"He doesn't need to. I've told him he doesn't need to."

-- Terry Francona, when asked last week if Jonathan Papelbon needs to look over his shoulder this season.

That's a tough sell, Tito. But we'll get to that later.

For now, let's start with this: Jonathan Papelbon simply can't win.

It's just a matter of time, isn't it? Papelbon could be perfect in April -- save 10 straight games, say -- but if he gives up a three-run homer to Jose Bautista on May 10 to blow a game it's going to be Level 5 bashing around here. 

Is it fair? Of course not. But that's the way it's going to be this year -- Papelbon's last in Boston -- for a guy who has lost his audience.

The fans? Ready to say goodbye. They were OK with the Game 3 meltdown against the Angels in 2009. It happens. Papelbon hadn't allowed a run in his first 26 postseason innings (with a 0.64 WHIP), the Sox were already down 2-0 in the series, all that stuff. Sure, it came at the end of a season that was statistically Papelbon's worst in his first four seasons as a closer, but come on. So his walks were up a tick or two, but when Papelbon walked off the mound after being yanked for Hideki Okajima in the ninth inning of that Angels' loss he was still viewed as one of the three best closers in the league. 

That was about 17 months ago. In the time between the Vladimir Guerrero Game 3 hit and today, Papelbon has fallen out of any serious conversation regarding baseball's best closer. You know the numbers from 2010 -- career worsts in walks (the root of the Papelbon problem -- his first four seasons he walked a total of 53 batters in 230 innings. The last two seasons he's walked 52 batters in 135 innings), ERA, home runs allowed, losses, blown saves and WHIP.

He's not at Just Another Guy status -- we're still talking about a top 10 closer -- but it's absolutely fair to question if the days of dominance are over. 

One thing we know for certain is this: His days with the Red Sox are done. This is it, you are about to witness Jonathan Papelbon's last season in Boston. Theo Epstein just isn't going to give a $45 million contract for 60 innings a year (sorry, I'm not counting the contract offer to Mariano Rivera. The Sox knew Rivera wasn't going anywhere, that was nothing more than a little slap and Hank and Hal). 

And Papelbon isn't going to take a hometown discount. 

“I’m here to get my fair share of money,” Papelbon told Rob Bradford in 2009. “I’ve got a lot of money to be made in this game, whether it’s with Boston or not. My goal is to make sure I’m ready to play every day and to make money, and you can’t make money if you’re sitting on the bench. That’s the way I look at it.”

So there it is. One of the best at what he does wants to be paid that way. Makes sense to me, and I give Papelbon points for honesty (even if I do get that it drives some fans crazy). And I have no doubt that some general manager will look at Papelbon’s history, age and the general paucity of year-in, year-out consistency from closers and offer Papelbon $10-12 million a year for four years. 

That general manager, of course, will not be named Theo Epstein. And the fans know this. And I'm not sensing a whole lot of outrage about it. 

You and I know the No. 1 reason why the people are ready for the End of Papelbon, right? Daniel Bard. If Papelbon had the same 2010 season but had Okajima and Scott Atchison as main closer competition I suspect there might be a lot more sentiment toward Papelbon as he entered his free-agent season. 

This isn't just a case Backup Quarterback-itis, either. Daniel Bard isn't Michael Bishop. We've seen enough of Bard -- 71 appearances last year -- to know that there is a very good possibility that we are looking at a future top-three closer. Put it another way: We believe we've seen the best of Papelbon and we don't know what Bard's ceiling is going to be. 

A contract season. Some alarming signs of decline. And a closer in waiting. 

Not hard to see how this could get ugly.

Which brings us back to the Francona quote. 

First, this is not going to be Keith Foulke Redux. Papelbon was awful by Papelbon standards in 2010. Foulke in 2005 was awful by the kid with the glasses who pitched for the Bad News Bears before Tatum O'Neal showed up standards. Papelbon isn't going to have a 5.91 ERA or a 1.55 WHIP. 

But this is a different situation. The 2005 Red Sox didn't have Bobby Jenks -- with contract incentives for finishing games -- and Bard kicking around in the 'pen (it was Curt Schilling who eventually took over for Foulke). And the 2005 Red Sox didn't spend $300 million to add a couple of players.

The 2011 Red Sox are the definition of a "win now" team. And I think Papelbon is going to be fine. Will he be the 2006 Papelbon, a 0.92 ERA and .776 WHIP? Probably not. But even if he's the 2010 Papelbon I think Francona sticks with him. No reason to force Bard in there, and there's no guarantee Jenks is going to be better than that -- he wasn't last year -- and Papelbon's 2010 results weren't bad enough to risk losing him for the season.

And Francona is going to give Papelbon plenty of rope even if he has a slow start. Too much history there, and too much history of Francona showing loyalty to veterans. But if Papelbon continues this slide and is really hurting this team and Bard or Jenks is pitching well, I think that Francona will make a move. It has to help that he knows that Papelbon is a goner after this season, so there is zero long-term concern if he pulls him from the closer position.

And even if Papelbon has a 22.00 ERA and 14 blown saves don't blame him when he goes off and blasts Francona or Theo if he's removed from the ninth-inning job (his failure to speak to the media after giving up three runs in a spring training game last week could be construed as a sign that he's already tight). Sure, I wonder how much of Papelbon’s persona is an act, but the guy has pride of ownership. Closer of the Boston Red Sox is a primo piece of MLB real estate, and Papelbon does embrace the role. He’s also the best relief pitcher in franchise history, and it's not even close (you can give me Dick Radatz, but Papelbon has a better career WHIP, ERA and ERA+). 

But he should be looking over his shoulders, and if he does he'll see Bard over one and Jenks over the other. 

And with the fans ready to move on and the Red Sox -- by all accounts -- not interested in a long-term commitment, Jonathan Papelbon enters the 2011 season as the one guy on a win-now team in a no-win situation.