Now that Josh Beckett is fat and happy (at least in a financial sense), is it too early to begin the Victor Martinez Contract Watch?

Martinez has stated that he will not negotiate during the season, but you and I know how that dance goes. Something tells me that if the Red Sox called tomorrow and offered him a five-year, $65 million contract, that stance might soften just a little.

But OK, I'll play along and assume that Martinez is done talking contract until the season is over, if only because it allows me to break out the old, "He's letting his bat do the talking" cliché.

The All-Star catcher was brilliant in his two-plus months with the Red Sox in 2009, batting .336 in 56 games. And if Tuesday night's battle with the Yankees is any indication, he's going to keep hitting in 2010.

Martinez blasted a two-run, opposite-field homer off of A.J. Burnett in the third inning to give the Sox a 3-1 lead, and later doubled off the wall in the fifth to knock in another run. Although the Sox would wind up on the short end of the 6-4 final, Martinez continued to state his case for a long-term deal with another big night at the plate.

"It'll even be better if we get a win," Martinez said after the game. "Personally, I just go out there and try to be a tough out, put a good swing on the ball and that's pretty much it."

The 31-year-old (career OBP: .371, a better mark than all but four of the catchers in the Hall of Fame ) is a perfect fit in the grind-'em-out Sox offense. It really does feel like he's been in Boston for years, not months, doesn't it?

"The thing that's been really helpful with us about Victor is that you are getting a veteran guy that doesn't let his ego get in the way," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said prior to Tuesday's game. "Sometimes you get a veteran that thinks they have all the answers, or can get stubborn. Victor is so open to listening."

We always read about how a player usually goes dramatically one way or another in terms of production during a contract year. But I really don't think that's the reality. It's simply that the media tends to focus more on a guy when he is having a monster contract year (see Adrian Beltre, 2004) or giving away millions with a stifferoo final season of a deal (Mr. Garciaparra, your table is ready.)

I would guess that if you did a study of 100 players in each sport and what he did in his contract season the numbers would be, for the most part, pretty close to the his career averages. Has a study like this been done? If not, can we get Nuggetpalooza on the case?

My point is that I don't believe that if Martinez hits .360 this year (which he won't, but follow me here) it will have anything to do with the amount of years left on his current deal. Same if he hits .260. I suspect that if anyone is hurt by the "contract year" curse it would be a player that is high-strung, or the type that reads everything that is written about him. And Martinez strikes me as neither.

Now, I get that the Red Sox have crunched all the numbers (the front office is into defense, don't know if you got the memo) and have come to the conclusion that Victor Martinez is not to be confused with Bob Boone as a defensive performer.

Agreed. But I do wonder how poorly he would have to play at his position defensively to even come close to fully negating the huge advantage he gives a club with the bat.

Here are Victor Martinez's Red Sox numbers to date, projected to 162 games:

.339 batting average

.403 on-base percentage

25 home runs

129 RBI

95 runs

70 walks

You could argue that these numbers are significantly above his career averages and that he'll settle down and return to what he has been. That's a fair stance, but remember this: In the Red Sox lineup Martinez hits between a former MVP (Dustin Pedroia. Probably if you're reading this you already knew who I was talking about) and a player that has finished third and sixth in MVP voting over the last two years (Kevin Youkilis, and I'm sorry if you're insulted.)

So he is going to see pitches, and he's going to see them with men on base. And while I would agree that he might not hit .340, a .310/.410/.500 line is not an unreasonable estimate for 2010.

If that is in fact the kind of season Martinez produces, and he's still not signed at the end of the season, then things will really get interesting.

Why? Because this isn't a Jason Bay situation. The fans were never more than a couple of degrees away from lukewarm in either direction with Bay, who had the misfortune of A) replacing Manny and B) failing the "Hey, does this guy have a personality?" test. I think the prevailing thought from the fans when it was announced that Bay signed with the Mets was "Eh." Never has the loss of a 36-homer, 119-RBI guy been met with such apathy.

But that won't be the case if Martinez produces and the Sox let him go. Beloved by the fans in Cleveland (it was a cry-fest -- both Martinez and the fans-- when he was dealt to Boston), Martinez is a locker room leader and high-energy guy. Not hard to imagine that Red Sox faithful will soon feel the way about Martinez that the folks in "the city on the ocean" (to paraphrase Oil Can Boyd) did.

Does that matter when Theo and the gang sit down and decide whether or not they will make an actual attempt to sign Martinez? Maybe not, but if things were close it might sway the decision one way or another.

I have a feeling that as long as Martinez is realistic -- meaning, basically, that the name "Mauer" never comes up during contract negotiations -- that a deal will get done. Sure, the Sox are worried that he might not be an everyday catcher for the life of a four-year deal, but at 31 years old one would have to think that he can give you two decent seasons behind the plate.

And if he turns into an DH/1B over the last couple of years is that really such a bad thing? His offensive skill set (high OBP, ability to hit to all fields) suggests that he will continue to produce past his prime years. So while he might not be a $12 million-$14 million player at that point, he won't be far off. We aren't looking at a Varitek type of dropoff.

I also think the Sox won't want to mess with a good thing in reagrds to the lineup. Four more years of Ellsbury-Pedroia-Martinez-Youkilis hitting 1-4 is a terrific building block for an offense. And I know that Adrian Gonzalez looms, but I wonder if he's worth twice the money that you would pay Martinez, not even including the prospects (and perhaps current members of the team) that you would lose in a potential Gonzalez deal.

Plenty of other questions remain but only one really matters.

Will he stay or will he go?

Exit stage left, Josh Beckett. Your time is up.

The Victor Martinez Contract Watch is underway.