After 26 games last season it was an identical 11-15 record.
On May 6, 2011, they were also four games under .500 (14-18).
Same records, sure. But same boat?
"It's never the same. It will never be the same. No one season will be the same," admitted Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez after his team's later loss, an 8-2 defeat at the hands of the Orioles Saturday afternoon.
"The good news is that we got out of that. If we play the same kind of baseball from this point on as we did from this point on last year, and we have a better September, we'll be in a good place."
But do the Red Sox have the same kind of tools to execute the kind of come comeback they executed a year ago? It was one which saw them go from five games under .500 on the last day of April to five games over .500 (and just one game out of first-place) by the final day of May.
Here is what has to happen …
1. STARTERS NEED TO SHINE
Of all the statistics comparing last year's start to this one, the one separator is starting pithing. In April, 2011, the Red Sox starters were 13th in the majors in ERA (3.83), while this year's edition has totaled a 5.46 mark (27th).
No one starting pitcher has gotten carry-the-team-kind-of-hot yet, with Josh Beckett possessing the staff's best ERA (4.45), which is only good for 32nd among starting pitchers in the Americna League.
When the Red Sox made their move in May of last season, Beckett totaled a 1.00 ERA in six starts, while Clay Buchholz (2.08, 6 starts), Tim Wakefield (3.51, 4 starts) and Alfredo Aceves (3.91, 3 starts), all proved reliable.
Even Jon Lester, who struggled with inconsistency (and a 5.50 ERA in May, 2011), went 4-1 during the Red Sox' resurgence, coming up with a few gems on the way to a stellar June (2.31 ERA).
"I think the difference was last year we got to .500 and never looked back. We got to .500 a few days ago and have scuffled since," said Sox starter Daniel Bard. "But we dug ourselves out of it once. It all it takes is a hot streaks. If we were playing well and losing games, it would be one thing, but we know we just have to pitch well and consistent and we have the potential to be really good. It's just a matter of doing it."
2. THE OPPOSITION NEEDS TO COME DOWN TO EARTH
This is probably the trickiest of the differences between last year and this one. The Red Sox competition with the division appears to be better.
Every single team in the American League East is over .500, while the Red Sox remain seven games in back of first-place Tampa Bay. When they were in this predicament after 26 games last season, just the first-place Yankees and second-place Rays were above .500, and the Sox were five games back.
More importantly, however, is that this group of AL East teams have already discovered what the Red Sox are still trying to latch on to -- consistent starting pitching.
Three of the four top American League starting staffs are in the in the AL East, and 14 of the top 30 AL starters reside in the division. Again, none of those individual starters are within the Sox' organization.
"When you have a team that's playing good like [the Orioles] are, you better bring your 'A' game," said Sox designated hitter David Ortiz. "They're not wasting [stuff] right now. They're making plays. Their pitching is pitching well. They are hitting. …This is a tough division right here. This is a tough division. You have to play well, no matter who you play against. You have to play good."
3. SOME HITTERS NEED TO GET HOT UNTIL THE CAVALRY ARRIVES
There is no question taking out Kevin Youkilis, Carl Crawford and Jacoby Ellsbury has already started to put someone of a dent in the consistent production of the Sox' bats. On the current homestand, the Sox are 8-for-49 (.163) with runners in scoring position.
Sure, the Red Sox have hit. They are fourth in the majors in batting average (.271), eighth in home runs (29), fourth in OPS (.782) and sixth in pitches per plate appearance (3.90). Almost all a step up from their initial struggles a year ago when they were hitting .243 (19th), with 22 home runs (15th) while carrying an OPS of 7.11 (15th). (They were taking a few more pitches, seeing 3.97 per plate appearance).
But the point is that last year, what complemented the starters so well in May was a lineup full of hitters who found their groove at just the right time. From May 1-31, 2011, seven members of the starting lineup possessed an OPS of over .800.
And while the Red Sox have some hitters to carry off such a run on their current roster, there is a reason the three aforementioned players (Crawford, Ellsbury, Youkilis) have carved themselves out their reputations -- they regularly go on the kind of streaks that help carry teams.
Ryan Sweeney, who has the second-highest OPS of any Red Sox hitter, has never averaged an OPS of better than .800 for a single month in his career. (The good news is that Cody Ross' best career month is May, when he has averaged a .941 OPS.)
"It is," responded Adrian Gonzalez when asked if it was surprising the Red Sox were in the exact position they found themselves in at similar points last season. "All we have to do is start tomorrow and take tomorrow as Day One."
ROB BRADFORD
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