Walk me through this as if I'm a complete moron (I know, I know, but sometimes we need to suspend disbelief. Or do we need to suspend belief? I'm confused. And also a moron):
The Red Sox have the league's best offense. They've scored the most runs, have the most hits, most doubles, most total bases, highest batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. We are talking historically good here, right next to the 1950 and 2003 lineups as the best in franchise history.
(How's this for dominant? The Red Sox have five regulars -- Adrian Gonzalez, Jacoby Ellsbury, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz -- with an OPS of .880 or higher. The rest of the American League has a total of five.)
And on July 27, every significant contributor to this offense is healthy.
Josh Reddick -- in admittedly just 119 plate appearances, though I'm beginning to wonder if we aren't getting closer to the point where it is no longer necessary to preface each mention of Reddick with an apology for lack of sample size -- has been Stan Musial, putting up a .362/.403/.619 line.
So why do I keep hearing and reading about Carlos Beltran?
OK, Carlos Beltran is having a terrific season, the best of his seven years with the Mets (leads the National League in extra-base hits and doubles and is in the top 10 in walks, RBI, runs created). No argument here.
Clearly having Beltran on the Red Sox would make this already loaded offense even better. That's not debatable and not even the issue. And you know what? If Beltran showed up Moonlight Graham-style in Terry Francona's office today, ready to play for meal money and a place to stay, that would be swell.
But Beltran is THE name of this deadline (well, Beltran and Jimemez, I guess). And the Mets are going to have five or six teams (Mets, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Indians. Yankees, Sox at least) competing for a chance to grab Beltran (and his $6 million) for the next 90 days.
So you are going to have to give up prospects. Plural. And again, the number of teams involved drives up the quality of prospects that you'll have to hand over. Are you willing to give up two of the top five or six prospects in the system (which might even include Reddick) to land Beltran?
Let's assume that the answer to that question is yes. You wouldn't be alone. I watched Felger and Buckley (two smart baseball guys, and by that I mean one smart baseball guy and one guy not named Steve Buckley) on Comcast agree Sunday that they would in fact do what has to be done to make sure Carlos Beltran is wearing a Sox uniform on August 1. And plenty of callers have weighed in on 'EEI and are on board with Beltran as well.
I don't get it. We can all agree that there is no chance the Sox would sign Beltran to a deal after this season, right? David Ortiz is going to back as DH, so are the Red Sox going to throw some fairly serious money at Beltran when they'll already have spent hundreds of millions of dollars on that lineup? Plus there will be either Reddick and Kalish waiting in right field for very little dough and under club control.
Oh, and there's this: If Beltran signs somewhere else as a free agent the Red Sox or whatever team trades for him will get nothing back for him. His contract stipulates that a team can't offer him arbitration, which wipes out the potential for draft-pick compensation. In totally unrelated news, there are still no announced plans to build an Omar Minaya statue outside of Citi Field.
This would be a rental, plain and simple. And I'm not going to try and sell you on the idea that this could turn out to be a Larry Anderson/Jeff Bagwell or Doyle Alexander/John Smoltz. Those are deadline outliers. But I don't think it's in any way a reach to imagine a scenario where the Sox give up a couple of guys that turn to be solid, useful big-league players (again, making almost no money for years -- and that does matter) for a piece to a puzzle -- and I'm not talking about pitching, just the offense -- that looks completed by any realistic measure.
And Theo Epstein knows this. That's why you are going to see nothing close to a blockbuster from the Red Sox this week. They might go the Reed Johnson route (wouldn't get highjacked for prospects, Johnson makes about 450K the rest of the year and is putting up a .356/.397/.534 vs. LHP) but that's about it. There is no reason for Theo to play the role of manic interventionist over the next five days. This is a leave-alone and take your chances team.
(On the other hand, I'd understand a Jimenez deal. He's 27 years old, probably at worst a solid No. 3 starter and will be paid just $18 million over the next three years. Unlike a Beltran, he helps you in 2011 and helps you in the future. That's the kind of trade I could see Theo making -- one that flips top prospects into an established star in his prime.)
Theo is paid to think about 2014 as well as 2011. And enough with the win at all costs angle -- this team is going to be in position to win a World Series for the next half-decade at least. If the Red Sox were fifth in the AL in runs scored, three games behind the Yankees, Josh Reddick was hitting .214 and the core of the team was past their prime (the one last run at it school of thought) there might be a case to be made for adding Beltran as a potential game-changer. But let's be fair: Even if Reddick hits the wall at Sean Young speed this lineup is still plenty good to win the World Series.
And that's all we're talking about here, isn't it? The Sox are making the playoffs. So we are really talking about -- at most -- 19 games. Are you trying to tell me that Carlos Beltran is absolutely going to be better than Reddick (or how about a Reddick/Johnson platoon) over a 19-game stretch?
The answer is no.
And no should also be the final word on Beltran to Boston.
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Sean talked with Doc at the Garden about the Sixers' comeback in the last game, and about the history of Game 5's.
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Chris Mannix joins the show to discuss the Celtics shocking Game 4 loss, Lebron James, and who he thinks will play in the NBA Finals.
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We discuss the Red Sox turn-around, and how it may be the players themselves who helped motivate each other by having a closed door meeting away from Bobby V and team management.
Matt Light makes his media debut on NFL Live on ESPN and Wes Welker dummies up after saying things are going well with the Patriots, then bad, then well again, then bad.
Ryder and Kirk talk about what the Red Sox might do when their injured position players start making their return to the lineup and what that could mean for the struggling Kevin Youkilis.
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The goon croons for a lost BeeGee, and Metallica on the accordion never sounded better.
Rhode Islanders vs Schilling... and they ain't happy.
This week's whine of the week winner. If you are our winner please send an email with all of your info to whineoftheweek@weei.com
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