Why is it that Mike Napoli appears to be the free agent whom the Red Sox are pursuing most aggressively? How did a player who hit .227 in 2012 become so important that principal owner John Henry took part in his recruiting dinner?
A case can be made that no free agent better fits the Sox’ balancing act of present and future this offseason than Napoli. That is a reflection not just of his skill set -- a meat-grinder of an approach at the plate that yields a combination of strong on-base abilities, high pitch-count at-bats and considerable power (he averaged roughly a home run every four games he played with the Rangers) -- but also of the market alternatives and the shape of the Red Sox farm system.
Start with the latter. The upper levels of the Red Sox farm system are deeper in legitimate prospects than they’ve been in years, with intriguing options who are close to big league ready at nearly every position -- with one exception.
“We've focused a lot on athletes, on middle-of-the-field players, on pitching. I would say if there's any area that we're not as deep in, it's the sort of corner bats, first base/corner bats,” Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington explained in September on a WEEI.com Minor Details podcast. “Relative to the past, we may not be as deep in that. We've got some guys -- Travis Shaw had a great year, and he's going to be a good major league hitter -- but that's an area that relatively speaking is not as deep.”
Shaw had a very strong albeit oft-overlooked season for the Sox. He demonstrated one of the best plate approaches in the system, showing excellent command of the strike zone, the ability to get on base at a terrific clip and showed intriguing power potential.
The 22-year-old, in his first full pro season after being taken out of Kent State in the ninth round of the 2011 draft, hit .287 with a .397 OBP, .517 slugging mark, .915 OPS and 19 homers between High-A Salem and Double-A Portland. His 66 extra-base hits were the most of any Red Sox minor leaguer this year, and his made-for-Fenway ability to slam the ball to left-center suggests that he has the potential to be a doubles machine if he makes it to the Red Sox.
However, as one might expect, he put up considerably better numbers in Salem (.305/.411/.545/.957, 16 homers in 99 games) than he did after his promotion to Double-A (.227/.353/.427/.781, 3 homers in 31 games). He should open 2013 back in Double-A, so even if he continues to build upon what he showed this year -- a player capable of being a solid defensive first baseman with high on-base percentages and perhaps average power for a first baseman -- he wouldn’t enter the team’s plans until sometime in 2014 at the earliest, and realistically, even if he continues to build on his promising 2012 season rather than enduring a normal developmental setback, the team can’t project him to be an everyday first baseman until the 2015 season.
Of all the Sox’ areas of need entering this offseason -- the two corner outfield spots, starting pitcher, first base, perhaps shortstop -- the biggest gap in the Sox’ system is first base.
The team has multiple players who could emerge as starting big league outfielders by the 2014 season -- among them, Jackie Bradley Jr., Ryan Kalish and Bryce Brentz.
The team has some intriguing volume in its upper levels starting pitching prospects, including arms such as Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Drake Britton, Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes and Anthony Ranaudo, with the chance to thrust themselves into consideration for a big league rotation spot by 2014 (and in some cases earlier).
At short, Jose Iglesias is viewed as being close to big league ready; there’s a reasonable chance that he’ll be the team’s Opening Day shortstop.
But at first base, the Sox have a void this year and barring a jump in Shaw’s developmental pace, there’s a good chance that they’ll still be in need of a starter in 2014 as well. So, as a first baseman, Napoli occupies a position of pressing short-, medium- and, depending on Shaw’s progress, perhaps even long-term need.
And, within the available alternatives at first base, there’s a strong case to be made that Napoli is the most appealing because he comes without a cost to the team’s future. When the Rangers declined to make a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to Napoli, he likely vaulted ahead of the other alternatives in a weak free-agent class of first basemen because unlike other top options on the market, he won’t cost the team that signs him a draft pick.
Adam LaRoche of the Nationals represents the best mix of offense and defense at the position. However, he represents a buy-high proposition, coming off a 2012 season in which he slammed a career-high 33 homers with an .853 OPS. But he received a qualifying offer from the Nationals, so he would cost the Sox (or any other team that signs him, aside from the Nationals) a draft pick. Moreover, LaRoche just turned 33, perhaps explaining why there appears to be less comfort from the Sox with the idea of a deal of three or more years for LaRoche than there is for Napoli, who recently turned 31.
Nick Swisher, who turned 32 on Sunday, is also hunting for a long-term deal, coming off a season in line with his career norms (he hit .272/.364/.473 in 2012, compared to a career line of .256/.361/.467). But, like LaRoche, he will also require not just a long-term commitment but also a draft pick, as the Yankees made a qualifying offer to him.
The Sox are in line to pick seventh in the first round, a spot in the draft that is protected. Still, even though the cost of signing a player who received a qualifying offer is no more than a second-round pick, the Sox are loathe to part with even that selection, given that such a selection would represent a top-50 pick and would permit the team to add approximately $1 million to its bonus pool -- a major consideration under the new rules of the draft.
So, in some ways, Napoli represents a perfect storm when it comes to the Sox’ interest in pursuing a competitive team for 2013 that doesn’t impair the team’s long-term outlook. As a first baseman, he plays the position of greatest need in the Sox organization. Signing him to a multi-year deal likely wouldn’t block the progress of anyone in the Sox system for at least a couple years. And as a player who won’t cost a signing team a draft pick, he represents a way of addressing a key shortcoming of the Sox without impairing the team’s ability to continue to accumulate prospects.
All of that goes a long way in explaining why Napoli has occupied a somewhat unexpected central place in the Sox’ offseason to date.
ALEX SPEIER
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