There have been few surprises in Jonathan Papelbon's climb up the financial ladder. The closer promised to set the bar, delivered, and did all of it while still wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Now comes the uncertainty.

Papelbon's latest step toward free agency (which awaits following the 2011 season) came Tuesday when he and his agents, Sam and Seth Levinson, agreed to a one-year deal with the Red Sox that will pay him a base salary of $9.35 million with bonuses that include an extra $50,000 if he finishes 60 games (he finished 59 in '09).

Just as was the case last offseason, when Papelbon inked the wealthiest deal for any first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher at $6.25 million, Tuesday's agreement was sealed just moments prior to the noon deadline for submitting arbitration figures. The two sides ended up handing over the numbers they wished to present if a hearing had taken place, with the Red Sox coming in at $8.45 million and Papelbon submitting a figure of $10.25 million.

Again, not a lot of shockers.

Papelbon has earned his keep throughout his young career, and that's why he surpassed any other second-year, arbitration-eligible reliever, blowing past Eric Gagne's previous mark of an $8 million salary as a fourth-year player. (That salary, it is worth noting, was part of a two-year, $19 million deal that Gagne signed following the 2004 season.) The Red Sox have acknowledged Papelbon's accomplishments with both of the 29-year-old's last two contracts.

But with the impending pen to paper, life for Papelbon and the Red Sox has officially begun to change. There is now just one offseason standing between the reliever and his shot at free agency, which changes the game from here on out.

Papelbon would like to have one of those multiyear contracts that teammates Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester signed -- with the Sox buying out a portion of their free agent years -- but it would have to come at the right price. At this moment, the Red Sox aren't willing to pay that price. The team hasn't shown a desire to sign Papelbon to the kind of contract given out to the aforementioned Sox' building blocks, and the pitcher has dug into the reality that one more year of arbitration and then the uncertain world of free agency are a likely course.

A very real scenario could result in Papelbon turning in a similar 2010 season to his first four full big-league campaigns, getting a one-year contract that transcends Francisco Rodriguez' record-setting deal for a third-year, arbitration-eligible pitcher ($10 million), and then spending one final season in a Red Sox uniform. That assumes, of course, that there is no trade prior to that free agent filing.

Daniel Bard (he is good) or no Daniel Bard (he is young), the likelihood of Papelbon getting the kind of contract that would keep him in Boston wouldn't appear to be in the offing from the Sox.

Papelbon is among the best closers in the game. The numbers bear it out. There might be concerns over the absence of his split, decrease in swings and misses, or loss of velocity with less rest, but the bottom line is that he has been one of the game's most reliable relievers in one of the game's most strenuous environments. And because of it, some team will ante up. (Just as a point of reference, Yankees closer Mariano Rivera's deal is up after the '10 season.)

The five-year deals of Billy Wagner and B.J. Ryan might be a thing of the past for closers, but there are teams in the baseball galaxy that will head into the kind of four-year commitment at which the Red Sox would seem likely to balk (especially if Bard does stay on the right track).

So in the here and the now, the Red Sox find themselves with one motivated closer with one uncertain future.