In many respects, the Red Sox' fortunes in 2013 are tied to those of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. That notion is even more far-reaching, however, than might at first seem obvious.
Beyond the surface-level suggestion that the Sox need the two former All-Stars to return to pre-2012 form if they hope to contend in the AL East, there is the other way in which those two loom over the team's potential for the coming year. Red Sox GM Ben Cherington, in an interview on the WEEI Hot Stove Show on Thursday night, suggested that the pursuit of the next Lester and Buchholz played a considerable role in the team's offseason.
The Sox are not averse to trading their elite prospects (and pitching prospects) for the right, impactful return. Undoubtedly, no one in the organization would have been off-limits if the Marlins had ever made Giancarlo Stanton fully available. Likewise, the Sox clearly understood that a player like Jose Reyes (before the Marlins traded him to the Blue Jays) would have required the sacrifice of some of the team's top prospects.
So, there were scenarios in which the Sox might have considered moving some of their best prospects, players like shortstop Xander Bogaerts and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., or right-handers Rubby De La Rosa or Allen Webster or Matt Barnes or left-hander Henry Owens, all of whom have the potential to be impact regulars on a contending Red Sox team.
“There's always a deal where it's justifiable to give up a prospect, even a really good one,” said Cherington. “And there were some we kicked around this winter, and just, to this point, haven'ït found the one that made sense.”
And that is in no small part because of the quest for the next Lester/Buchholz. In an offseason where Zack Greinke received a six-year, $147 million deal from the Dodgers and Anibal Sanchez received a five-year, $80 million contract to return to the Tigers, the notion of the extreme cost of acquiring starting pitching via free agency was underscored dramatically.
The Red Sox have seen first-hand the cost and challenges of building a rotation while paying market-rate for veteran pitchers. The first three seasons of the five-year, $82.5 million free agent contract conferred upon John Lackey have yielded little. And the Sox were grateful to accept the life raft offered by the Dodgers, who assumed almost all of the remaining obligation to Josh Beckett, who in the second year of his four-year, $68 million deal looked like he was closer to the end of his career than its prime in 2012.
If a team can get mid- to top-of-the-rotation performance from a homegrown pitcher, in today's economic landscape, it creates the possibility of getting a player whose value to a team is $15 million to $25 million at a cost of as little as $480,000 per year.
The Red Sox recognize that. And so, in the interests of building a healthy organization for the long haul, the team is working to cultivate its next generation of impact homegrown pitching, the successors in the pipeline to Lester and Buchholz. Right now, the team does have pitching prospects at least mid-rotation ceilings. While recognizing that not all of the group of Barnes, Webster, De La Rosa, Owens and others (Brian Johnson, Brandon Workman, Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, etc. -- not to mention Felix Doubront) will reach that potential, the team recognizes that the best way to get at least a couple of top homegrown starters is by hoping that from quantity, quality emerges.
“We have some guys we really believe in. I know that from my standpoint, building a team not just for one year but over a longer time horizon, it sure is valuable to have young players with the ability to make an impact to sort of pencil into a spot here and there,” said Cherington. “The only way to do that is to keep as much young talent as you can, take guys you really believe in. We've had a couple guys kind of get their foot in the door last year with [Felix] Doubront and [Will] Middlebrooks. We expect that to continue.
“Certainly in the area of pitching, no doubt, we'd like to find that next generation of Lester, Buchholz. You guys know how valuable that was to the Red Sox when we could break those guys into the rotation. We need to start doing that again, and more often. The only way to do that is to have a number of options and a number of guys vying for those jobs.”
That outlook helps to explain why, even though the Red Sox didn't categorically rule out trading any of their top prospects this offseason, they showed little eagerness to do so.
Still, there is at least a chance that such an approach could entail compromise for 2013. But, there's also a chance that it does not -- and that the carefully preserved pitching assets become important elements in building homegrown depth options when attrition inevitably hits the Red Sox rotation at some point during the coming year.
ALEX SPEIER
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