It’s the pitching, stupid. 

That variation on an election theme that is now two decades old looms over the Red Sox’ offseason. In light of the managerial hiring that became official Sunday, it is impossible to overlook the centrality of the need by the Sox to upgrade their pitching staff if they hope to return to contention anytime soon. 

John Farrell was hired because the Red Sox are convinced that he is a leader capable of commanding the respect of an entire clubhouse. His years overseeing hundreds of prospects in the Indians farm system prepared him to connect with the complete spectrum of players, regardless of personalities, skill sets or position. 

Nonetheless, the fact that he arrives as Red Sox manager with an unquestioned ability to govern the team’s pitching staff -- and that he was present for the best performances turned in by several of the team’s pitchers, including the four returning starters -- represents a noteworthy consideration. 

After all, the Sox are amidst a dramatic transformation of their everyday lineup with uncertain outcomes. With the identity of starters at five positions (first base, shortstop, left field, right field, DH) in question, the team can’t necessarily bank on the idea that it will have one of the most prolific lineups in the game. 

But even if the restructuring of the everyday position players goes swimmingly, that won’t be enough if the Sox continue the trend that dates back to their September 2011 collapse and prove incapable of getting strong contributions from their rotation. It seems safe to say that the team will go nowhere in 2013 (and possibly for some time after) if it fails to restore the likes of Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz to top-of-the-rotation performers while also putting Felix Doubront and John Lackey in position to back them up as solid contributors. 

One need look no further than the beginning of the unraveling of the Red Sox. In September 2011, the Sox ranked third in the majors with 146 runs. Yet that wasn’t good enough to prevent the team’s 7-20 death spiral, a period that resulted in large part because the team’s rotation had a 7.08 ERA in that final month. From last Sept. 1 through the end of this year, the Sox rotation owned a gruesome 5.42 ERA.

On paper, there is no way that the Sox should have had such a lousy rotation this year. Lester made all his starts. Buchholz took the mound 29 times, as did Doubront. All three pitchers have the stuff that suggests that they should have been elite performers. But inconsistency riddled the rotation, to the point where Buchholz’s 4.56 ERA somehow was the best among any rotation regular. 

Rewind. In 2010, Farrell’s last year as Red Sox pitching coach, both Buchholz and Lester had arguably the most dominant seasons of their careers. They appeared to be the pillars on which the success of the Red Sox could be based for years to come; both showed evidence of steady improvement that resulted in the Sox featuring a pair of All-Star starters. (As a footnote, it's worth noting that Farrell's adamant advocacy for Lester as a future top-of-the-rotation starter after the 2007 season played a considerable role in the Sox' decision not to trade him to the Twins as part of a package for Johan Santana.)

Instead of continuing that trend, however, both have seen their ERAs go up in each of the two seasons since Farrell migrated to Toronto. Indeed, of the seven pitchers who have logged at least 10 innings for the Red Sox in each of the last three seasons, five -- Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Daniel Bard -- have seen their ERAs go up in both 2011 and 2012. (Scott Atchison’s ERAs have gone down in each of the last two years, while Josh Beckett’s declined in 2011 then bumped back up in 2012.)

Will Farrell be able to help reverse that trend? That’s anyone’s guess. He’s being hired as the manager this time around rather than the pitching coach. 

The limited evidence from his time in Toronto makes it difficult to discern what kind of impact he can have on a pitching staff. There were six Blue Jays pitchers who were in Toronto in 2010 (the year before Farrell’s arrival) and during parts of both years of his managerial tenure. All of them saw an ERA increase in one year and a decrease in another under Farrell. 

Most notably, putative Jays ace Ricky Romero had a breakthrough season in 2011, with his ERA tumbling to 2.92. Yet in 2012, he endured a derailment even more drastic than Lester’s, with his ERA nearly doubling to 5.77, the highest ERA in the majors of any pitcher with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title since 2008. 

Still, the Sox have faith in Farrell’s ability to connect with and get the best out of the players on their team. And if the team hopes to return to dignity following the train wreck that started in the final month of the 2011 season, that seems a critical place to start. 

For while the Sox will be rebuilding their lineup, their starting rotation is somewhat more fixed. The team plans to bring back four starters, leaving just one spot open. Coming off a season in which the rotation had a 5.19 ERA (27th in the majors, last in the AL East), the idea of restoring order through the addition of a single starter this offseason carries only so much weight. The Sox must figure out a way to get all of their starters to make considerable steps forward. 

If they do so, then the idea of returning to contention in 2013 enters the realm of possibility. The Sox scored 734 runs in 2012, eighth most in the American League -- more than an Orioles team that reached the playoffs (712, 15th), more than a similarly playoff-bound A’s squad (713, 14th), more than a Rays club that won 90 games (697, 18th) and, for that matter, more than the World Series-bound Tigers (726, 11th).

Teams that could pitch won. Seven of the nine teams with the lowest ERAs in the majors were in the postseason. Nine of the 10 clubs that reached the playoffs ranked in the top half of ERAs. Only the Rangers, whose 3.99 ERA was 16th in the majors, finished in the bottom half of baseball in that category while reaching the playoffs. 

All of that serves as the backdrop surrounding the selection of Farrell as Red Sox manager. Was his ability to connect with the pitching staff in the past his only asset? Far from it. Indeed, it wasn’t even necessarily his most important trait. The Sox hired him because he immediately would claim the respect and trust of every critical Red Sox constituency -- the players, the front office, the owners ... everyone in the organization. 

Still, there is no question that the first step to transforming the Red Sox from one of the worst teams in baseball back to one of the best begins with an effort to transform a talented but underperforming group of pitchers back into an elite staff. That familiar reality confronts Farrell as he prepares to lead the Sox going forward.