The Red Sox’ work with their lineup and position playing core isn’t done, but it’s not far from it. Starting pitching is another story.
The market for rotation help has been slower to develop this offseason than its positional counterpart. To date, there have been a few players to move on relatively brief deals, whether Dan Haren to the Nationals on a one-year, $13 million deal, or Joe Blanton going to the Angels for two years and $15 million.
But with 2009 Cy Young winner Zach Greinke still on the free agent market, there’s a giant domino that has yet to topple. When he does move, there is likely to be a trickle-down effect, and it’s when that occurs that the trade market finally proves ready to accelerate. And that is when the Sox’ offseason will truly get interesting.
To date, the team already has had its fair share of surprises. The early addition of catcher David Ross on a two-year deal came out of nowhere, as the Sox added to a position where many expected them to be set. The agreement with right-hander Koji Uehara -- possessor of the greatest career strikeout-to-walk ratio (8-to-1) in major league history (min. 100 innings) -- to a one-year deal also came as a bolt from the blue.
Still, given the team’s resources and financial flexibility, and the value that both players can add to the roster, those moves were relative no-brainers. Even the team’s signings of Mike Napoli and Shane Victorino to twin three-year, $39 million deals was relatively straightforward, given that both players addressed key needs and came without a cost in prospects or draft picks but instead just money -- something that the Sox have in bountiful supply -- while also having only limited risk given the ages of both players and the relative consistency of both players’ careers.
But when it comes to starting pitching, things may get a bit more complicated. The team isn’t engaged on Greinke. Free agent Anibal Sanchez would represent an excellent fit given his age (28), performance (196 innings per year over the last three years, 3.70 ERA, 8.1 strikeouts per nine, 2.8 walks per nine), but as the fallback free agent option behind Greinke, there’s a good chance he’ll get more than four years -- thus taking him to a point where the Sox are unlikely to remain comfortable staying in the bidding.
The team remains engaged on Ryan Dempster, who delivered consistent performance in the Cubs rotation over the last five years, though the 35-year-old is looking for a three-year deal while using Haren’s $13 million a year as a baseline. A starter such as Brandon McCarthy is on the market, a 29-year-old who delivered tremendous performance (3.29 ERA, 6.3 strikeouts per nine, 1.6 walks per nine) in Oakland over the last two years but who has never made as many as 25 starts in a season. There’s Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum, Jair Jurrjens as an upside play …
Most of those options come with risk, however. The length of term on pitchers becomes problematic when dealing with free agency, and by the time they reach free agency, most pitchers represent considerable risks in terms of either health or performance inconsistency.
And so, when staring at that market reality, the Sox may end up facing a choice. To trade or not?
A year ago, once C.J. Wilson and Mark Buehrle were peeled off the top of the free agent market, the trade market stirred, with Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos and Michael Pineda all getting dealt as young, controllable starters. The cost for each was considerable. Gonzalez and Latos netted four-prospect hauls. Pineda required the Yankees to part with a player who was viewed as one of the preeminent hitting prospects in the game (Jesus Montero).
This year, while the names that might float into the trade market have remained fairly well guarded (aside from the potential that the White Sox might consider dealing Gavin Floyd; the Rays -- an unlikely partner for the Sox -- are contemplating offers for some of their outstanding stable of pitchers, most notably James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson; the Mets are listening on R.A. Dickey and, to a lesser degree, Jon Niese), it’s clear that there will be an active swap meet for starters. The Sox seem eager for that to take shape.
“The pitching side of things still hasn’t really emerged. From a trade perspective, those things are always really complicated, because you need other participants whereas in free agency, you don’t need another participant. You just need a wallet,” Red Sox assistant GM Mike Hazen said on WEEI’s Red Sox Hot Stove Show on Thursday. “Even on the free agent side of things, the pitchers haven’t really seemed to move that much yet. I don’t know if teams are waiting for the big fish to fall before they get in. ... We’ll see how that all comes together as we move forward.”
Certainly, the Sox seem poised to engage on a number of potential trade targets. The team is unlikely to move either Xander Bogaerts or Jackie Bradley Jr., given that both would be extremely difficult to replace. In the case of Bogaerts, players with the ceilings of superstars who are at the infancy of their careers (thus costing money) are simply too valuable to trade, since they permit a team not only to have a player with tremendous impact, but also to have the financial freedom to make major signings. Bradley represents the Sox’ future in center field starting next year.
But while the team’s unwillingness to deal those two players might take it out of some conversations (for instance, according to one major league source, the Mets wouldn’t consider dealing Dickey to the Sox without the inclusion of either Bradley or Bogaerts), the team still has some organizational strengths to create the potential for a bold move for a starter. The variety of chips that the Sox feature is diverse.
