The prospect widely viewed as the most promising pitcher in the Red Sox system is not taking part in the team’s Rookie Development Program. His absence, in turn, is revealing about the positive direction of the farm system.

After an at-times dominant first full professional season that faded to merely successful, Matt Barnes earned the title of the most highly regarded pitching prospect in the Sox system. The 22-year-old, taken in the first round of the 2011 draft, blitzed to a 0.34 ERA with an obscene 42-to-4 strikeout-to-walk rate in five Single-A starts before getting moved up to High-A.

At that level, he continued to post outstanding results for another eight starts (1.37 ERA, 53 strikeouts, 8 walks in 46 innings) before hitting something of a wall in his pro debut. In his last 12 starts, he had a 5.74 ERA.

Despite his struggles down the stretch, many saw in the right-hander a near-certain big league starter. His ability to spot a mid-90s fastball suggests someone who isn’t terribly far from big league ready; while there were questions about precisely what his curveball and changeup will become, he showed enough of an ability to spin a breaking ball that his ceiling could be either as a mid- or even top-of-the-rotation starter.

“I think Barnes’ command separates him from anyone else they have in the system,” said one talent evaluator who covered the Red Sox system in 2012. “The one thing he can really do is spot the fastball. He can probably come up here and pitch as a fifth starter, go 10-10 right now.”

Granted, the right-hander is in a tight cluster (depending on with whom one talks) along with right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster (both of whom were acquired from the Dodgers in the August blockbuster, and both of whom are taking part in the Rookie Development Program), and arguably even left-hander Henry Owens, who racked up a colossal 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings in his Single-A pro debut thanks to his advanced breaking stuff. Some evaluators would put Webster and/or De La Rosa ahead of Barnes based on breaking stuff as well as the fact that they've competed at high levels. Nonetheless, it's clear that Barnes is one of the best, if not the best, pitching prospects that the Sox have. 

Still, despite the promise shown by Barnes in that first big league season, he isn’t among the 11 prospects (four pitchers: De La Rosa, Webster, left-hander Drake Britton and knuckleballer Steven Wright) who are currently working out under the team’s supervision at the Rookie Development Program. And so it is worth asking: Why?

The answer lies in part in the nature of the program. The team takes players who are 12 to 18 months from the big leagues and familiarizes them with the idea of playing in Boston -- introducing them to members of the organization including big league staff, helping them to navigate both the city of Boston and Fenway Park -- in order to prepare them for their eventual transition from the minors to the big leagues.

All four of the pitchers who are taking part in the program have spent significant time in Double-A or higher. All four are likely to pitch in Triple-A at some point in 2013, with De La Rosa (who has already spent time in the big leagues with the Dodgers in 2011 before getting sidetracked by Tommy John surgery), Webster and Wright near-certainties for the level, and Britton in position to dictate whether he opens the year in Double-A or Triple-A based on his spring training performance. All four will represent big league depth options starting early in the coming year.

By contrast, Barnes has yet to pitch above High-A. He should start 2013 in Double-A with Portland.

Still, the idea that Barnes could be big league ready within a 12- to 18-month timetable is anything but far-fetched. Given how he exploded out of the gates at the start of 2012, it wouldn’t be a shock if he positioned himself for a late-2013 call-up.

It’s been a few years, but the Red Sox have had pitchers (Justin Masterson, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon) who were in the big leagues by their second full pro seasons, less than 12 months removed from High-A. Others, such as Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront and Kyle Weiland, took part in the Rookie Development Program after finishing seasons at High-A. Barnes’ stuff and development compares favorably to several of those pitchers at this stage of his career.

Yet for now, it would appear that he’s more likely to remain in the minors until 2013, a fact that is in no small part a reflection of the overall health of the Red Sox pitching pipeline.

For the first time in years, the Sox have a number of players who showed the stuff in the upper minors to offer depth to the big league pitching staff. That is true not just of the four pitchers who are in the Rookie Development Program (De La Rosa, Webster, Wright and Britton, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and thus likely first in line on potential call-ups) but a number of other pitchers as well.

Left-hander Chris Hernandez, who would have been part of the Rookie Development Program but for the fact that it is taking place during his honeymoon, will open the year in the Pawtucket rotation. While his stuff is hardly overpowering, he’s been one of the most consistent performers in the team’s system since getting drafted in 2010.

Right-hander Alex Wilson, who has already taken part in the program and who spent all of last year in Triple-A, represents an expected source of bullpen depth. He’s held in sufficiently high regard that he made Mark Melancon expendable in the trade for Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan.

Brandon Workman reached Double-A by the end of 2012. His combination of stuff and control suggests a pitcher who may not be far from helping in the majors, whether as a starter or reliever, in 2013 or 2014. Even Anthony Ranaudo, who had a dreadful 2012 season in which he spent the whole year fighting injuries, could find himself being not far from major league-ready if he enjoys a healthy 2013 that will start with a return to Double-A.

In other words, there’s a fairly substantial group of pitchers in the Red Sox system that makes it somewhat unlikely that Barnes will find his way onto the major league roster in 2013. Now, he could still force the team’s hand if he dominates in Double-A and/or Triple-A to the point where he looks like the best option in the minor league system should the team have a late-season need for a starter.

But more likely, given that he’s not yet on the 40-man roster, and the team has several other pitchers who are on the 40-man roster (or, in the case of Workman and/or Ranaudo, likely will be added sometime in 2013) and whose stuff suggests the ability to compete in the big leagues in the near future, Barnes’ big league ETA is more likely 2014. If all goes according to plan for the Sox, he should be a headline participant in the Rookie Development Program at this time next year, at a time when he, too, will be knocking on the door to the big leagues.

That timetable, in turn, suggests an impressive outlook for a Sox organization that acknowledges the need to cultivate impact homegrown pitching arms. That there are perhaps as many as seven starting prospects who are ahead of Barnes in their development points to a team that may be nearing a reversal of years of decline by its staff.