It was one of the final days of April 2007, and Jonathan Papelbon had, as was written at the time, "dug himself in for the long haul."
Just a month before, Papelbon had officially put starting in the rear-view mirror -- along with the potential earning power that goes with it -- in favor of living the sometimes combustible life of a closer.
It would be five years before free agency would come calling, but that didn't faze Papelbon. He had all the confidence in the world that as good as it was for the then-26-year-old, diligence and determination were going to keep things status quo right up until the ultimate payday came calling.
"I'm here to get my fair share of money," he said during the first month of what would be the Red Sox' 2007 championship season. "My main priority is to stay healthy and be able to make money, not to go out and try and hurry up and win a championship this year (at the risk of injury). It's not like I'm hurrying up and going back to the closer's role because we have a good team this year and I'm going to blow (my arm) out and try and win as many games as we can (at any cost). No, it's not going to happen.
"I've got a lot of money to be made in this game, whether it's with Boston or not. My goal is to make sure I'm ready to play every day and to make money, and you can't make money if you're sitting on the bench. That's the way I look at it."
The plan has seemingly worked out.
As of 12:01 a.m. Thursday, Papelbon officially became a free agent, and he has entered these waters riding on more or less the same wave he was coasting on five years before. He is healthy, productive, and has even triumphed financially despite not signing a single multi-year deal. (Grady Sizemore, who has roughly the same service time as the closer, inked a six-year, $23.45 million prior to the 2006 season -- the largest deal ever signed at the time by a player with less than two years of big league service. During that same span Papelbon has made $29.135 million.)
But now what? Papelbon will get paid, but the questions are how much, and by whom?
This is what we know as free agency begins:
- The Red Sox are seemingly ready to see how the market develops for Papelbon before diving head-first into an effort to re-up their closer, having not gone full bore during their exclusive negotiating period with the reliever.
- Papelbon is at least in the conversation when identifying the most coveted reliever on the free agent market. Other contenders for the top spot -- weighing in age and performance -- are Ryan Madson, Francisco Rodriguez and Heath Bell.
- Teams that would appear to need closing help (depending on the loss of their free agents in some cases) include the Red Sox, Philadelphia, San Diego, the Mets, Toronto, Minnesota and Baltimore. Other possibilities include the Rangers, the Angels (Jordan Walden had 10 blown saves), Washington (if Drew Storen is traded), Dodgers, Reds and Marlins (if Leo Nunez' legal issues don't get ironed out).
- Papelbon will not be setting anybody up, which he reiterated when talking to WEEI.com in August. "Cinco don't set-up," the closer said.
- The Red Sox offered Mariano Rivera a deal last offseason that was worth $15 million per season, with separate sources offering conflicting information if it was for two or three years. The offer came about, according to a source, after Rivera's representatives initiated discussions without the Sox.
This is what it all means as free agency begins:
- As Red Sox GM Ben Cherington suggested once again Wednesday, any expectation that after making it this far Papelbon wasn't going to test free agency would be unrealistic. "I wouldn't expect any closure on any of those guys any time soon," said Cherington of Papelbon and the Red Sox' other big-name free agent, David Ortiz.
- While the numbers when comparing Papelbon's '11 season to Madson, Rodriguez and Bell are similar, the Sox closer can enter into free agency with some advantages. He has managed to put up his numbers over the past six seasons in the pressure-cooker that is Boston without a hint of changing roles. (No pitcher in Red Sox history has closed for longer than Papelbon.)
- The multiple landing spots are limited somewhat by market sizes and approach toward the closing role. The idea that a team can uncover an inexpensive option to close out games, as was the case with St. Louis' discovery of Jason Motte, might catch on. Yet, while the days of four- and five-year contracts for closers might be history, there still figure to be plenty of organizations that value end-of-game certainty.
- If Cinco don't set-up, that means Cinco probably won't have the Yankees as an option.
- The Red Sox didn't have any sort of illusions regarding Rivera turning his back on the Yankees' two-year, $30 million offer last offseason. But by offering the future Hall-of-Famer a deal, the Sox were also ready to commit to Rivera. It begs the question: If such an investment was potentially going to be made to the 41-year-old, then why not Papelbon?
