Just because we live in a world where Shane Victorino can make $39 million over three years doesn't mean it's OK to pay Shane Victorino $39 million over three years.
Maybe there is a long-term plan -- maybe this paves the way for trading Jacoby Ellsbury for legitimate starting pitching (which, let us not forget, is all that really matters) -- but as an individual baseball decision the addition of Victorino at that price is a mistake, plain and simple.
Of the 144 major league players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title last season, Victorino ranked 116th in OPS and 121st in slugging (that would be one spot ahead of Mike Aviles). I know we have been told not to care about batting average anymore, but for those of you dinosaurs who pay attention to that charming but antiquated statistic should note that Victorino hit a career-worst .255 in 2012, 20 points below his career average.
So for the second time in as many days it appears Ben Cherington -- with many if not most of the local media only too happy to help with positive spin -- has overpaid for a player coming off of a lousy season. Isn't it supposed to be the other way? Understanding there has been shifts and guys almost always get paid more than they should, it still strikes me that Victorino should come closer to a buy-low candidate than an clear and obvious overpay.
And it really shouldn't matter that the Cleveland Indians had already offered Victorino $44 million over four years, as has been reported. Not a factor. If that's an actual option for Victorino, you let him go to Cleveland and find someone else.
I get the Napoli signing, I really do. I think it's too much money for a player who has played 113 and 108 games the last two seasons (still would like to know why Texas -- we all agree a pretty solid baseball organization, right? -- declined on the $13.3 qualifying offer to Napoli while the Sox were happy to triple it in both years and money) and is coming off of a 2012 line of .227/.343/.812, but I recognize the upside.
Victorino is a platoon player. This is not written to be hyperbolic, to get a rise, it is a statistical reality. And you'd think for $13 million a year you would at least get a platoon player who excels against right-handed pitching. That's not Victorino.
In 2012 Victorino had a .229/.296./.333 line against righties. Now, to be fair, that came in the worst season of his major league career (it's true -- Victorino landed a $39 million deal after posting the worst OBP, slugging and batting average of his career, and we aren't exactly dealing with past numbers that will be confused with Miguel Cabrera's). So let's go just a year back to 2011. Victorino had a fine season, finishing with a slugging percentage of .491 and an OPS of .847. Guess what? He was still just a little better than average against righties -- slugged .455 with an OPS of .787 -- but destroyed lefties, an OPS of 1.032.
For his career Victorino has 2.979 plate appearances against right-handed pitching as a left-handed batter and his OPS is .732. In his last three seasons -- which, again, includes 2011, maybe the best of his career -- he has a .387 slugging percentage in 1,231 at-bats as a left-handed hitter (for some frame of reference, Darnell McDonald has a career .394 slugging percentage.) Victorino's struggles as a left-handed hitter were so profound last season that at the end of the year the switch-hitter began to hit right-handed against right-handed pitching. To some that might be a red flag, for the Red Sox it's evidently still another reason to go above market value.
Look, there are positives to Victorino, of course. A very good defensive player and by every account a swell guy to have in the clubhouse. And three years and $39 million isn't the kind of contract that will come close to limiting this franchise when exploring other options.
And those other moves may happen this week. At some point Cherington will have to get around to finding some reliable starting pitching. And I'm not talking 38-year-old R.A. Dickey for the two best prospects in the organization, but someone who fits in the middle of the rotation and is under some club control contractually. Not an easy find, but an essential one. We can talk all day about chicken and beer and Bobby Valentine and chemistry and how much John Henry enables the players and all that stuff, but the Red Sox were the best team in baseball in August 2011 and have been 30 games below .500 since because of the starting pitching. If Cherington doesn't solve that, Napoli and Victorino are meaningless.
It's very early, but the returns on the Era of Discipline have been David Ross, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino for about 110 million bucks. Not a disaster, but is anyone really overwhelmed by that haul?
And Victorino is easily the worst of the four deals. American League batters had a .731 OPS last season. Victorino has a career .732 OPS against right-handed pitching. For roughly three-quarters of his at-bats Victorino is by definition an average hitter. And for that he will be paid $13 million for each of the next three seasons.
That may not qualify as undisciplined, but it's the worst move Ben Cherington has made in his tenure as general manager of the Red Sox.
Pete joined the show to discuss Tebow's signing with the Patriots. He said that Tim Tebow cant play and that he has trouble learning NFL playbooks.
On this episode of the It Is What It Is Cast, Chris Price talks with the Boston Herald's Jeff P Howe about the Patriots offseason, Rob Gronkowski's back surgery, Danny Amendola replacing Wes Welker, and how this seasons team will stack up against last seasons.
In the latest edition of the It Is What It Is Cast, Chris Price talks with Will Carroll. Injury expert and lead writer for Sports Medicine, Bleacher Report. They talk about the injury to Rob Gronkowski and what his back surgery could mean for his season.
Jeff joined the show to discuss the rumors of Doc heading to the Clippers. Jeff said that he will not discuss his future but that his brother would be a great candidate anywhere.
Stephen A. joined the show to discuss the status of trade negotiations between the Clippers and the Celtics. Stephen said that it is a 50-50 proposition that Doc ends up in Los Angeles.
Grande and Max take more calls on the Celtics and discuss what lies ahead for Doc Rivers with Steve Bulpett.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Joe & Dave talked to the Sox outfielder, who pounded the ball out of the park to win the second game of the doubleheader against the Rays.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Pierre McGuire joins Mut and Merloni after a Bruins win and discusses the play of Rask and the defense, the Hossa injury, and Jagr.
Tony Amonte calls out Marian Hossa for missing Game 3 and recaps the Bruins win.
Barry joined the show to discuss the Bruins 2-0 win over the Blackhawks in game three. Barry continues to be impressed by the play of Bergeron.
Barry joined the show to discuss the Bruins 2-0 win over the Blackhawks in game three. Barry continues to be impressed by the play of Bergeron.
Jeff joined the show to discuss the rumors of Doc heading to the Clippers. Jeff said that he will not discuss his future but that his brother would be a great candidate anywhere.
The guys opened the show discussing the Bruins' dominating Game 3 win over the Blackhawks. Gerry thinks the series is over.
Pierre McGuire joins Mut and Merloni after a Bruins win and discusses the play of Rask and the defense, the Hossa injury, and Jagr.
Tony Amonte calls out Marian Hossa for missing Game 3 and recaps the Bruins win.
Andy Brickley joins Mut and Merloni in studio to take phone calls from the listeners and to preview Game 3 of the Stanley Cup.
Salk and Holley break down a big Bruins win over the Blackhawks in game 3 at the garden.
We talk all Bruins, all the time with the man himself, Jack Edwards from NESN gets us ready for game three and beyond.
Four guys, four topics we haven't yet touched upon today. TO visits Ocho, Bob Costas has enough smarm for us all, stupid beauty pageant contestants and more.
Mikey gets a surprise call from Bernie Carbo, they talk about old time baseball and Bernie's new book.
Mikey talks with Tom and Luke about their new movie, Plimpton! and finds out what it was like to try to encapsulate everything Plimpton accomplished during his life.
Today on the Daily Planet, the Red Sox and Yankees face off in the Bronx, Claude Julien doesn't want players wasting energy, and Dwight Howard and free agency.
You ask, we answer. Today featuring NESN's Jack Edwards.
The new way we end the show. You ask, we answer.
You ask, we answer... anything!
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