At the start of the offseason, it seemed like there was a profile of the type of player for whom the Red Sox might trade.
Given the team’s uncertain outlook in 2013, coming off of a 69-93 horror show in 2012, team officials acknowledged that they were inclined to hedge their bets for next season in trades. Thus, if the team was to make deals involving key prospects, the Sox front office planned to target players who would be under the team’s control for multiple seasons, impact players who addressed one of the Sox’ many areas of need.
The agreement -- not yet finalized -- with the Pirates to acquire closer Joel Hanrahan, at least at first glance, appears to be a somewhat fascinating departure from that model.
That could change, of course, once the final shape of the deal is revealed. Right now, major league sources have confirmed that the Sox will send four players to Pittsburgh (including first baseman/outfielder Jerry Sands as well as right-hander Stolmy Pimentel), with two other players -- Hanrahan and someone else -- heading to Boston.
If the deal is built around a player other than Hanrahan, one whom the Sox will control for multiple years, then perhaps this assessment will change. But if Hanrahan was the target, and the other player represents a secondary component to the deal, then it’s cause for something of a double-take.
If this was a trade foremost about landing Hanrahan, then it came with a message: The Sox believe that they have a legitimate chance at contending in 2013, something that they’re demonstrating with actions rather than platitudes.
Hanrahan is as much a win-now acquisition as one can concoct. As an arbitration-eligible closer with two All-Star appearances and five-plus years of service time on his resume, he’ll be one of the better-compensated relievers in the game. The Sox will be getting his services for one year before he can become a free agent after the 2013 season. His workload will be limited to roughly 60 innings or so, meaning that even if he’s one of the best closers in the game, head and shoulders above what the Sox had last year, he might mean an extra win or three.
But assuming that Hanrahan is the centerpiece of the Pirates deal, then the Sox are declaring that after executing much of their offseason blueprint through expensive signings of players on one-, two- and three-year deals, they believe they’re in a position where a couple of wins matter, where they could mean the difference in the pursuit of a return to not just respectability but the playoffs.
In fairness, the Sox aren't parting with any of their foremost prospects for Hanrahan. Given the roster crunch, the Sox were going to have to part with some players whom they liked but who fell below the level of cornerstone prospects. In the case of Pimentel (a 22-year-old right-hander who still has a chance to emerge as a starter, even if his more likely future now seems to be in the bullpen) and Sands (relegated to being a depth option at first base and in the outfield with the acquisitions of Gomes and Napoli), the team is dealing from depth. Still, the value of Hanrahan is in 2013 in further reinforcing the area of the Sox roster that was the strongest at the start of the offseason.
The Sox didn’t enter the offseason with a glaring need for a closer. As much of a disappointment as Andrew Bailey’s performance was in 2012 after the Sox traded for him last winter (parting with outfielder Josh Reddick and prospects Miles Head and Raul Alcantara), there was reason to shrug off his struggles (7.04 ERA) as a reflection of a surgery-derailed season that represented a departure from career-long excellence from 2009-11. Even if he faltered again in 2013, Junichi Tazawa showed more than enough stuff to emerge as a potential closer, and the team’s signing of Koji Uehara offered another late-innings alternative.
Those options suggest that another closer was a luxury item rather than a necessity. The Sox -- who, it should be noted, also had motivation to consolidate talent given that the team’s 40-man roster is full, with the need to free more spots when agreements with Stephen Drew and perhaps Mike Napoli become official -- saw value in luxury, even on a one-year basis.
Hanrahan is a talented closer, an All-Star with the Pirates in each of the last two years, during which he’s had a 2.24 ERA while striking out a batter an inning. He performed at an elite level in 2011, when he gave up just one homer and 16 walks in 68 2/3 innings.
In 2012, he had a higher strikeout rate than in his first year as the Pirates closer but also gave up eight homers and walked 36 in 59 2/3 innings. The walk rate was particularly alarming, spiking from 2.1 free passes per nine innings in 2011 to 5.4 walks per nine innings last season.
Still, his fastball was registering almost 97 mph on average, and his slider remained a wipeout offering when he commanded it. So, with the Pirates reportedly motivated to clear Hanrahan’s salary -- expected to be in excess of $7 million in 2013 -- the Sox saw an opportunity to add to a bullpen that already featured solid depth. Hanrahan is added to the mix of a group that includes Bailey, Uehara, Tazawa, Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves, Craig Breslow, Andrew Miller and Franklin Morales. (Mark Melancon, who pitched very well in September, reportedly might be included in the deal.)
One can make a case that Hanrahan offers more than short-term impact. Because of the aforementioned bullpen depth, the Sox are in position to make another trade involving one of their relievers, perhaps for prospects who -- like Pimentel and Sands -- represented potential depth for 2013 with a more likely big league impact in 2014 or later.
Still, based on what we know of the trade right now, the Sox look like a team that is convinced that an All-Star closer can be a difference-maker. In adding several players who are expected to be solid options at their positions, even if not superstars -- Shane Victorino, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, Jonny Gomes, David Ross, Uehara and perhaps Napoli -- the Sox feel like their competitive baseline has been raised with an array of average to above-average players at all of their positions of need.
While the roster offers few guarantees (aside from a considerable improvement over the horror show of the final weeks of last season), the team clearly sees possibility in it, perhaps a team capable of anything from a mid-80s to (if everything breaks right) a low-90s win total. In Hanrahan, the team nudges up its potential upside (assuming he returns to All-Star form) by perhaps a couple of wins, a move that has a chance to be a difference-maker come the end of 2013.
As a player who is eligible for free agency after next year, Hanrahan represents the Sox’ most ambitious commitment to the notion that it’s worth fighting for every possible win in 2013 in pursuit of a playoff berth. He’s the most noteworthy symbol of the team’s belief that it can contend next year.
ALEX SPEIER
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