"Our expectation is Jacoby will be here and be our center fielder."

-- Ben Cherington, Dec. 5, 2012

Well, what was he supposed to say? I have no idea if Ben Cherington is going to be able to trade Jacoby Ellsbury, but I do know it is of zero benefit for him to feed the media anything but quotes like the one above when dealing with the Ellsbury situation. 

Here's what we do know: The Red Sox have made it clear this offseason -- from both Larry Lucchino and Cherington -- they are moving away from the six- and seven-year deals. Lesson learned. They are very willing, as we've seen, to overpay for three years, but the current philosophy is to avoid the kind of long-term contracts that could put the Red Sox in the exact same position they were in last August, but this time without a miracle bailout from another organization.

Makes sense to you and me. Scott Boras probably has a different perspective, though. He thinks there is a team out there willing to give Ellsbury those six or seven years. And he's almost certainly right -- if Ellsbury has a good season in 2013, not another MVP-type season, just a solid .280-15-75 with 35 steals, someone will give him a nine-figure deal. Just take a look at the market. B.J. Upton has never had a year close to Ellsbury's 2011, is coming off of a .246/.298/.454 season and got a five-year, $75 million contract with the Braves. 

You could argue that's an awful deal for Atlanta -- and I'd agree with you -- but that's the point. There is always, always a desperate team out there and that's one of the reasons Boras has that house in Malibu.  

So if the Red Sox are indeed going to stick to this plan, and Boras is going to stick to his -- and let's not even address the idea that the Sox and Ellsbury might come to an agreement this offseason, why would Boras and Ellsbury want to sign when his value is down? -- it is inevitable that Ellsbury will be playing for a different franchise in 2014.

And that's exactly why the Red Sox are absolutely correct in trying to trade him right now. We know of two trades involving Ellsbury -- a deadline  deal with the Rangers last season and the Cliff Lee deal that the Red Sox reportedly offered last week -- that have fallen through. I suspect there have been other proposals, and there should continue to be more until the Red Sox finally get as close to equal value as possible for Ellsbury, which admittedly will be tricky.

Let's for a moment pause and actually take a look at Ellsbury from the side of the team on the other end of that phone call from Cherington. Would you be willing to give up real value, an essential piece (or pieces) of your present and/or future for a guy who A) has had seasons of 18 and 74 games played in two of the last three years, B) has one full season with an OPS over .800 in his career, C) is in his last season before free agency and D) has Scott Boras as his agent?

Helps explain why the Phillies -- at the time in serious need of a center fielder and one of the few franchises in baseball capable (or willing) of paying Ellsbury what he'll get if he's as good in 2013 as he was in 2011 (think $150 million) -- turned down the Lee deal and instead traded for Ben Revere, who isn't in Ellsbury's class as a player but north of serviceable and under club control until 2018. 

(And I would have made that deal in a flash if I were the Red Sox -- for all the debate about Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino and Josh Hamilton and what to do with Ellsbury, we all understand it comes down to pitching. That's it -- without it you are what we've been watching since Sept. 1, 2011. Lee would have instantly given this team something it hasn't had since Josh Beckett in 2007 -- an actual, no-debate-about-it ace of the staff. Lee isn't the best pitcher in baseball, but he's one of the best half-dozen or so and has shown no signs of decline even as he enters his mid-30s. Look at the numbers -- last season Lee led the National League in K/BB ratio, had a 3.16 ERA and a WHIP of 1.11. Sure, it would have been a risk at three years and $75 million and potentially four years at $102.5 million, but this has game-changing upside. You put Lee at the top of the rotation and move Buchholz and Lester down a spot that suddenly looks pretty good, no? And if you can ever find a way to sneak into the playoffs -- not an impossible ask in this era -- you have Cliff Lee, one of the two or three best postseason pitchers of his generation, making two starts in a five-game series of maybe three in a seven-game series.)

So this will be a tough sell and still another test for Cherington, who hasn't exactly overwhelmed in his 13-plus months as general manager. But he has to keep kicking tires, has to continue to try and be creative in his attempts to move Ellsbury, because if the season stars and Ellsbury is still around it'll be really hard to make an in-season deal on a number of levels. First, a team trading for Ellsbury at the deadline this season would not receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere, which would of course be a very real possibility. Also this: I don't think the Red Sox, as presently constituted, are a live threat to be a World Series contender this season. But I expect them to be somewhere in the range of reasonable contention for the second wild card when the deadline arrives (as disastrous as last year was -- and it really was -- the Red Sox were 3 1/2 games out of the wild card on July 31). What kind of message would it send to fans if they moved Ellsbury -- particularly if he's having a terrific season -- with the playoffs a possibility? 

It doesn't have to be for full value -- 70 cents on the dollar is realistic. It doesn't have to be for an ace (forget the Felix Hernandez rumors -- why would Seattle trade the best pitcher in baseball for a possible one-year rental?) or a future ace. But the Red Sox need reliable starting pitching, and Ellsbury is a chip that should land them exactly that. Yup, the Red Sox would receive a draft pick if he left after the 2013 season and that's not insignificant, but there must be a limit to that value because this team is trying to move him. 

If you believe Ben Cherington and Scott Boras, Jacoby Ellsbury is a goner. 

There is no need to delay the inevitable. The time to trade Ellsbury is now.