"What next level is there? That's the thing that frustrates me. People don't consider me an ace or don't consider me a front-line starter. Well, when there are two other pitchers in all of baseball who (won at least 15 games four straight seasons), what am I? That's my argument to it. What extra level is there to it? Am I supposed to win 25 games every year? It's not possible."
-- Jon Lester, Feb. 9
Troubling and borderline delusional. Will these guys ever learn?
That was my first, second and 86th reaction when reading Jon Lester's comments in Rob Bradford's column last week.
I could almost live with Lester whining about perceived unfair expectations if he were coming off the kind of year we had been accustomed to from him before 2012. I write "almost" because, two years ago, it was absolutely reasonable to believe a Cy Young or two was a possibility in Lester's future.
This was, after all, a guy coming off of a 19-9, 3.25 ERA season with an AL-best 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings in 2010. And that was after a combined 31-14 with a 3.31 ERA the two years before. With that track record and at age 26, just starting his prime years, why would anyone think Lester wasn't going to make that jump to stardom and join Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez as the pitchers of their generation?
Well, it hasn't happened. At least not yet. Lester was very good -- but again short of greatness -- for most of the 2011 season. But he was one of the two or three key contributors to the epic collapse (5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP in his final six starts) and one of the two or three key subjects of Bob Hohler's takedown of the 2011 Red Sox.
And his 2012 season was by far the worst of his career, shockingly mediocre by the standards of an average pitcher, a titanic failure when placed next to rest of Lester's career. No one thinks Lester should win 25 games every year, as he suggests, but reaching double digits is a fair ask. Nine wins, 14 losses in 2012.
OK, tough luck can happen. Nolan Ryan was 8-16 and led the National League in ERA in 1987 (at age 40). But Lester wasn't the victim of lousy run support, or those three or four bad breaks that can turn 15-8 into 9-14. Nope, he stunk. His ERA was 4.82, 28th in the American League. He had career worsts in WHIP, hits per nine innings and home runs per nine innings, and for the third consecutive season his strikeouts per nine innings dropped.
All that leads me to this: After that miserable season, is anyone running around screaming about Jon Lester taking it to the next level anymore? What exactly is he so frustrated about? There isn't a Red Sox fan that wouldn't sign for 16-6, 3.40 from Lester in 2013. Not a one -- the idea of 22-6, 2.40 is at the very least put to the side until Lester demonstrates the ability to return to what he was. Is the expectation of very good but not great agreeable to Lester, or does that also fall in the frustrating category?
Lester tells Bradford that "people don't consider me an ace," which is the correct temperature reading of the fans and it should be. Lester has never had what would be considered a terrific season, has never been considered one of the three or four best pitchers in baseball, has never been better than 10th in WHIP in any season of his career. Justin Verlander is an ace. Matt Cain is an ace. Clayton Kershaw is an ace. Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, David Price, I'll even give you CC Sabathia. Lester's peak seasons do not match the peak seasons of these pitchers, and it's not even close. And nowhere on the resume of these guys are 9-14, 4.82. Lester wonders why folks don't view him as an ace, a front-line starting pitcher. Because on Feb. 11, 2013, he simply isn't one.
Lester should know this, and maybe he does. Could be he's going to have the best season of his career in 2013 with John Farrell, figure it all out and become the ace he thinks we should think he is already. What a player says in February doesn't have a lot of bearing on how he'll perform that season. But you and I watched Lester last year, right? We can agree he was awful. If Lester would just acknowledge that and pledge to right the wrongs, it would go a long way, I think. That's why Josh Beckett got a pass for so long -- he was the very first person to say he was terrible when he was terrible. Turns out this was one of those lessons from Beckett that failed to get through to Lester.
Said Lester: "You look at last year, how many quality starts did I have? [He had 17.] How many games did I lose when I gave up three runs or less? I can't control the outcome of the game. I can only control being healthy every five days and going out there and pitching. That's what I consider an ace."
I'd file that under Things Never Said By Roy Halladay. Instead of Lester just confirming the obvious -- last year was the worst by far of his career -- and promising every effort to have the best season of his career in 2013, we get another pity party, another buffet of excuses, more tossing under the bus. Quality starts? Well, how about the 13 starts with at least four runs allowed? Couldn't control that? How about 11 runs in four innings against the Blue Jays on July 22, or seven runs in two innings vs. the Rangers on April 17? Was that someone else's fault?
It seems that Lester is offended by the possibility that some might expect him to be more than he has been. Again, no one has ever suggested Jon Lester should win 25 games. But there was an "extra level" that many if not most anticipated Lester would reach, and for Lester not to think that level exists is telling at best and damning at worst.
Put it another way: Don't ever expect that 22-6, 2.60 ERA season from Jon Lester, because it sure seems Lester doesn't expect it from himself.
And here's some good news for Lester -- if he has a season to match 2012 in 2013, he won't have to worry about anyone confusing him with an ace again.
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