Since the trade that blew up his roster in August, Red Sox GM Ben Cherington often has referred to the desire to create the “next great Red Sox team,” the clubs of 2003-08 on which David Ortiz was a centerpiece. On Friday, Ortiz and the team reached a two-year, $26 million commitment intended to keep him in Boston to be a part, potentially, of the next club worthy of such a designation.
Whereas Ortiz didn’t have a true market for his services last winter, when the Sox’ offer of salary arbitration effectively chilled other teams’ interest in a multi-year deal for the slugger (and when other elite players such as Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were on the market), this year, Ortiz -- who receives a $1 million signing bonus, $14 million salary in 2013 and $11 million in 2014, along with incentives that could add up to $4 million to the deal -- stood out.
Though he was limited to 90 games in 2012, but when on the field, he hit .318/.415/.611/1.026. For the sake of context: he led the AL in OBP, slugging and OPS among players with 300 or more plate appearances, surpassing Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera in all of those categories.
The Sox have a player who, if healthy, is the most productive DH in the majors. He gives the Sox lineup a true middle-of-the-order force, an increasingly rare mixture of power and the ability to get on base at a tremendous level.
There were just five players in the majors last year with an OBP as high as .400 and a slugging percentage in excess of .500 with a minimum of 300 plate appearances. No one else on the free-agent market, save for Melky Cabrera -- whose career-best .390 OBP and .516 slugging percentage were tagged with an asterisk when he tested positive for steroids -- came close. Josh Hamilton, considered the top position player on the open market this winter, had a .354 OBP and .577 slugging mark.
The dropoff from Ortiz to anyone else at DH was likely (presuming that Ortiz can continue to perform in line with his career norms) to be precipitous. The Sox learned that the hard way in 2012, when their DH production cratered after Ortiz suffered his Achilles injury on July 16.
The Red Sox record on that date was 46-44, one game out of the wild card race. The team was tied for the big league lead in runs per game (5.0). From that point forward, the team was 23-49, good for a .319 winning percentage that was the third worst in the majors while scoring 3.9 runs per game (23rd in the majors). During that time, the team’s designated hitters had a combined .238 average, .295 OBP and .338 slugging percentage.
Undoubtedly, there were other major factors in the Sox’ downward spiral -- season-ending injuries for Will Middlebrooks and Carl Crawford, the trade of Adrian Gonzalez, the unsteady trials for young players like Jose Iglesias and Ryan Lavarnway -- but the absence of one of the best hitters in baseball left an unquestionable void. The Sox didn’t want to go through that again.
And so, Ortiz received the two-year deal he had coveted for so long, and the Sox will be paying him less per year than the $14.575 million they spent on him in 2012. It’s possible that the Sox could have held out, played hardball and gotten him either on a one-year deal or at a lower average annual salary by waiting out the market.
But at a time when the team has tremendous financial flexibility (in contrast to last year, when the Gonzalez and Crawford deals left the team with little money to play with in the short- and long-terms), signing Ortiz didn’t represent an opportunity cost. The team could afford to bring him back on this deal, and if the Sox harbor any hopes of contending in 2013, they couldn’t afford to let their longtime lineup centerpiece walk.
Obviously, there is some risk involved for the Sox. Ortiz turns 37 this month, and he missed almost half a season in 2012 due to his Achilles injury (though it’s worth noting that he and the team suggested on multiple occasions that his injury was a strain rather than a rupture, and that he was expected to make a complete recovery).
Even so, the risks can be exaggerated. Over the last five years -- after the 2002-07 peak of Ortiz’s career, when he landed five straight top-five finishes in AL MVP balloting -- Ortiz has a .900 OPS and a 135 OPS+ (meaning an OPS, adjusted for park factors, that is 35 percent better than league average). He’s one of 70 players in big league history with an OPS+ of 130 or better during his age 32-36 seasons (minimum 2,500 plate appearances).
How did his predecessors who performed at such a level hold up as they continued to age? Of those 70 players, seven never played another game. Of the remaining 63, more than a third (23 of 63, or 37 percent) maintained an OPS+ of 130 or higher in their age 37-38 seasons; more than half (35 of 63, or 57 percent) had an OPS+ of 120 or higher in those years; and the vast majority (50 of 63, or 79 percent) had an OPS+ of at least league average or better.
Durability is in many ways the greater concern than performance. The 63 players from that group who played beyond their age 36 seasons averaged 784 plate appearances (392 per year). Only 26 of the 63 players (41 percent) who stuck around had as many as 1,000 plate appearances in their age 37-38 seasons; 32 of the 63 (51 percent) had 800 or more.
Still, those numbers are slightly misleading, since a number of players in the group didn’t play after age 37, with many retiring (one notable exception: Roberto Clemente died in a tragic plane crash as a 37-year-old). Among the 49 players who continued to play through their age 38 season, the average number of plate appearances jumps up to 929 (465 per year), with 53 percent of those players having reached 1,000 plate appearances.
In other words, a player with the history of Ortiz’ offensive production is likely to remain an above-average, and potentially well above-average, player. While his ability to remain on the field likely will decline, odds still favor him remaining healthy enough to impact the team’s lineup in significant fashion.
And again, given Ortiz’s track record, the Sox faced a fairly stark reality. How could the Sox replace Ortiz if he left? With great difficulty. At a time when they have considerable flexibility with their resources, what might re-signing Ortiz to this contract prevent the team from doing? In all likelihood, very little.
This isn’t a seven-year deal at $20 million a season that would tie the team’s hands in this offseason or, in all likelihood, next. Despite the fact that there are some risks, this contract represents an acceptable set of terms for a player who still ranks as one of the most productive in the game, and the most important player in the team's most memorable successes.
ALEX SPEIER
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