The team has three well-regarded pitching prospects in right-handers Matt Barnes, Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster. Those right-handers have the sort of high-ceiling arms to get a conversation started. A bit below them, there are other potential big league starters like Brandon Workman and Drake Britton and Henry Owens who would fit different kinds of profiles in building a prospect package for a potential deal.
Similarly, the team has catching depth that could make either Ryan Lavarnway or Jarrod Saltalamacchia expendable. The signing of Shane Victorino, at least in theory, could allow the Sox to turn Jacoby Ellsbury into a chip (the Sox, according to a source familiar with their thinking, will only listen to offers on him that allow them to make considerable upgrades to their big league rotation).
Even beyond Ellsbury and Bradley, the team has other outfielders who would represent viable chips. Bryce Brentz, a corner outfielder with big power potential who will open next year in Triple-A, has prospect value. So, to lesser degrees, do players like Brandon Jacobs (coming off a down year, in part due to injury, but with a compelling combination of power and speed) and Keury De La Cruz (after a breakthrough 20-20 season in A-ball in 2012), and Daniel Nava and Ryan Kalish.
The move to land Uehara could allow the team to consider moves involving other areas of the bullpen, whether with the trio of left-handers (Franklin Morales, Andrew Miller, Craig Breslow) or, more likely, right-handers such as Alfredo Aceves (whose value was, of course, diminished by his issues with the team), Andrew Bailey or, if the team swallowed hard, Junichi Tazawa, whose trade value might never be higher than after his outrageous performance at the end of 2012.
If the Sox want to get a young, controllable starter with less wear on his arm than the free agent pool features, they have some inventory from which to deal. If there are teams that need starting pitching prospects, they can talk. Catchers? Check. Relievers? Sure. A center fielder who was once an AL MVP runner-up? The team will listen. Minor league outfielders with intriguing ceilings? OK.
The team’s early signings this offseason have given it more flexibility to consider trades involving catchers, outfielders and relievers. The summer blockbuster with the Dodgers gave the team greater flexibility to consider trading frontline pitching prospects. The net result is that the team should be positioned where it can get involved in the trade market for starters once it forms.
“Certainly [the team’s accumulation of depth at some positions] opens up avenues in the future because you’re dealing from positions of strength and not just positions of weakness,” said Hazen.
However, the team’s potential ability to make a deal doesn’t mean that it will be inclined to pull the trigger. As much as the Sox have accumulated depth for a trade, they’re also mindful that they need to have depth to withstand injuries (2012 offered a compelling reminder of that notion). Moreover, after having made so many moves this offseason to upgrade the 2013 team without diminishing the building blocks of the 2014 team and beyond, the team is reluctant to damage its future foundation.
“We just stay engaged in all of those things, and as the market moves and it presents itself, you have a choice. You have your choice to get in or get out,” said Hazen. “We believe heavily, strongly, that that wave of players that’s coming up over the next two or three years, starting next year and moving into the next two and three years is the core of this team moving forward.
“That’s an area of surplus that can also be looked at as an area of depth. … Your depth consists of the guys that may be in his 30s at the major league level, if he gets hurt, you’re relying on the guys playing at Pawtucket to come and infuse talent onto the roster that may help get you into the playoffs,” he added. “We’re in a position in certain areas. Nothing is imminent on any front right now. We’ll see how those sorts of things emerge.”
ALEX SPEIER
In the latest edition of the "It Is What It Is" podcast, Chris Price and CSNNE's Mike Giardi take a look at the Patriots offseason on both sides of the ball, try and get a handle on which new guys will make an impact first, and whether or not the Patriots have altered their style when it comes to drafting and developing wide receivers.
Mike Florio joined the program to discuss the Jets decision to release Tim Tebow, he said the situation is as disaster all around for the Jets and that the problems begins with owner Woody Johnson. Mike also said that he was disappointed with the Pats moving back in the first round.
One of the hardest working men in the biz, Mike Petraglia aka "Trags", sits down with Butch Stearns live in Foxborough to help break down all the latest Pats moves. He discusses his reaction to the trade in Round 1 and the guys those picks produced. Also, the boys talk about the decent trade the Pats made in acquiring LeGarrette Blount from Tampa Bay for Jeff Demps and a 7th rounder.
We check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
Jackie Mac joins the show to discuss the trade rumors swirling around Paul Pierce, KG, Doc Rivers and the Celtics. She also discusses the future of the Celtics head coach.
