Are we there yet?
Ready to press the panic button?
Believe me, I want to buy into the "small sample size" argument. And I understand that probably every team in baseball, at some point this season, will have at least one stretch where it loses nine of 13 games.
And it has occurred to me that guys are who they are, and if you leave them alone they'll usually end up right about where they always do. In other words, Victor Martinez isn't going to hit .212 this season and Jon Lester isn't going to end the year with an ERA of 8.44. Sold and sold. In theory, I get it.
But something doesn't quite feel right about the 2010 Red Sox, does it? I'm having trouble putting a finger on exactly what it is.
And as much as I'd like to be rational I think it's about time to take off the perspective hat and really get to the root of the problem.
Hey, let's blame David Oritz. Why not? After another hitless day at the plate, the artist formerly known as Big Papi owns a batting average of .162. If I'm Ortiz I don't think I'd be holding my breath in anticipation of another plaque from John Henry. What I'd be doing is getting in character for the opening of a play that should be debuting any day now: "The $25 million platoon." Wonder if Mike Lowell and Ortiz will feel "insulted" if the other gets top billing.
I guess the problem could be J.D. Drew, now I think about it. He's been kind of under the radar with all the other struggles for the Sox, but let's take a closer look at the man that Theo Epstein called "one of the two or three most valuable outfielders in the American League" at the end of last season. Does that .146 batting average mean that we won't be getting a contract-extension press conference this week?
And we have been briefed that runs batted in aren't a factor when you consider the production of J.D. That works out well when you realize that he has knocked in two runs in 41 at-bats this season. But to be fair, it's already Patriots Day and he still hasn't been on the DL.
Or is Victor Martinez to blame? After a hot start vs. the Yankees, it looked like V-Mart would simply continue the tear that he started after joining the Sox at the trade deadline last season. Some people even wrote, just two games into the season, that the Sox should lock him up to a long-term deal (OK, it was me -- lack of perspective works in each direction). Now he's sporting a nifty .212/.241/.346 line and the "Maybe we should let Varitek play more than once a week" whispers are already gaining steam.
And to top it off, Victor won't exactly be confused with Johnny Bench anytime soon when it comes to the ability to throw out would-be base stealers. It's too bad the media game isn't for a few months, maybe he could have caught that one for a little confidence boost. Though I'd give Jerry Remy even money odds today if he tried to swipe second off Martinez.
(Maybe we should give Papi-Drew-Victor a break, though. I mean, they have combined for a whopping 12 RBI in 131 at-bats. That does tie them with Orlando Cabrera for 2010. Wait, forgot. RBI means nothing. Move on.)
Wait, what about The Big Three? You know, the second coming of Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine? Well, the combined numbers of Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and John Lackey so far in 2010 gets you a 1-3 record with a 5.68 ERA. Not the kind of stuff that gets you a Sports Illustrated cover with the headline: "Boston Three Party!" But the good news for the rotation? Daisuke gets off the DL soon. It'll be nice to hear Don Orsilio break out the old "And Dice-K is at 76 pitches here in the third inning" line that he patented in 2008.
Did we ever get an answer on the whole Is There Such a Thing as Clutch Hitting debate? I've never bought into it, myself, but I'm starting to think that an anti-clutch element might exist. How else can you explain the Sox putting up a batting average of .000 in their last 32 at-bats with runners in scoring position? Can we get Bill James on this?
I don't want to pick on Bill Hall, but he gave Eric Gagne a legitimate scare and almost snared away the title for Worst First Fortnight in Red Sox History. If you had never seen Hall play before this season, you could only conclude that he can't hit and has the ability to play mediocre defense at several positions. He's been the worst of the new guys, but it's not as if the rest of the group has been busy taking curtain calls. We are 13 games into the season and the most notable moment from any member of the first-year group was Mike Cameron passing a kidney stone. Never good.
So there it is. If the Red Sox continue at this pace of ineptitude they will finish the season with a record of 50-112. And if the Yankees and Rays keep up the pace they have set it means the Sox would be a mere 75 games out of first at the end of the season.
OK, this might be a good time to re-attach the perspective hat.
I think it's entirely possible that on July 1 the Red Sox will be 15 games over .500 and nobody will remember this start. It is, after all, just 13 games. Just a fast look at the standings on this date last year gives you an idea about how much the first two weeks of a season can mean.
The AL East leaders on April 19, 2009? The Toronto Blue Jays. They finished 28 games out of first. The two teams that would eventually meet in the World Series -- the Yankees and Phillies -- were a combined 12-12, or 7.5 games behind the combined records of the Mariners and Marlins, a pair of teams that didn't make the playoffs.
Plus there are simply too many guys (the first three starters, the first four hitters in the everyday lineup, Jonathan Papelbon) with a high level of established production for a complete washout season to occur.
Are they as good as they were in the World Series years, or even last year? Time will tell, but I think it's fair to begin to question if this is even a playoff team.
But when it comes to pushing the panic button?
Not yet.
But feel free to check back in another two weeks.
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