One man's ranking of the six legitimate MVP candidates (with the understanding that this list can and very probably will completely change in a matter of days):

6. Justin Verlander

Look, starting pitchers just don't win the MVP. Roger Clemens in 1986 was the last pitcher to win it, and there have only been seven pitchers since 1950 to capture the award. You would need a historical season -- think Bob Gibson and his 1.12 ERA and Denny McLain and his 31 wins, both in 1968, Sandy Koufax with a 25-5 record and 1.88 ERA in 1963 -- plus a division title plus a lack of other significant candidates to have a chance today. It just doesn't happen anymore. Pedro Martinez didn't win one (and no one in history can match Pedro at his peak 1999 and 2000 -- he finished second and should have won over Ivan Rodriguez in '99), Greg Maddux never won (finished third in 1995 after his 19-2. 1.63 season), same with Randy Johnson. 

Here's the best case I can make for Verlander -- clearly having a terrific if not transcendent season -- as a serious MVP threat: Close strong, win 23, 24 games with an ERA around 2.00, have the Tigers make the postseason and have all the other everyday players in MVP contention go in the tank over the next six weeks. If one of the Red Sox players or Jose Bautista or Curtis Granderson finish with the kind of numbers MVP voters are comfortable with -- and it's hard to imagine  that at least two or three won't -- a 22, 23-win Verlander will have to live with a Cy Young and top-five MVP finish. 

5. Jacoby Ellsbury

Losing a little momentum with a slowish August (.255/.300/.455 in 13 games) but he's absolutely still in position to make an MVP push with a Pedroia in 2008 kind of finish. Ellsbury's sixth in batting average, second in runs, third in total bases, first in triples, ninth in OPS, eighth in doubles, fifth in wins above replacement (third among position players) and fourth in stolen bases. 

A breakout season, clearly, but the problem for the Red Sox center fielder as MVP is this: The center fielder for the Yankees has scored 22 more runs (for a team that has scored 44 fewer runs than the Sox), hit 13 more homers, knocked in 20 more runs, has 21 more walks, a .580-508 slugging percentage edge and a 71-point lead in OPS. How can Jacoby Ellsbury be MVP of the American League if he hasn't been the most valuable player at his position in the AL East?

4. Dustin Pedroia

Here's where it gets very close -- I think any of the top four candidates could be put in the lead spot and it would make sense. Pedroia is having his best season, on pace to set career highs in HR, RBI, OBP and OPS (he's already walked 73 times in 2011, one short of his career high). Also the defense (leads all MLB second baseman in total zone rating, was fourth in 2008), while never traditionally a real factor in determining MVP, has to be recognized at least as a possible tie-breaker for a voter. I'm not sure he deserved the MVP in 2008 -- he was 18th in OPS, eighth in wins above replacement for position players (he's third this season) -- but none of the other legitimate candidates (Justin Morneau, Carlos Quentin) did anything over the last month or so of the season while Pedroia closed out with a 1.060 OPS in August and .914 in September to steal the MVP.

Are his numbers going to fit the classic MVP profile at the end of the season? Nope. But if he has a finish in the neighborhood close to 2008 -- and he's hitting .383 in the second half -- he's got a very live shot at MVP No. 2 (only Ted Williams has won multiple MVPs in the history of the Sox). Also this: Voters love Pedroia. The image that has been created -- see Verducci, Tom, for the most recent example -- is what voters want to believe a baseball player really is. Call it the throwback factor (and it could be that is exactly who Pedroia is -- I don't claim to have a clue on the subject). And if it's a tight race between Pedroia and anyone else I think that will help him, as I think it helped him three years ago.

3. Jose Bautista

Fair or not, we all have our suspicions, right? But that's all they are, so let's put baseball McCarthyism on the bench and look at Jose Bautista the player in 2011, not the Jose Bautista who hit 43 homers in 400 games with the Pirates. If we aren't looking at standings and simply handing the MVP to the most productive hitter in the American League? Well, Bautista would be an easy pick. He leads the league in home runs, walks, OBP (by 25 points), slugging, OPS (by 106 points) OPS+ and all MLB players and pitchers in wins above replacement. 

But where a team finishes matters. We know that. And the Blue Jays are probably going to be at least 15 games (give or take) behind the second-place team in the AL East, which leads to the inevitable question: Do you give the MVP to a guy who carried a fifth-place team to third place? Probably not, looks like the Hank Aaron Award and a bunch of other swell parting gifts for Bautista. But if he has a monster September and everyone else falls back, his numbers would be very difficult to ignore.

2. Adrian Gonzalez 

My preseason and midseason pick for MVP. And you now what? Assuming that he hasn't actually lost the ability to hit home runs and is just in the middle of one of those funks that happen in the life of a 162-game season I still think he ends up with the award. Despite the one home run in 28 games, Gonzalez is still hitting .347 with a .406 OBP since the All-Star Break and is on pace to finish the season with 25 homers, 125 RBI, 230 hits, 110 runs and a .352 batting average. If his final six weeks match his May and June production, he'll win the MVP. Easy call and he'll win in a walk -- a Gold Glove first baseman hitting .350 with 30 homers and 135 RBI for a postseason team? He'd be a lock and best fits the classic profile we talked about earlier. But if he hits two or three home runs in September and the Yankees win the AL East, or Pedroia hits .360, or Bautista reaches 50 homers again? I suspect the voters -- correctly or not -- will go another way.

1. Curtis Granderson 

Want to get the bad stuff out of the way? He strikes out too much (128, third in the league), he's 38th in batting average (.273, same as Larry Hisle's career average, for all you fans of the 1978 Milwaukee Brewers) and isn't going to be confused with Willie Mays (or Hayes, to be fair) as a defensive center fielder. I get it. Pedroia and Gonzalez are great players. Ellsbury sure looks like a guy turing into a great player in front of us this year. Granderson could be a good player having a great season. It happens. But that doesn't change the reality -- the man has scored 22 more runs than any player in the American League (Ellsbury and Bautista, tied for second, are closer to 19th place than they are to Granderson and his 107 runs.) He leads the American League in RBI. He's one HR behind Bautista for the AL lead. His slugging percentage is .580, 28 points higher than Gonzalez, 72 points higher than Ellsbury and 99 points higher than Pedroia. Granderson is on pace to score 146 runs (no active player has more than 143 in a season), hit 45 homers, knock in 128 runs and steal 30 bases for a team that is going to the postseason with an offense that has not been in the same class as the Sox this season. 

It might change -- and again, I still think it will be Gonzalez when the season is done -- but Curtis Granderson has been the most valuable player in the American League this season.