with the Red Sox -- Cherington offered more specific reasons for hope.
"That's realistic," the Sox' general manager said. "I mean that's what we're always trying to do in Boston and we knew that. We knew coming off the year we have a lot of work to do. We're still working, and we'll keep working into spring training and beyond. I think we're in a good position. We've been able to improve the team in different areas, build depth. We're still trying to find additional ways to improve the team, and we've done that while keeping our young talent, which is a good thing in terms of depth for 2013 and in other ways, too. I'm happy with the direction the offseason has gone, but certainly not satisfied where we are."
But, despite Cherington's optimism, the public is having a hard time stomaching it.
Even with a payroll that is believed to be currently hovering around $169 million, and a group of free agents who will be paid a combined $70 million for 2013, there is a perception that the Red Sox are simply a collection of stopgaps who can't possibly compete with the star-laden rosters in Anaheim and New York.
Where is all the program-cover talent? How can you win without the kind of assembly of superstars around which baseball teams love to build marketing campaigns? Where has 'The Best Team Ever' gone?
There are 34 players slated to carry contracts of an annual average salary of greater than $16.5 million in 2013, and none of them play for the Red Sox. Six are employed for the Dodgers, while the Yankees, Angels and Phillies have four apiece. The closest the Sox come is their highest-paid player, John Lackey, who comes in at $16.5 million but is expected to simply hold down the middle of the rotation and isn't expected represent the Red Sox in the MLB Fan Cave any time soon.
Don't think for a minute, however, there aren't possible marquee players on this roster. You don't have one of the highest payrolls in baseball without at least some star potential. Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury. Jon Lester. Clay Buchholz. Shane Victorino. Mike Napoli. They have all been named All-Stars in at least one of the past three seasons.
But none of the building blocks (with maybe the exception of Pedroia) necessarily can be designated as a sure-thing. And when it comes to selling teams, those buying in want their sure things.
So what should we make of this collection? Do the Red Sox need one of the rich 34? Right now, they don't think so. There is a belief that taking the approach of spreading the franchise's substantial wealth throughout the roster might be more productive right now than entering the sort of arenas where the Angels are treading once again with the signing of Josh Hamilton.
Understand this: In 2013, the Red Sox are slated to have the fourth-most players (7) of any team in baseball who will average at least what Stephen Drew will be pulling down ($9.5 million). Only the Dodgers (10), Yankees (10) and Phillies (8) have more players receiving such salaries. So, in other words, a team like the Angels is banking heavily on a few rather than a bunch, with three of their five players who will make as much as Drew also clearing the bar set by Lackey.
We all comprehend that the Red Sox are putting the majority of their chips on having their top prospects perform. But it should be understood that while the waiting continues for the likes of Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr., there has been a significant bet placed on this spread-it-around strategy.
In '12, the Red Sox were average or below average at every position, with the exception of designated hitter and second base. Their OPS rankings were as follows: First base, 13th; Second base, 3rd; Shortstop, 24th; Third base, 21st; Catcher, 15th; Left field, 17th; Center field, 27th; Right field, 19th.
The idea is to cover all the holes, and not just necessarily using a Hamilton to jump the ranking up at one spot while potentially sacrificing across-the-board production.
Look at the free agents they've agreed to terms with, for instance. Mike Napoli's average OPS for the past three seasons is .875, which would have ranked fifth among first basemen last season. Drew's three-year average OPS is .746, good enough for sixth for '12 shortstops. Victorino? He is at .766, which was 16th-best among right fielders a year ago. And, to nobody's surprise, Ortiz' .950 three-year OPS average would have been tops at his position.
Then there is David Ross, whose three-year average of throwing out 35 percent of his runners would have been fourth-best among catchers in '13. And Dempster's average of 197 innings and 4.04 ERA over the past three seasons would rank him just below Lester in terms of consistency on the Red Sox' staff.
The problem with such a strategy is there are seemingly fewer guarantees (along with potentially less initial fan interest). The $20 million-a-year players are usually paid such a rate because there is some certainty a team knows what they're going to get. When looking at last year's Red Sox team, for instance, one of the biggest differences between Bobby Valentine's team and the Yankees was that for the majority of the season, nine of the top 10 paid New Yorkers produced at near the level they were being paid to perform at. The Sox? Whether due to injuries or under-performance, it was hard to make a case for any of the top 10 (with Pedroia not entering into the team's top earners at that point).
So while the Red Sox haven't landed any offseason superstars as of yet, there is a belief at 4 Yawkey Way that what they've done can right the ship until the next wave arrives. It is, however, an approach that doesn't necessarily play to the fan base's personality.
In these parts, the likes of Josh Hamilton is a fairly easy sell. Patience? That isn't exactly flying off the shelves when it comes to this team these days.
ROB BRADFORD
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