Stephen A. joined the program to discuss the trade rumors he has reported regarding a possible trade including Doc Rivers and the Clippers. Stephen A. also told the guys that he has heard that Danny and Doc may be tiring of working together.
Joe Castiglione talked with John Lackey after he picked up the W against the Twins. Lackey threw seven innings, and retired the 1st twelve batters of the game.
Dave O'Brien talked to John Farrell before the end of the Twins series. The Sox skipper said that Big Papi's success is no surprise given his work ethic.
John Farrell postgame press conference
Dale and DJ roll on with their puck talk and chat some more about the goalie matchup in this series, as well as the lack of a quality power play for both of these teams. In fact, DJ says the Rangers are even worse on the PP than the B’s! The guys also get into the resurgence of Milan Lucic and his deceptive speed and grit. Dale and DJ talk about the similar styles of play for these teams and look forward to Game 2.
Dale and DJ get into the two coaches and their polar opposite styles and demeanor. Both teams play a similar style, but the coaches certainly convey their messages in a different way. Dale isn't buying the Tortorella hype and thinks he's a little overrated. DJ thinks he's a good coach, but isn't a fan of anti-media stance. The guys also talk about Jagr and how he has not lived up to the hype. They weren't expecting him to light it up or be the savior, but DJ says he wasn't prepared for just how slow the aging veteran is. Another big topic for B's fans this season is the play of Tyler Seguin and why he has yet to become the superstar everyone anticipates he will be. This leads to Claude Julien's style and if he does actually have something against the younger players. That Iginla trade shows its ugly head again as well.
WEEI.com's DJ Bean joins Dale in studio for Sports Sunday to discuss the Bruins playoff run. Game 2 is later today and the guys discuss the results of the first game of the series. They get into the construction of the lines for the B's and if they would make any changes. DJ has a few ideas for the lines today. The boys also discuss the two goalies - Tuukka vs Henrik Lundqvist and wonder why people automatically think the Rangers have the edge at goalie. Finally, they get into the legacy and the decisions of Claude Julien and Peter Chiarelli.
Shawn joined the program to discuss another overtime win for the Bruins. When asked about Game 7 against Toronto, Thornton said that he would like to keep his specific comments in the dressing room private, but acknowledged that he encouraged Tyler Seguin to up his play and it paid off in overtime.
Barry joined the guys to help breakdown the Bruins overtime win last night in game one. Barry said that he has rarely seen a team dominate as much as the Bruins yet be forced to an overtime.
Boomer joined the program to discuss the tough loss for his beloved Rangers. Boomer told the guys that Lundqvist will be better in game two and predicted a seven game series.
Bruins rookie defenseman Matt Bartkowski has emerged as one of the young stars of the team and he joins Mut and Tom Caron to discuss his role on the team, why he's confident, and the trade that almost sent him to Calgary.
Millar joins the show to discuss the recent Sox slide, Jacoby Ellsbury's lack of power, and hitting in the big leagues.
Andy Brickley joins the show to discuss the Bruins Game 1 win over the Rangers, the play of the three young Bruins defensemen, and the fatigue Jagr has shown on the ice.
We talk all things game one with Jack Edwards of NESN, and get to hear a little from Jack's Finnish protege as well.
We tackle four topics we haven't yet touched upon today.. Joe Thornton and disappointing former Boston athletes, parking in Boston, buying jersey numbers and more...
We talk about the report that Rob Gronkowski may now be a candidate for back surgery with a disc problem. Is Gronk just an injury prone guy? Or is he not rehabbing proberly? Can the Pats build an offense around a guy who is so inconsistently on the field? We discuss.
The Bruins have almost finished raking the Leafs, the Red Sox struggle from the mound, Miami Heat fans show their level of class.
Daily Planet Wednesday May 8th
Today on the Daily Planet the Bruins take a 2-1 series lead, the Red Sox get a run-off win, and we hear about cannibals and bible thieves.
Sounds like a prostate exam to me!
Damn New Yorkers!
Sauce Man stylings!
Linda explains how the shootout transpired in Watertown during the early morning hours. She saw the first suspect mortally wounded and police beginning the manhunt for the second suspect.
More from this showWe check in with Danny Ainge for our first talk to him since the Celtics season ended last weekend. We talk about the future of the team, KG, Pierce, Doc Rivers and more, as Danny directly answers the rumors being floated by ESPN's Stephen A. Smith.
More from this showBuster Olney joins the show to discuss the muddled AL East, the average play of Ellsbury and how that will affect him in free agency, and Tropicana Field.
More from this showDale Arnold joined the program to preview the Bruins Rangers series with John, Gerry and Kirk. Dale thinks the Bruins have the advantage in the series over New York.
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