I'm wrong all the time.

I was the guy who thought Ryan Leaf was going to better than Peyton Manning (hey, they've both been released). Todd Zeile was going to be Johnny Bench, Kevin Morton was going to be Steve Carlton and the government was engaged with the Patriots in a conspiracy to keep Michael Bishop on the bench. And, more recently, who picked Adrian Gonzalez to win the Triple Crown this season? 

But I've never been as wrong as often and in such a short time as I've been surrounding all things Josh Beckett -- now 5-9 with a 4.97 ERA, 32nd out of 40 eligible AL pitchers this season after another disgraceful outing Wednesday -- since last September. 

I didn't think it was possible that a starting pitcher could gain 30 or so pounds over a season and have no one on the team or front office (or the media) call him out for it during that season.

I was wrong.

I really believed -- I feel like such a dope in retrospect -- that Beckett would show up to spring training in the best physical condition he's ever been in. Come on, how could he not be? To not do so, I assumed, would really be a 50,000-watt "f--k you" to the organization and the fans. Think about it: Has any athlete in this city ever had more incentive to right a wrong? Oh, by the way, he's paid $15 million a season to stay in reasonable shape. 

I was wrong. Beckett looks exactly the same as he did last September. He's 20, 25 pounds overweight, which is really remarkable when you consider everything we learned last year. It's a statement, and an extraordinarily telling one. 

Contrition? An apology for his role in the worst collapse in baseball history? An explanation for chicken and beer, as overblown as the story might've been? Yup, I was expecting something.

Wrong. What I didn't realize was this: Beckett doesn't believe he did anything wrong. He thinks it's all a media creation, of course. And you know what? It's not all Beckett's fault. Sure, he's an adult and should know right from wrong, but I'll bet all the money in my pockets against all the money in your pockets that no one in the Red Sox organization ever had a conversation with Beckett about anything we read from Bob Hohler. That's not how they do things, the players always get a free pass. And that seems particularly to be the case with Beckett and I'll never understand why. 

(And I wonder if he's searching for whoever ratted out Valentine for the Middlebrooks stuff with the same intensity he has when hunting down whoever fed Hohler the dirt. I'm gonna guess that's a negative.) 

When Ben Cherington -- who I guess was right when he said all he wanted from Beckett is to "generally" give the Sox a chance to win, at least he's arrived at the reality that this is at best an average major-league starting pitcher -- failed to move Beckett at the trade deadline, I thought it made some sense to keep him around, if only because it's lousy business to deal a guy when his value is lowest. I figured it wasn't possible that Beckett's value could go even further south than it was at 3 p.m EST on July 31, 2012. 

Well, two awful starts and another back injury later, turns out I was wrong. Unless the Sox literally take his entire salary, Beckett isn't going anywhere. And good luck doing better than 30 cents on the dollar in the offseason. My guess is that Josh Beckett will be with the Sox in 2013. 

You just don't boo an injured player. That's always been the rule as a sports fan and I've always agreed with it. No exceptions. It sends a terrible message and speaks volumes about priorities and sets a very tricky precedent. A year ago, you could not have given me a scenario where I would have signed off on booing a injured player, I would have thought it impossible.

I was wrong. I had zero problem -- none -- with Sox fans hammering Beckett when he walked back to the dugout after for asking out of a game with a back spasm. If it was Felix Doubront or Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz or any other pitcher on the roster, sure. Poor form, all that. But Beckett has demanded to be booed because he hasn't changed. All that happened last year and in the offseason meant nothing to him. His words and appearance make that screamingly obvious. So booing Beckett is the only way to hold him accountable, because Beckett hasn't shown any personal accountability and the organization has done nothing but enable and coddle time and time again. Booing Beckett is, for now, being a good and smart fan. It's what he deserves. 

The idea of yanking Beckett out of the rotation was always a reach at best, a break from reality from a sports talk caller.  As hideously mediocre as he's been this season, I never thought he was a worse option than, say, Aaron Cook. 

Guess what? Wrong again. Right now, Beckett is only in the rotation because he makes $15 million bucks. That's it. He is not one of the five best starting pitchers on the roster. Buchholz is clearly better, Lester has shown progress (though it's amazing to note that he and Beckett have combined to win exactly one game since June 27, a total of 14 starts. The Sox are where they are because of Beckett and Lester. Everything else -- Valentine vs. players, rats in the clubhouse, even injuries -- is mythology. If Lester and Beckett were earning their keep this team would be a couple of games behind the Yankees and in terrific wild-card position), Doubront has helped keep this season semi-alive and Morales has done more positive in his six starts than Beckett has done in his last 20. To me, Cook is basically a wash with Beckett for the rest of the season. Both are No. 5 starters, it's just that one acts and is treated like an ace. And if I'm a Sox fan, I'm far less offended when Cook gets pounded. And he gave up one run in seven innings vs. the Rangers on Monday night. You taking him out and keeping Beckett in?

And I think Wednesday's debacle against the Rangers -- eight hits, eight runs in five innings in a must-win game for a team that is running out of time and excuses -- was rock bottom for Beckett. We're finally here. It can't get any worse.

Think I could be wrong?