Why Papelbon might be making history again

By the time you read this, a deal could have been struck. Jonathan Papelbon very well might have already agreed to a contract that allows him to avoid arbitration for a second straight year.

But if that hasn't happened yet ... well, things could get interesting.

The Red Sox and Papelbon have until noon Tuesday to come to an agreement on a contract before salary arbitration figures have to be exchanged. Last year, it never got to that point, with the two parties agreeing to a one-year, $6.25 million deal literally minutes before having to present their respective numbers.

Papelbon said he wanted to set the bar, and he did, breaking a record for the highest figure given to a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher.

This year, the Sox closer might be on the verge of history once again, this time due to an altogether different dynamic. Papelbon’s situation could be leading him to something no Red Sox player has experienced since Theo Epstein took over as general manager following the 2002 season — an actual arbitration hearing.

The closest the Sox have come to going head-to-head with a player and his agent in a hearing was back in 2007, when they settled with outfielder Wily Mo Pena just before entering the room where the proceedings were to take place. Other than that, there’s been nothing within shouting distance of a hearing.

But if nothing can be settled before noon on Tuesday and salary figures are submitted, there will be a very good chance we could see one of the more intriguing arbitration hearings baseball has seen in quite some time.

THE MARKET ISN’T PARTING THE CLOUDS

The 29-year-old has seen the contracts given to Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jon Lester, and he wouldn’t mind being the next block in the Red Sox’ foundation. He certainly is open to that kind of multiyear deal, despite his declarations that he has absolutely no problem throwing caution to the wind and climbing the salary ladder via one-year deals. The problem for Papelbon is that Red Sox aren’t thinking along the same lines as they were with the previous three arbitration-eligible cornerstones.

Now, the closer isn’t alone in his willingness to go from year to year in regard to his contractual situation. The Red Sox are more than willing to go the same route as well.

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While Papelbon has continued his quest to bring the salary structure for closers more in line with that of starters — having done his part with the deal of a year ago — the rest of the market hasn’t cooperated, a notion that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Red Sox.

When the offseason’s biggest signing for a closer is Jose Valverde’s two-year, $14 million deal, the needle isn’t exactly being moved.

And while Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez did sign a three-year, $37.5 million deal prior to last season that could realistically vest into a four-year deal that would pay him $17.5 million in that final season, closers are still waiting for that kind of transcendent contract for which they thought Mariano Rivera’s three-year, $45 million deal was setting the stage. Nothing (other than Rodriguez’ deal, or perhaps Joe Nathan’s four-year, $47 million agreement) has come close.

When it comes to making a case for Papelbon ascending into the next level of history-making money-making, Rodriguez’ case might be his best ally. And we’re not talking about the deal he signed with the Mets prior to the 2009 season, but rather his final go-round with arbitration the offseason before.

Rodriguez lost his final arbitration case, getting awarded the $10 million figure presented by the Angels instead of the $12.5 million he had been asking for.

At that point in time, Rodriguez had totaled 146 saves in 173 opportunities (an 85 percent save success rate) over his five big league seasons. Through four years, Papelbon has notched 151 saves in 169 chances, good for an 89 percent success rate. It was determined that the then-Angels closer was worth somewhere between $10 million and $11.5 million, which might be where Papelbon is looking to land for the coming season.

Papelbon also will be pointing to the present as well as the past, having come off a season in which he converted 38 of 41 save chances while compiling a 1.85 ERA and .213 batting average against. And while there were