A 49-50 record with a $178 million payroll.

Last place in the American League East.

Communication issues within his coaching staff.

Not the first, second or 456th choice for the job by his general manager.

Only one year left (at, given the payroll of his team, really low money) on his contract.

A team that either unanimously despises or can barely tolerate him, depending on what you believe. 

What we have, on July 26, is a hugely underachieving team, coming off the worst collapse in baseball history, being managed by someone who isn't wanted by his general manager or many if not most of his players.

At first glance, isn't Bobby Valentine a perfect candidate to be fired?

Let me get this out of the way: I don't think Bobby Valentine should be fired. It's about as much his fault that the Sox have spent all of 2012 with both legs wrapped around .500 as it is Jenny Dell's (and Valentine can actually do a live spot on TV). 

That's not the issue. Sure, there are some nits that can be picked -- he's overused some in the bullpen (though the obvious counter is: Who the hell are you gonna use?), there is never a reason to hit Nick Punto leadoff, he used Justin Thomas in key spots early in the season -- but we could do that with Terry Francona or any other manager in the history of baseball. I haven't seen the in-game genius from Valentine that the Nick Cafardos of the world were selling us when he was hired, but (and remember we are only talking in-game here) I haven't seen much to suggest that a decade out of major league baseball has affected his abilities. Again, I think Francona would probably be right around 49-49 with this team -- it's not about the manager with this group.

Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have been absolutely pathetic this season, and that has nothing to do with Bobby Valentine, who also had nothing to do with spending a quarter of a billion dollars on John Lackey and Carl Crawford with zero return nearly five years (combined) into their deals. Did I miss Valentine injuring Andrew Bailey or Jacoby Ellsbury or Crawford or David Ortiz or Dustin Pedroia? Was it Valentine who was responsible for the worst half of baseball of Adrian Gonzalez's career? 

You and I know that Valentine is way down the list of what is wrong with this team. I'm not even saying he's necessarily the answer as the manager, but it's impossible to make any real assessment based on what we've seen. In a perfect world, regardless of what happens the rest of the season (because this team isn't making the playoffs) Valentine would be back in 2013. If he struggles again, OK, that's how it goes and he'll back at ESPN.  

But I have my doubts that he'll get that second season. Let's take this scenario for a spin: The Sox don't make any significant moves -- either as buyers or sellers -- before the deadline. So you've got the same clubhouse, a clubhouse that has the potential to revolt (in more ways than one, actually). If the Sox lose 12-of-16 or 14-of-22 in August and players are constantly bitching about the manager to Ben Cherington, will ownership have the grapefruits to take a stand and back someone they haven't shown a lot of faith in to date? If it comes down to Pedroia vs. Valentine, or Lester vs. Bobby V, is there any doubt which way they'll go and how fast they'll get there?

Let's be fair -- recent history doesn't demonstrate heaps of loyalty from the fellas upstairs. Francona was fired (yes, he was fired), Theo Epstein jumped to Chicago and Curt Young was allowed to go back to Oakland (how's that going?) after the disaster in September. But every key player in the collapse returned. No examples were made. 

And I wouldn't be shocked if that happens again. Not at all. Now, I don't think Valentine will lose his job this season. If it gets to the point where the season is a lost cause, what would be the benefit? Also this: Valentine is Larry Lucchino's guy all the way. If the Sox dumped the most successful manager in franchise history and his successor couldn't make it to Week 1 of the NFL season, that would (correctly) be viewed as a screaming embarrassment, a huge knock on Lucchino. And the last thing ownership is interested in is making Terry Francona look even better.

But I think Bobby Valentine has 64 games left as Sox manager. They'll miss the playoffs and he'll be one and done. And once he leaves and the players again get what they wanted, you'll read stories -- this time with players talking -- about how awful the clubhouse atmosphere was, how out of touch Valentine was, how he would (gasp) call players out in front of teammates and how it just wasn't the right fit. 

And another manager will come in and the real problems still will remain. And another pitching coach (fourth in four years, what's the common thread?) will come in and the real problems still will remain. 

Because no one will trade for Josh Beckett. Because no one will trade for John Lackey. Because no one will trade for Carl Crawford. Because the Red Sox won't want to trade Jon Lester. The culture will be same. Because ownership will continue to enable players who have done nothing over the last three years to deserve the right to choose what channel should playing on the televisions in the locker room, much less who gets to be manager of the Boston Red Sox.

The last coach or manager hired in Boston will be the next to go. Bobby Valentine was never given a chance to succeed here -- the players were told he wasn't going to be the choice, the players didn't want to listen to him, the general manager took the side of a player when the first conflict occurred -- and I'm not sure why it'll be any different for the next guy.

If the Red Sox get rid of Bobby Valentine, I'm OK with it. I really am. As long as they get rid of Beckett, Lackey, Crawford and any other player who quit on Francona and Valentine. Oh, the medical staff has to go again, too. And I want to see legitimate accountability from the front office, not just e-mails, pep talks and celebrations for fraudulent sellout streaks. In other words, stop treating us like morons and start understanding that there are very real problems that have nothing to do with the manager. If all that stuff happens and the Sox still decide Valentine isn't the guy, I can live with it.

But that's not how it works with this organization. It's easier to pick a fall guy than to figure out what's causing the failures.

And that's how you get to 49-50.