Spring training had barely begun, but Jonathan Papelbon had little doubt what path he would be taking in 2011.
“When the season is all said and done this year, I want to be the No. 1 guy coming out, no question," the Red Sox closer told WEEI.com regarding being compared to an impressive list of closers who have the potential to become free agents after '11.
Jonathan Papelbon wouldn't have said it if he didn't believe it. Now he has others buying in as well.
The buzz around Papelbon is starting to build, with his fifth save of the season -- accomplished by turning in a scoreless ninth inning in the Red Sox' 4-3 win over the Angels Friday night -- serving as the latest jumping off point.
Simply put, he is back to answering questions with authority.
Start with what Papelbon did Friday night, such as topping out at 96 mph despite pitching a third straight day. It was the first time in the closer's career that he had pitched three days in a row in the season's first month, but this was still midseason Papelbon. Even better, it was midseason Papelbon, three years ago.
There were just 12 pitches, nine of which were fastballs and all but one were strikes. Four batters, one strikeout, and few problems.
"I think it shows how hard he’s worked is what it shows," Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters after his team's win regarding Papelbon. "Sometimes you expect a guy to command but maybe drop off a little bit with stuff, but his stuff was phenomenal."
When looking for one statistic that suggests Papelbon just might be on his way to heading that class of relievers he talked about, try digesting this: No closer in baseball has a higher swing and miss percentage than the 34.5 percent possessed by Sox' hurler.
Friday Papelbon got two swings and misses -- one on a splitter, another on a game-ending 95 mph heater -- while freezing Angels hitters five times on called strikes. Hank Conger single aside, this was the security blanket many were skeptical the Red Sox would be possessing this season.
So, what's the difference this time around? What has allowed Papelbon to turn back the naysayers born from the scars of '10?
To this point, Papelbon fulfilled a promise. He has evolved.
The 30-year-old's strikeout rate is the highest it's been since '07, despite possessing a fastball that, according to the PitchFx tool, isn't any more impressive velocity-wise than it has been in the past few years. The 11.9 K's per nine innings is third among all closers.
But while the mph may just be holding steady, the reaction of the hitters isn't. Thanks to the presence of two legitimate pitchers -- a slider and splitter -- a well-located fastball from Papelbon is seemingly having a more dramatic affect on the opposition.
He is throwing his slider and splitter with almost the exact same frequency, which is a dramatic departure from '10 when Papelbon went to his split 13 percent more than the off-speed offering.
Against right-handed batters, for instance, Papelbon has been able to throw his fastball a full 14 percent less than he did two seasons ago, with the heater still being the same go-to pitch against lefties (who are hitting just .211 against the closer after managing a .255 clip in '10).
It is still early. In many ways last April was more impressive than this one, with Papelbon finishing the month with a 2.25 ERA, .171 opponents batting average and seven saves in as many chances. This time around he is 5-for-5 in save opportunities, carrying a 2.16 ERA and a .226 opponents batting average (which, by the way, is identical to what he finished at in '10).
But there is a different confidence in Papelbon thus far, one which had escaped the general Red Sox-following public for much of '10. Maybe it is as simple as commanding his pitches better, as the 11 strikeouts and just two walks might suggest. Or perhaps the change does center around the diversity of offerings.
Regardless, in some sense, an aura has returned, and Papelbon's opponents have taken notice.
"As far as consistency, I think Mariano Rivera's No. 1 on that list, but Pap has shown over the years that he's going to be every bit as good as him," Angels left fielder Vernon Wells told the Associated Press after his team's loss to the Sox. "When he comes into the game, you know you've got your work cut out for you."
ROB BRADFORD
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