On first glance, the pair would appear to go together like peanut butter and Spam. Two closers, one opportunity per win to record the final out, and a whole lot of money potentially at stake.
Here's the reality: Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon need each other … they have in the past, and will more than ever in the future.
The plan as we sit here is for Jenks — who will have signed a two-year, $12 million contract with the Red Sox after passing a physical — to join Daniel Bard in setting up Papelbon. It's not complicated: The former White Sox closer is now a set-up man for the other Sox.
It will be different. It was for Eric Gagne when he showed up with the Sox, and Billy Wagner openly pined for the adrenaline rush of the ninth inning upon entering his existence as one of Papelbon's set-up men. In 2010, Jenks pitched prior to the ninth inning just nine times out of 55 appearances. In '09 there were just seven pre-ninth-inning outings, and only four in '08.
But what both Papelbon and Jenks (who is four months younger than the Sox' closer) will come to realize is that their existence will benefit from one another's presence and success.
Here is what you should know about the partnership:
OFF THE FIELD
Because of age, and performance, Papelbon and Jenks have been linked together throughout virtually every contract negotiation for the past three seasons.
In their first years of arbitration eligibility, Jenks made $5.6 million while Papelbon came in at $6.25 million. The following year Jenks was at $7.5 million, while the Red Sox closer agreed to a record-setting $9.35 million deal They were on similar paths, with the then-White Sox closer being used as a comp each time Papelbon came up for a contract.
But then, this offseason, the two pitchers' paths separated, with Chicago choosing to non-tender Jenks, making him a free agent. The Red Sox, on the other hand, tendered Papelbon a contract, lining him up for a deal of around $11 million for the coming season.
So, where do they go from here?
The market for relievers this offseason has been robust, with three-year deals being handed out to such non-closers as Scott Downs, Matt Guerrier and Joaquin Benoit. But, for closers, things aren't exactly trending the same way.
Jenks, thought by some to be the second-best closer on the market behind Rafael Soriano, will make almost half of Papelbon. And some industry insiders think the likes of Soriano (or Papelbon if he was on the market) would be looking at around a max of $10 million per year.
But, what if …
Papelbon has a dominant year, heading into free agency having to go against San Diego's Heath Bell in the closing market. Unfortunately for the Sox closer, the Yankees don't figure to be in the mix with Mariano Rivera signed up for two more years, but with a standout campaign Papelbon has enough selling points to get the market pointed toward what it was when the likes of Joe Nathan sealed his deal.
And if Papelbon is to have above-average success, it could be in large part to the presence of Jenks (see below). The former White Sox reliever could then stake claim to the Red Sox' closing role in '12, with the Sox choosing to value Bard's presence in high-leverage spots throughout the seventh and eighth innings. With that scenario, Jenks could re-enter free agency with teams more likely to loosen their purse strings for end-of-game relievers.
Just a thought ...
ON THE FIELD
First, let's look at what the Jenks signing does to the dynamic of the Red Sox bullpen.
The group automatically becomes one of the hardest-throwing collection of relievers in the major leagues, an honor that went to Jenks' White Sox last season. The last three years, the Red Sox bullpen has averaged just more than 92 mph on its fastballs. Chicago relievers led all of the majors with fastballs averaging 94.7 mph, boasting three relief pitchers with fastballs averaging 95 mph or better.
Now, the Red Sox have the majors' hardest-throwing reliever (Daniel Bard, 97.9 mph/fastball), Jenks (95 mph), and Papelbon (94.9 mph). Newly acquired Matt Albers is no slouch, either, averaging 93 mph on his fastball in '10.
So, what does this mean? Well, it certainly doesn't guarantee automatic success. The White Sox relievers were 10th in the majors in ERA, although they were first in the American League in strikeouts. (The Red Sox bullpen had a real problem putting hitters away, ranking eighth-to-last in punch-outs in the majors.)
Another example that heat doesn't mean everything is the bullpen of the 2007 World Series champion Red Sox, who had the second-best ERA in the majors while notching the fourth-fewest strikeouts.
Where Jenks comes into the equation in terms of potentially making Papelbon more effective is the following:
— There is no denying that both Bard and Jenks are flat-out fastball pitchers. And much has previously been made about allowing for a change of pace before facing the heat of Papelbon. But with a relentless dose of velocity leading up to the ninth, it might be Papelbon who will be supplying the alteration. Hitters managed just a .190 average against the closer's splitter and a .171 average vs. a much-improved slider, both signs that there is more to the man.
Make no mistake about it, Papelbon still has a good-enough fastball to call it his go-to pitch. Hitters hit under .200 against the pitch, on which he hit 95 mph 352 times on of his 830 fastballs. But he is not Bard (95 mph or better on 793 of his 815 heaters) or Jenks (who threw 97 mph 47 times in '10, compared to Papelbon's 23 97-or-better heaters). But the point is that the Red Sox closer now has the capability to be more than just a hard thrower, and the presence of Jenks and Bard might make that transition a bit more seamless.
— It will prevent Papelbon from pitching outside the ninth inning. He had to come in prior to the ninth just five times in '10 (six fewer than the year before), but any chance to keep the number dwindling is beneficial for both the closer and the team.
— Papelbon won't be forced to pitch on back-to-back days when it might not be in his best interest. In '07 he went on zero days rest eight times. Last season it was 16 games (in which he had impressive 2.12 ERA with no home runs). With one and two days rest, Papelbon ran into trouble, totaling a 5.40 and 7.36 ERA, respectively. Bottom line: Red Sox manager Terry Francona will be able to pick his spots more freely with the presence of another legitimate late-inning reliever.
— For a Sox bullpen that walked far too many hitters, Jenks is a fairly reliable strike-thrower. He has never walked more than 18 in any of his last four seasons. That, again, will limit the chances of Papelbon having to be extended beyond his preferred limits.
It might just work, after all.
ROB BRADFORD
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