Here are some interesting numbers when comparing the pair:
From 1996-2001, Rivera's first six full seasons, he pitched in 384 games, totaled a 2.16 ERA, struck out 427, had a 3.39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, limited opposing batters to a .205 batting average, and claimed 215 saves in 248 opportunities.
Papelbon numbers in his first six seasons a closer: 379 games, 475 strikeouts, 4.85 K/BB, .199 batting average against, 219 saves in 247 opportunities.
In the last six seasons Rivera's numbers are also extremely similar to those of Papelbon: 385 games, 1.98 ERA, 383 strikeouts, 6.38 K/BB, .206 batting average against, 224 saves in 244 opportunities.
And the numbers in '11? Again, almost identical. They don't have nearly the same careers, and are 10 years apart in age. But, for the life of a closer's contract, Papelbon and Rivera, for all intent and purposes, are the same level of pitcher.
Cases to be made. Opportunities to be had.
Papelbon is a free agent, no surprise there. What happens now, however, is anybody's guess.
ROB BRADFORD
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Cleveland Indians hottest team in baseball, yet remain last in attendance May 19, 2013 By AJ Kaufman 6 Comments There’s a scene in Major League where Bob Uecker, portraying the radio voice of the Indians, bemoans, “In case you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t, the Indians have managed to win a few here and there, and are threatening to climb out of the cellar.” Well, that was nearly 25 years ago and fictional, but today’s reality is that Cleveland has won 17 of its last 21, and currently tops the AL Central with a mark of 25-17. No one in the majors is better than the Indians in the past month (20-7). That’s great news. The bad news, however, is the Tribe somehow remain in the MLB cellar when it comes to attendance. How can this be? The fact that I wrote on this same topic almost to the day last year – when only Tampa Bay drew fewer fans than Cleveland - may be even more troubling. Though roughly 34,000 watched a walk-off win Friday night against Seattle, perfect weather and free caps weren’t enough to draw more than 36,000 Saturday and Sunday combined. What did the Indians do in those tilts? They nabbed another walk-off win on Saturday, then the Indians crushed the great Felix Hernandez Sunday behind Justin Masterson, arguably the AL’s best pitcher right now. Fun fact: The Indians have already faced eight Cy Young Award winners in 2013: Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jake Peavy, David Price, Justin Verlander and Hernandez. They have won seven out those eight matchups. Simply astounding. This offseason, the much-maligned Indians front office finally made a legitimate attempt to improve the team through free agency. I’m not talking an Ubaldo Jimenez-like trade, but rather smart acquisitions that brought veterans Mike Aviles, Michael Bourn, Jason Giambi, Scott Kazmir, Brett Myers, Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs and Nick Swisher to Cleveland. In addition to being a fantastic place to watch a game due to great egress and ingress, with extremely affordable tickets, the best promo lineup anywhere, Jacobs Field boasts overall, cooler, less muggy summer weather than most Midwestern locales. The team also lowered beer and hot dog prices to $4 and $3 respectively. What other professional stadium in any sport offers that? I have visited 28 of the 30 current Major League Baseball stadia, and few top The Jake when all angles are considered. I say that as a baseball fan, not an Indians fan. As for the putative “economic” angle, these are the same people who spend insane amounts of money to watch terrible football every fall and show up in decent numbers for putrid basketball in the winter. Irrespective of season length, those sports charge up to 10 times the price for a ticket, and the atmosphere isn’t half as fan-friendly as baseball. I understand fans’ lack of willingness to get on board to some degree. A decent recap of Cleveland’s decade of “rebuilding” can be read here and the team suffered a horrific collapse last August. However, in addition to all the benefits of attending games at Jacobs (now Progressive) Field, fans should also realize the team has potential and often exceeds preseason aspirations at any point without warning. Cleveland hosts the rival Detroit Tigers — heavy favorites to repeat as AL Central champs — Tuesday and Wednesday nights before hitting the road. The temperature should be pleasant at first pitch each evening so you’d expect The Jake to be full to watch the best hitter on the planet right now — but don’t count on it.
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