Let's let reason and logic have its moment.

The 2012 Boston Red Sox have played three of 162 games. That constitutes exactly 1/54th of the season. To make any definitive statement about what this team is or is not is roughly the equivalent of doing so to an NFL team with 11 minutes left in the second quarter of Week 1. 

But if you watched Sunday's disastrous loss in Detroit -- that would be an ERA and WHIP of infinity for your current and very soon-to-be (T-minus six hours?) ex-closer -- I'm guessing you aren't particularly interested in reason and logic right about now. 

And you shouldn't be. It's hard to write this based off of 28 innings of baseball, but if you don't have a lousy feeling about the long-term prospects of the 2012 Red Sox, you are lying to yourself. 

The bullpen is in absolute chaos, and I think it's not impossible that Daniel Bard is moved into the closer role before he gets a chance to make a single start. Think about this: Bard, who has never really been a closer in the major leagues and was as responsible as anyone for the September meltdown last year (0-4 with a 10.64 ERA seems quaint only when put next to all the things we learned courtesy of Mr. Bob Hohler), is now looked at as a potentially solidifying force in the ninth inning. 

And you know what? If moving Bard to the bullpen is what the Red Sox ultimately are going to do in two or three weeks if this continues, they should just drop the charade and do it today. I think it's a mistake -- a good starting pitcher is more valuable than a closer, and the Sox should at least give Bard an opportunity to be the starting pitcher they've told us all offseason he's going to be -- but I also think it's inevitable. And if that does happen, I'd be horrified that the organization is making crucial decisions before the home opener. 

If -- again, lots of ifs -- this bullpen is the mess that we all suspect it might just be, don't blame Bobby Valentine or Theo Epstein or John Henry or Jenny Dell. This is on Ben Cherington. It would be a massive indictment on what he did in his first couple of months on the job if we see Bard as the closer sooner rather than later. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon were brought in both to replace Jonathan Papelbon and allow Bard to transition to the rotation. 

We are three games into the season and Bailey already is a 2012 wipeout and Melancon -- who isn't Mariano Rivera but was perfectly serviceable closing for Houston last year -- isn't getting a ninth-inning sniff, passed over in favor of Aceves (four career saves). The Red Sox have showed zero confidence to date in Melancon, and moving Bard to the bullpen would pretty much cement that they don't think he has whatever it is they think it takes to finish games. Does that make Melancon already another Cherington bullpen flop?

Me, I'd leave the bullpen alone. Aceves and Melancon will return to what they are. Is that even close to Bard/Papelbon in the eighth and ninth innings? Nope, but I think they'll be OK, somewhere in the average range, which is why I rank bullpen a distant No. 2 on the list of things that would terrify me if I'm a Red Sox fan on April 9.

Look, I have no idea if Josh Beckett is faking a thumb injury or not, but it's almost immaterial at this point, because he pitched like a guy with a thumb injury on Saturday. He managed to do the impossible, which is make the Beckett of last September look like Justin Verlander. Beckett still thinks he's an ace, expects to be treated like an ace by fans and media, and is sure paid like an ace (that would be $47 million over the next three years). But, save for 2007, Josh Beckett has never been an ace for this team. He has now pitched 174 games for the Red Sox and has an ERA of 4.08. That's what he is.

But 30-plus starts with even that 4.08 ERA is something this team needs desperately. There are holes in the four and five spots in this rotation (by the way, didja notice that Clay Buchholz stunk in his first start since June?) and Beckett has to at least be a leave-alone guy. But raise your hand if you think it ends well for Beckett this year. It just seems destined for more drama, and if it in fact ends with the thumb surgery that Beckett conveniently mentioned as a possibility before his start on Saturday then this team is truly screwed. 

This is different than last year's slow start. There was all that Greatest Team Ever garbage to deal with, but when you stepped back and took a sober look it was clear that team would get going. There were no health issues last April and the bullpen was very clearly defined. We didn't know, at the time, about any strife between Terry Francona and management. We didn't know that Carl Crawford and John Lackey were going to flop at, given the salaries, almost historic levels. We didn't know about Clay Buchholz's back or that Bobby Jenks would contribute nothing or Theo Epstein's desire to live the philosophies of Bill Walsh. We just knew that the lineup was too good and the pitching was good enough to make an irrelevant season just about impossible.

But this isn't April 9, 2011. Now you've got at least one serious question in the rotation (plus this: Moving Bard to the bullpen would mean Aaron Cook to the rotation. I get that Cook was terrific this spring and had a nice start for Pawtucket this weekend, but this is still a guy with a 6.00 ERA over the last two years. He's basically been John Lackey) and huge questions in the bullpen. The lineup is still one of the top three or four in the majors, I think, but Crawford is a legitimate question mark today. 

And Bobby Valentine (who I think has been fine in these three games; he can't make Buchholz and Beckett pitch better) and Cherington are unknowns. Whatever you thought of Theo and Francona, at least there was the comfort in knowing that you had a GM/manager combo capable of winning a World Series. Valentine could turn out to be Earl Weaver and Cherington could be Branch Rickey, but they could also be Joe Kerrigan and Randy Smith.

There are plenty of questions, and this team has frankly lost the right to be trusted after the epic meltdown and everything that came to light in its wake. If you feel the Sox have to win you back after the collapse, that's a perfectly justifiable stance. I'd be guarded, too.

Last year it would have been absurd to panic after the lost weekend in Texas and the 2-10 start. 

This year? I think it's an understandable reaction.